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voda 2 juni 2017 16:24

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Nickel falls to 11 month low on supply and demand worries

The Age reported that nickel prices tumbled to 11 month lows on investor concern over rising supply from top producers Indonesia and the Philippines as well as weak demand from stainless steel mills in China. Benchmark nickel on the London Metal Exchange ended down 1.6% at USD 8970 a tonne from an earlier USD 8825 its lowest since late June.

Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar said that "People are looking at the potential for higher supplies from Indonesia and the Philippines and getting very bearish. Demand from the stainless sector is particularly weak."

President Rodrigo Duterte this month appointed a former military man as the new environment minister after Congress dismissed his first choice, who had ordered the closure of more than half of the mines in the world's top nickel ore supplier.

The relaxation in January of Indonesia's ban on exporting unprocessed nickel ore in place since the start of 2014 has added to concerns over rising supply.

About two thirds of global nickel supply is used to make stainless steel, most of which is produced in China.

SocGen's Mr Bhar said that "I think the downside is pretty limited. Prices are below the marginal cost or the 90th percentile, which adjusted for currency and other things is around USD 10,300/ USD 10,400.”

Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note that "Prices will remain trading at very low levels through 2017 and much of 2018, until a substantial supply response both in China and outside of China eradicates our forecast surplus of 37,000 tonnes in 2017 and about 100,000 in 2018.”

Traders said that high inventories are also a negative for prices. Stocks at more than 378,000 tonnes account for almost 20% of global consumption estimated at nearly 2 million tonnes this year.

The Age
Source : The Age

voda 5 juni 2017 16:04

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Nickel prices slides to 11 month low on oversupply concerns

Reuters reported that nickel fell to an 11 month low on Thursday as resumption in exports from Indonesia and the prospect of a recovery in output from the Philippines stoked concerns about oversupply. Nickel prices fell for a third straight month in May and hit their lowest since June last year on Thursday at USD 8,810 a tonne. They have fallen 12 percent this year, the biggest drop among major base metals.

ING commodities strategist Warren Patterson said that "We saw the nickel ore export ban lifted in Indonesia, so we've seen Antam, for example, start exporting nickel ore to China. The other potential big change going forward is the change in the environmental secretary in the Philippines. Market expectations are that we could see some sort of relaxation in policy. So where we saw 21 mines shut or suspended, we could see some of them coming back online."

Nickel was also caught up in broader negative sentiment after a survey showed China's manufacturing activity contracted unexpectedly in May as demand weakened and falling factory prices dented profits. However, copper recovered lost ground after upbeat US manufacturing data.

LME NICKEL
Three month nickel on the London Metal Exchange closed at USD 8,840 a tonne, down 1.4%

PHILIPPINES
President Rodrigo Duterte appointed a former army general as environment minister after Congress dismissed his first choice, who had ordered the closure of more than half of the mines in the world's top nickel ore supplier.

Source : Reuters

voda 7 juni 2017 17:03

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Nickel touched a near one-year low - Andy Home

Reuters reported that nickel touched a near one-year low of USD 8,700 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange last week. But it has recovered a little to USD 8,900 this on June 6th 2017 but that still makes it by some margin the worst performer among the major LME-traded industrial metals with a year-to-date decline of over 10 percent.

And, if you believe Goldman Sachs, the stainless steel ingredient is going to stay at these bombed-out levels for a good while.

The Wall Street heavyweight has just downgraded its three-month, six-month and 12 month price forecasts to USD 9,000-per tonne from USD 12,500, USD 11,000 and USD 11,000 respectively.

According to Goldman, "We now expect that nickel prices will remain trading at very low levels through 2017 and much of 2018 until a substantial supply response both in China and outside of China eradicates our forecast surplus of 37,000 tonnes in 2017 and circa 100,000 tonnes in 2018.”

This marks the collapse of nickel's previous bull narrative of mass mine closures in the Philippines.

As that scenario rapidly recedes, nickel is once again facing a long war of producer attrition to rebalance supply with demand.

As recently as March, LME three-month nickel was on a bull roll, trading above the USD 11,000 level.

The market's exuberance was down to one woman, Regina Lopez, eco-warrior turned environmental minister in the Philippines.

She put just about every single nickel miner in the country on notice of closure, threatening the removal of around eight percent of global supply and a termination of the flow of ore to China's giant nickel pig iron sector.

And then at the start of last month she was gone, having failed to win endorsement from the government's Commission on Appointments.

Some smaller mines remain suspended. But most look set to continue operating with Lopez' replacement, former military chief Roy Cimatu, immediately adopting a more conciliatory stance.

After slumping by 20 percent to 2.3 million tonnes in the first quarter of this year, China's imports from the Philippines jumped to 1.69 million tonnes in April. The year-to-date figure is now down by a much more modest 4 percent on last year.

This collective stay of execution for Philippine's nickel mines has seen nickel's supply-side story implode.

Compounding bulls' misery is the near simultaneous resumption of nickel ore flows from Indonesia.

It was Indonesia's ban on the export of unprocessed ores at the start of 2014 that caused Philippine nickel supply to surge in compensation.

A part political U-turn of that policy will see significant stocks shipped out of the country.

The combination of continued ore supply from the Philippines and a partial resumption of supply from Indonesia means the immediate raw materials pressure is off China's NPI producers.

Source : Reuters

voda 8 juni 2017 16:55

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Philippine nickel miners unhappily with the resumption of Indonesia nickel ore

Andy Home wrote that a more conciliatory tone in the Philippines towards nickel miners unhappily coincided with the resumption of nickel ore flowing out of Indonesia, and major producers having the potential to ramp up idled capacity. He said the supply chain was still living with the consequences of nickel’s extraordinary bull run to over USD 50,000 per tonne in 2006 and 2007, which had sparked the new supply stream of China’s nickel pig iron.

His comments echo those made by Mining Journal columnist Tim Treadgold weeks ago, after nickel dropped to USD 8,952 per tonne earlier in May.

Mr Home said the world had been “wishing it [NPI] away” ever since but this looked an increasingly remote prospect. He said that “Which means nickel producers are back to square one, a last-man-standing fight for survival.”

Source : Mining Journal

voda 9 juni 2017 16:40

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Low prices to pile more pressure on nickel miners

Daily Times reported that global nickel miners are coming under renewed pressure to cut costs or close capacity as a flood of cheap ore pushes prices to one-year lows, with analysts seeing little prospect of recovery.

Indonesia and the Philippines are ramping up shipments of nickel ore after Indonesia relaxed an ore export ban earlier this year and a hardline Filipino environmentalist was ousted from the country's mining ministry.

Nickel ore is popular as a cheaper alternative to refined metal for China's vast steel mills, which use the metal to add strength to stainless steel.

The renewed supply comes as the market is already struggling with softening demand and high stocks, leading a slew of banks to slash their forecasts despite prices having already fallen 60% since mid-2014 80% from their 2007 peak.

Citi recently told clients that for the first time in 10 years it saw little chance of a rally in the short, medium or long term.

Mr Mark Pervan at consultancy AME Group in Sydney said that "Miners have been holding on as long as they can. They will be close to running out of wiggle room in terms of cutting costs. We need to see some reasonably sized refined capacity cutbacks to restore prices and confidence back to the market."

Consultant Wood Mackenzie estimates that more than half of the world's nickel industry is running at a loss. High cost mines include those in the Dominican Republic, Greece, Cuba, Western Australia and New Caledonia, analysts said.

Brazil's Vale has already said that it plans to suspend two of its older high-cost Canadian mines this year.

Vale spokesman Cory McPhee said that "Prices have persisted for some time now and our focus throughout this period has been on reducing costs and improving performance throughout our operations globally.”

New Caledonia, home to three of the world's top-10 projects, is one of the highest cost producers.

Christel Bories, CEO of France's Eramet said recently that losses at its Societe Le Nickel operations were "not sustainable", while Vale NC, a branch of Brazil's Vale, said its Q1 cost of production stood at USD 11,232, well above the LME nickel price around USD 8,890. The French government, however, has supported both mines with state loans, aimed at protecting jobs.

Some mines, such as the Falcondo ferronickel plant in the Dominican Republic, exited the market when prices last dipped. That mine since returned under new ownership. Mines built during periods of high prices could be the first on the chopping block, while some operations could be wound down ahead of their expected closure dates, said analysts.

However, an impediment to closure was that many mines are run by diversified mining companies that derive most of their revenue from other minerals. Wood Mackenzie analyst Angela Durrant said that "In Australia we see the likes of Leinster and Long coming to end of mine life, in 2017 and 2018 respectively, so operations like these could close earlier.”

Source : Daily Times

Urbi et Orbi 11 juni 2017 19:08

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weet iemand wanneer het dividend van dit kwartaal wordt uitgekeerd? Kan het nergens vinden en heb het nog niet in het tegoed van de bank staan

voda 12 juni 2017 16:52

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Stainless steel not made for construction – Dr Salem Fiza of MMFX Steel

Construction Week Online quoted Dr Salem Faza president of MMFX Steel DMCC as saying that project teams must refrain from using stainless steel as a construction product. He said that the product is not intended for construction activities, adding that its high cost must also discourage its use as a building material.

Dr Fiza continued that "Stainless steel is not made for reinforcement and construction work, and instead meant to be used in highly sensitive areas, such as hospitals.”

MMFX's portfolio includes notable projects in the UAE, the capital's Al Maryah Island, where its product was used for sea wall protection.

Mr Faza told CWO that the firm's products were picked for Al Maryah Island since the project team required materials that would sustain contact with water and last longer than 75 years.

Source : Construction Week Online

voda 12 juni 2017 16:54

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quote:
Urbi et Orbi schreef op 11 juni 2017 19:08:
weet iemand wanneer het dividend van dit kwartaal wordt uitgekeerd? Kan het nergens vinden en heb het nog niet in het tegoed van de bank staan

www.aperam.com/news/115/568/Aperam-an...

Urbi et Orbi 12 juni 2017 22:08

0

Dank je voda

voda 13 juni 2017 16:25

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Outokumpu investment in bar finishing capabilities in the European market

Outokumpu has commissioned an investment in its bar finishing capabilities for Degerfors Long Products in Sweden. The investment comprises a new pit furnace, straightener, peeler as well as bar stock services. These investments have been installed during spring and will be in operation during June 2017.

Source : Strategic Research Institute

voda 13 juni 2017 16:26

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Commerce Ministry to meet stainless steel players on July 3

Financial Express reported that Indian Commerce Ministry has called a meeting of the steel industry on July 3, taking forward the probe into alleged dodging of anti-dumping duties on imports of certain stainless steel items from six countries and the European Union.

Jindal Stainless had filed an application for initiating a probe into alleged circumvention of anti-dumping duties on some steel products from China, Korea, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, the US and the EU. The Directorate General of Anti-dumping and Allied Duties will hold an “oral hearing on July 3” regarding the probe. It has asked the interested parties to submit the names of their representatives for the hearing.

The company has alleged circumvention of anti-dumping duties on ‘cold rolled flat product of stainless steel widths from 600 mm to 1250 mm’. The probe was initiated in February last year by the DGAD, the investigation arm of the ministry, but was stayed on April 27, 2016, by the Delhi High Court. The stay was vacated on March 8 this year. The ministry resumed the investigation thereafter. Earlier in a notification, the DGAD had stated that it has sufficient evidence of circumvention of anti-dumping duties leviable on cold-rolled flat products of stainless steel originating from these seven destinations.

The probe would determine the existence, degree and effect of the alleged circumvention and would also examine the need to extend the existing anti-dumping duty to the circumventing products. In December 2015, India had imposed an anti-dumping duty of up to 57.39% on import of the products from China, Korea, the US and the EU for five years to save the domestic industry from cheap shipments.

Source : Financial Express

voda 13 juni 2017 16:41

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Indonesia DMCI Mining to resume nickel ore shipments

Business world Online reported that mining arm of DMCI Holdings, Inc is planning to resume shipment of nickel ore this month. Mr Cesar F Simbulan DMCI Mining Corp President told reporters on June 3 the Consunji led firm will ship 200,000 metric tonnes of nickel ore from its stockpiles in Palawan and Zambales, bulk of which will go to China.

Mr Simbulan said that “Sa June, makakaapat na kami na (In June, we will have four) shipment: two in Zambales and two in Berong.”

DMCI Mining has approximately 300,000 tonnes of ore stockpile to dispose from its Zambales mine operations and another 128,000 tonnes in Palawan.

The miner has so far made three shipments of nickel ore in the first quarter, amounting to 158,000 tonnes from stockpile in Zambales, which translates to PHP 299 million in revenues.

The company is targeting to ship a reduced 500,000 tonne of nickel this year after abandoning the original target of 800,000 tonne, citing the early onset of the rainy season.

Source : Business world Online

voda 20 juni 2017 16:57

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Delong to build stainless steel factory at Morowali in Indonesia

The Jakarta Post reported that China’s Delong Holdings Limited plans to build a stainless steel factory in the Morowali Industrial Park in Central Sulawesi with an investment of around USD 950 million.

Industry Ministry’s director general for metals, machinery, transportation and electronic equipment, I Gusti Putu Suryawirawan told reporters in Jakarta that “The firm plans to develop a stainless steel factory with a production capacity of 3.5 million tonnes. The factory will help suffice demand in eastern Indonesia.”

Morowali has facilities like ports, electricity and land for such investments. The 2,000 hectare industrial park already has a nickel smelter that will supply raw materials for steel factories. If realized, Putu said, Morowali would be Indonesia’s second steel factory complex after Cilegon in Banten.

Source : Jakarta Post

voda 21 juni 2017 16:54

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Indonesian nickel smelters cease operations due to falling prices

Jakarta Globe reported that about a dozen newly constructed nickel smelters in Indonesia have stopped operations due to a plunge in nickel prices while others are operating at a loss.

Mr Jonatan Handojo deputy chairman of the Indonesian Smelter Association told Reuters that “Thirteen smelters with a combined capacity of 750,000 tonnes of nickel pig iron a year were forced to cease operation" because nickel prices reached as low as around USD 8,000 a tonne, declining to name the owners of the smelters.”

Source : Jakarta Globe

Bijlage:

voda 21 juni 2017 16:55

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Nickel production to grow for first time since 2013 - BMI report

Mining com reported that Global nickel production will come out of negative territory this year for the first time since 2013, driven by Indonesia's export ban moderation. BMI Research analysts said that along with Indonesia, Canada and Australia will lead growth output rates from until 2021, while major miners in the number one global producer, the Philippines, will benefit from the ousting of anti-mining minister Gina López from government.

It said that "Nickel hit a one-year low of USD 8,680 per tonne on the LME last week and is down more than 10% this year."

The research arm of Fitch Group said in the report that World nickel production is expected to grow by an average 3.4% each year until 2021. However, production growth rates during the next five years will remain lower than the 5.3% average rates achieved between 2012 and 2016, they said, citing higher nickel prices experienced before the commodities slump as the main reason.

While the Philippines will remain the world’s largest nickel producer in absolute numbers in the years to come, its global share of the market will gradually be reduced as ores are depleted and stringent environmental regulations choke new potential projects.

According to the analysts, the best performing country in terms of nickel output growth in the next four years will be Indonesia, thanks to the easing of the export ban, followed by Canada and Australia.

Mr Jonatan Handojo deputy chairman of the Indonesian Smelter Association told Reuters that however, the measure is likely to affect investment in local smelters, with more than a dozen newly constructed ones already halted amid falling metal prices and other facilities operating at a loss.

Source : Mining com

Bijlage:

voda 22 juni 2017 17:05

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Global nickel deficit narrows in April - INSG

Reuters reported that according to data from International Nickel Study Group, global deficit of refined nickel narrowed in April after a jump in refined metal output from Indonesia and China. Global refined nickel production grew by 2.5 percent in April from the month before to 169,900 tonnes, while demand moderated slightly to 173,100 tonnes. That left the market with a 3,200 tonne deficit, down from a revised 8,200 tonne deficit in March.

Refined nickel production in March was revised down sharply to 165,700 tonnes from 173,100 tonnes previously. Global nickel mine production recovered by 10.9 percent to 174,400 tonnes in April from a revised 157,300 tonnes in March, mostly due to rising production in Indonesia which almost doubled.

Indonesia's mines have ramped up this year after the key global supplier introduced new rules to allow some ore exports in a sweeping policy shift after banning ore exports in 2014. For the first four months of the year, Indonesian mined nickel supply nearly doubled to 96,200 tonnes, boosting primary production in both Indonesia and China. Indonesia's refined production nearly tripled to 64,000 tonnes, while China's output climbed 12.9 percent to 196,700 tonnes.

World mine production for the first four months stood at 637,600 tonnes, in line with the same period of last year. Mine production from the Philippines fell by more than a fifth over the period due to bad weather and a government crackdown on mining, while output from Botswana ceased after a major mine was put into liquidation late last year.

For the first four months of the year, world refined production grew 5.7 percent to 667,500 tonnes, and world refined usage jumped 6.7 percent to 689,900. This left the global market for refined nickel in a 22,400 tonne deficit, larger than the 15,300 deficit for the same months of 2016.

Source : Reuters

voda 23 juni 2017 15:33

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China's stainless steel glut a new headwind for nickel

Nikkei reported that international nickel prices have remained soft in recent months, with the price of the metal for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange down 20% to around USD 8,900 per tonne from its most recent high reached in late February.

Although the main drivers of the nickel market during the past year have been events in big supplier countries, China is emerging as a key demand-side factor driving down the market.

Source : Nikkei

Bijlage:

voda 30 juni 2017 16:35

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Weak demand from China stainless steel mills hits ferrochrome prices

Reuters reported that global prices of ferrochrome, used to make stainless steel, have tumbled to their lowest levels this year due to weaker demand from stainless steel mills in top producer China, according to traders in Asia and Europe. Low carbon ferrochrome was last quoted at USD 1.80 a lb, its lowest since Nov. and down 20% since late January. High carbon ferrochrome is at an eight-month low at 93 cents a lb and more than 30% lower since late January.

Mr Ravi Prakash marketing and business development head for ferro alloys and minerals division of Tata Steel Ltd said that "The Chinese ports have about 10 weeks of chrome ore stocks and that coupled with reduced ferrochrome demand has sent the prices of ore and alloys crashing.”

Mr Prakash added that stainless steel producers in China are cutting production as a supply overhang has pulled down prices.

China last year accounted for nearly 25 million tonnes or about 54% of global stainless steel production.

Citi analysts said in a recent note that "Two of the largest stainless producers in China – Taiyuan Stainless and Tsingshan Group say they have enough ferrochrome for their near-term production needs and are not issuing ferrochrome tender prices. Both the main Chinese stainless producers have announced plans to cut output in June following 'maintenance shutdowns' in May."

Traders said that some output cuts in South Africa, which produces nearly 60 percent of the world's chrome ore, are unlikely to cut supplies significantly, leaving ferrochrome prices under pressures.

A london based trader said that "Ferrochrome orders in the second quarter were much less than expected. With seasonal slowdown in Europe approaching, prices could take some more time to recover.” Tata Steel's Prakash said that global supply for ferrochrome this year is expected to reach about 12.4 million tonnes, compared with an estimated 11 million tonnes last year, adding global demand for the metal this year is seen at 12 million tonnes.

Source : Reuters

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voda 4 juli 2017 16:41

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Strike slows New Caledonia nickel production

Radio NZ reported that 70 of a union's 120 members have been on strike since Monday, forcing SLN to lower the output of its furnaces as it struggles to improve its output to survive.

The union has accused SLN of a lack of transparency in its performance plans and it has demanded the reinstatement of six workers being sacked for serious misbehaviour.

SLN has been run at a loss for the past of five years amid a global slump of the nickel price, with the deficit last year alone amounting to USD 160 million.

Last year, the French state provided a USD 230 million loan to supplement an advance by SLN's parent company Eramet of USD 370 million.

Source : Radio NZ

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voda 5 juli 2017 16:47

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Vale reviewing New Caledonia nickel operations

Reuters reported that Brazil's Vale is reassessing its loss making New Caledonian nickel operations as part of a wider review of low performing assets after new Chief Executive Fabio Schvartsman took charge last month. Spokesman Cory McPhee told Reuters that "Under the leadership of our new CEO, Vale is reviewing all assets and operations, with low-performing assets an area of particular focus. Vale New Caledonia is part of that review.”

The spokesman added that "The nickel price today is languishing at around $9,000 a tonne with no indication of recovery in the near-term. This has forced us to reassess all areas of the nickel business, including our operations in New Caledonia, which continue to lose money at these prices."

Schvartsman has set up working groups to assess each of the business units at Vale, the world's biggest iron ore miner, and a report is expected within two months, according to analysts.

Global nickel miners are coming under renewed pressure to cut costs or close capacity as a flood of cheap ore enters the market, and Vale has already said it plans to suspend two of its older high-cost Canadian mines this year.

Vale has said that it is aiming to cut cash costs to USD 10,500 to USD 11,000 a tonne at its New Caledonia operations in the second half, as it ramps up production and prices of byproduct cobalt soar.

Source : Reuters

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