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Outokumpu vs. Aperam (greetings from Finland -- please write in English)

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Tommi from Helsinki 24 november 2014 01:57

Hello

I am an investor from Finland and I have studied pretty carefully European steinless steel companies, especially the market leader Outokumpu (which is of course from Finland).

I am writing in this forum because I would like to have some discussions with investors with good understanding in Aperam.

The topic that I have in my mind right now the the relative share performance of the two companies. Outokumpu lost almost 50 % of its price (late summer -- early November) while Aperam declined only about 10 %. As far I can understand, there has been no news to justify or explain this move. Do you have any suggestions?

My second topic concerns the anti-dumping (and anti-subsidy) case against China and Taiwan. Have you heard anything on this?

BR,
Tommi

Tommi from Helsinki 24 november 2014 10:06

Two more questions.
1. What is the story behind Aperam's massive hot rolling capacity in Europe?
2. Why is Aperam listed in Amsterdam (and not e.g. Paris)?

BR,
Tommi

Geerten B 24 november 2014 15:05

Ha Tommi,

I know nothing of Outokumpu.
But Aperam has the following positive developments:

1 Net debt has decreased considerably in recent years.
www.aperam.com/uploads/pdf/Q3_1014/Ap... (page 14)

2. nickel nikkel blijft voorlopig waarschijnlijk stijgen.

Japan's CR stainless steel mills hold out at USD 2,500 FOB

In the Asian region, Korean and Taiwanese mills seem to be proceeding with negotiations on cold rolled austenitic stainless steel sheets at USD 2,500 CFR and at the time of a contract, such case seems to be increasing that they reduce their prices slightly to the level of USD 2,400 CFR.

Against the Japanese mills, a pressure to cut prices is strong but if the LME nickel price maintains the current level (around USD 6.80 per pound), they see to be able to maintain the level of USD 2,500 FOB by selecting orders.

On the market prices of stainless sheets in the Asian region, the progress of an antidumping investigation against Chinese and Taiwanese stainless sheets begins to have an impact. Offer prices of the major stainless sheet mills of China like Baoshan Iron & Steel and Taiyuan Iron & Steel in the Southeast Asian region are said to be appearing.

There is a possibility that on the alert for an affirmative determination on that case, they are shifting to Asia. Taiwan's export quantity of CR stainless sheets to Japan begins to show a trend to increase largely. After all, its purpose is seen to increase its export in the Asian region because they have to limit their export to Europe.

European mills that are likely to shut out China and Taiwan seem to have demonstrated a willingness to increase their export quantity to Southeast Asia. A Japanese source related to stainless steel is observing that they are to clear inventory in the Asian region before the Christmas holidays. Their price of products to SUS304 for Asia is USD 2,500 CFR, which is reported to be cheaper than prices in Europe by around USD 200.

Under the situation, the export environment of stainless sheets is worsening in Asia. It is of a problem that the situation for the Japanese mills to have to move export negotiations into full gear is coming close.

In the past, they have been unnecessary to export forcedly CR austenitic stainless sheets owing to the brisk demand for the domestic market. However, the domestic demand is decreasing. Sooner or later, an environment is likely to change, and they will have to cover a decreased portion for the domestic market by export. They are to embark on export when the export market is worst.

They said that the price level of USD 2,500 FOB is still profitable amid the depreciated yen.

Source - The TEX Report

check this for more
www.aperam.com/about-2/investors-shar...

Tommi from Helsinki 25 november 2014 11:03

Thanks. Aperam has the best balance sheet (mostly because it has not been investing or paying dividends). But there does not seem to be any obvious connection between the balance sheets and the recent share price movements because there is nothing in here. Any rumours about what Aperam is going to do with its better balance sheet? Still planning to buy Terni?

DeZwarteRidder 23 juli 2015 08:57

OUTOKUMPU OYJ
INTERIM REPORT
July 23, 2015 at 9.00 am EET

Underlying EBIT of EUR -25 million. Improvement in Coil EMEA not enough to cover losses in Coil Americas

Highlights in the second quarter 2015

Outokumpu’s underlying EBIT was EUR -25 million compared to EUR 2 million in the first quarter of 2015. While European restructuring progressed and performance in Coil EMEA improved, a decline in financial performance was driven by low delivery volumes and weak performance in Coil Americas. Coil Americas’ underlying EBIT loss increased to EUR 50 million. Operating cash flow was EUR -41 million.

Stainless steel deliveries were 616,000 tonnes1 (I 2015: 620,000 tonnes).
Underlying EBITDA2 was EUR 57 million (I 2015: EUR 77 million) and underlying EBIT2 was EUR -25 million (I 2015: EUR 2 million). The decline was driven by weak performance in Coil Americas.
EBIT was EUR -26 million (I 2015: EUR -10 million). The net effect of raw material-related inventory and metal derivative gains/losses was EUR -1 million (I 2015: EUR 7 million). There were no non-recurring items in the second quarter (I 2015 EUR -19 million).
Operating cash flow was EUR -41 million (I 2015: EUR -62 million).
Net debt increased to EUR 2,116 million (March 31, 2015: EUR 2,034 million) and gearing was 96.4% (March 31, 2015: 91.5%).

[verwijderd] 3 augustus 2017 21:23

Outokumpu heeft fabriek verkocht in Florida voor apprix. $ 25 mio.
Schuld afbouw van 1.239 naar 1.100 komt in zicht natuurlijk.
Dus nog 110 mio te gaan.

Vind hoge debt wel een issue, maar soms moet je risico nemen.

ALs Aperam de 50 regio tikt dan moet Outokumpu het zeker ook halen. Niet nu natuurlijk en ook niet in 2018 maar de intentie van management om goede prestaties neer te zetten, geeft vertrouwen voor de toekomst.

[verwijderd] 16 augustus 2017 16:55

MOGEN NIET KLAGEN, EEN LEUKE STIJGING VAN 3 %.
AANDEEL NU 7,88.
HOPELIJK KOMT 8 EURO IN ZICHT ALS BELEGGERS HET 3E KWARTAAL VERDISCONTEERD HEBBEN.

NET ALS APERAM ZAL OUTOKUMPU 3E KWARTAAL WAT LAGER AAN RESULTATEN ZIEN MAAR DIT MAG DE PRET NIET BEDERVEN.

ALS WIJ DOORSTOTEN NAAR 10 EURO IN 2018 DAN HOOR JE MIJ NIET KLAGEN.
EERST SCHULD AFBOUWEN ONDER DE 1, DAN GAAN WIJ HETZELFDE MEEMAKEN ALS APERAM.

OUTOKUMPU HAALT 40% UIT ZIJN BUSINESS VAN EUROPA VANDAAN EN UIT USA.
ZIJN "HELAAS" GROTER DAN APERAM.
BEIDEN CONTINENTEN GAAT HET GOED MET DE ECONOMIE. AMERIKA IS ALLEEN DE BOEL AAN HET SABOTEREN DOOR ONZE ONERVAREN TRUMP.
IS MEER BEZIG MET SOCIALE VRAAGSTUKKEN DAN DE ECONOMIE TE VERBETEREN.

WIJ GAAN HET MEEMAKEN.

SUC6

[verwijderd] 18 augustus 2017 18:56

Outokumpu Oyj
Stock exchange release
August 18, 2017 at 6.30 pm EET

Outokumpu Oyj (business identity code: 0215254-2) has on August 18, 2017 received a notification based on Chapter 9, Section 5 of the Finnish Securities Market Act. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s total holding in the shares and voting rights of Outokumpu Oyj has risen above 5% threshold and was 5.06% on August 18, 2017.

[verwijderd] 18 augustus 2017 18:58

Gewoon bijsprokkelen.
JP zorgt er wel voor dat er genoeg steun en bodem gevormd wordt.

[verwijderd] 18 augustus 2017 19:30

quote:
Hermando schreef op 16 augustus 2017 16:55:
MOGEN NIET KLAGEN, EEN LEUKE STIJGING VAN 3 %.
AANDEEL NU 7,88.
HOPELIJK KOMT 8 EURO IN ZICHT ALS BELEGGERS HET 3E KWARTAAL VERDISCONTEERD HEBBEN.

NET ALS APERAM ZAL OUTOKUMPU 3E KWARTAAL WAT LAGER AAN RESULTATEN ZIEN MAAR DIT MAG DE PRET NIET BEDERVEN.

ALS WIJ DOORSTOTEN NAAR 10 EURO IN 2018 DAN HOOR JE MIJ NIET KLAGEN.
EERST SCHULD AFBOUWEN ONDER DE 1, DAN GAAN WIJ HETZELFDE MEEMAKEN ALS APERAM.

OUTOKUMPU HAALT 40% UIT ZIJN BUSINESS VAN EUROPA VANDAAN EN UIT USA.
ZIJN "HELAAS" GROTER DAN APERAM.
BEIDEN CONTINENTEN GAAT HET GOED MET DE ECONOMIE. AMERIKA IS ALLEEN DE BOEL AAN HET SABOTEREN DOOR ONZE ONERVAREN TRUMP.
IS MEER BEZIG MET SOCIALE VRAAGSTUKKEN DAN DE ECONOMIE TE VERBETEREN.

WIJ GAAN HET MEEMAKEN.

SUC6

Ook al schrijf je met hoofdletters, Tommi is de Nederlandse taal niet machtig.

[verwijderd] 20 augustus 2017 21:42

Soms vergeet je de caps lock on.
Maar mag de pret niet drukken.

IK GENIET VAN FIJN WEEKEND...

oeps vergeet ik het weer...

Maandag..op naar 8,50...en we krijgen 2e Aperam koersverloop...

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