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Flatlander 5 februari 2021 16:24

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JotieP

Your understanding of the conversion being at the discretion of the subscriber is the same as my understanding. However, I believe the the term was chosen such that the share price will look much more attractive in early 2024. If you are so negative on BCARTs prospects over the next few years why do you invest in BCART?

While I do fault BCART for the slow pace in pursuing registrations and the sometimes flubbed PR statements I do believe the premise that they are selling a differentiated product into a worldwide MDx market that is growing at 20% annually. The time and expense to gain marketing approvals and build out the distribution network have been considerable. However, I have to believe that at some point well before 2024 these investments become a tailwind. I often refer to my investment in GHDX as an example. The share price did nothing for two years while they continued to rack up positive publications but then tripled in a few weeks after the results of the Tailorx trial on OncotypeDX Breast were published in the NEJM and were presented at ASCO. GHDX was profitable from that point on.
BCART could well be in the same type of situation. In the meantime BCART has to do the obvious, build out the menu offerings and gain full diagnostic and insurance reimbursement approvals. As I pointed out some time ago, the cost of Idylla assays were running at half the US reimbursement rates for KRAS, NRAS, MSI. Diagnostic use approval would unlock a large lucrative market. I anticipate that they will price both consoles and cartridges at attractive rates for the early adopters. Unfortunately, NGS costs are coming down and they are getting better at speeding up the result TAT, Therefore, the differentiation advantage is dissipating (hence my always harping on this subject).

BCART is promising the long awaited sales growth inflection point in 2021. Given the lingering Covid disruption I'd not be surprised if this inflection point slides into 2022. But I believe the share price will reflect improved prospects well before 2024.

FL

JotieP 5 februari 2021 17:53

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@FL
there is a difference between being negative about BCART in a way that i would no longer invest in it, and expecting the share price will be trippled in 3 years.
It's a combination of both. I do believe in Biocartis on the long term, but i don't believe in the share price being attractive enough for the subscribers of the convertible to convert the loan. The due date of the convertible will be there fast enough.

BCART is my highest risk/reward stock. My pessimism and hope counter eachother.
Also take into account that lack of knowledge is a trigger for fear/pessimism. Most of my stocks are value-stocks and are easily calculatable. i know the PE, ROCE, etc etc of all my stocks.
BCART is more difficult to know where the company is heading. it's more like a jump in the dark...
You do a great job in providing a lot of information here, which I appreciate a lot. It might however be very clear to you, due to your knowledge on BCART and it's market, what should happen etc ... but for me, with less knowledge ... i get stuck with 'we'll get the SARS-COV2 test approved in the coming weeks' from a long time ago, the returned idylla in Q4 2020 report which was apparently installed but not sold, ... . The metrics that i can calculate are showing me the growth rate is too slow now.

So conclusion, the combination of lack of knowledge and the highest risk/reward makes me pessimistic / cautious.
I'm however not afraid to sell my stocks with losses. If i would think that it would be the way forward, i would push the button. So far i didn't do it.

PS: i'm not that concerned about the share price itself. It's more about the growth rate, the lobby skills of BCART, and (potential) competitors. A low share price can even be good... If BCART could refinance itself based on impressive growth rates, and the convertibles are not converted due to a low share price ... that would be great. No dillusion of shares and new liquidity due to good growth rates...
but that's dreaming for now. Looking forward to the forecast 2021!
kind regards and nice weekend,
JotieP

Flatlander 6 februari 2021 16:33

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JotieP

I estimate that the size of the RUO market in the U.S. is only about 5% of the overall diagnostic market. I keep looking for a reference confirming the sized difference but have not found something to back up my estimate. I find it hard to understand how the present growth metrics get extrapolated out 3 years without consideration of the unlocking of what could be 95% of the market. Much of what happens in the US is based on insurance reimbursement rates. The ability to provide an assay at half the cost of a competitor and half the reimbursement rate has the potential to unlock tremendous growth. I believe this is much more pronounced in the US than the EU since the reimbursement rates are much higher, BCART does not break out the numbers geographically to allow us to assess the difference in adoption rates. 2021 is most likely going to be a very lumpy sales year as the shift from COVID assays to Oncology begins to occur.

BCART is one of my larger speculations but the position sizing is about 3% of my overall portfolio. I spend more time on it than other investments since I like the MDx field. We must start to see success in registering and commercializing Idylla outside the US.

Have a good weekend.

FL

Flatlander 6 februari 2021 19:51

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I was in a hurry. The last sentence should read EU.

FL

CGCDLR 7 februari 2021 15:40

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Thanks,FL JotieP,voor jullie bijdragen en vooruitzichten over hoe we van uit de huidige "stilstand" een groeipad hopen te bereiken.De aandeelhouders van het eerste uur hopen samen met jullie ook op een positieve uitkomst.Ok,erg positief kom ik momenteel niet over, maar dit heeft het management zich over zichzelf uitgeroepen,volgens mij en dit dan door telkens de kleine aandeelhouders voor voldongen feiten te plaatsen bij de zoveelste KO.De volgende vooruitzichten zullen volgens mij bepalend zijn of we als aandeelhouders blijven zitten of we er de stekker eruit trekken.Is dit hard? Ja!Maar sedert 2015 is het moeilijk om een "serieuze"belegging te vinden die ze nog meer heeft ontgoocheld dan Blocartis.Rudi Marien had het bij het rechte eind, jaren terug al! Je mag je niet voorstellen hoeveel andere beleggingen in die periode

CGCDLR 7 februari 2021 15:41

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Hebben gerendeerd,

RUF RTR 8 februari 2021 13:15

3

De recentste bedrijfspresentatie van januari eens doorgenomen, zeer interessante lectuur voor iedere aandeelhouder.
Geeft een gedetailleerd beeld waar ze willen in investeren in de komende jaren.

tomtesteron 10 februari 2021 09:07

1

quote:
RUF RTR schreef op 8 februari 2021 13:15:
De recentste bedrijfspresentatie van januari eens doorgenomen, zeer interessante lectuur voor iedere aandeelhouder.
Geeft een gedetailleerd beeld waar ze willen in investeren in de komende jaren.

Dag RUF RTR,

inderdaad een zeer duidelijke presentatie,
vraagje van mijn kant: delen van deze presentatie werden ook tijdens de laatste conf call besproken.
Op slide / pagina 27 staat een overzicht van de potentiële adressable market in oncologie. Weet jij nog welke tijdshorizon ze plakken op short term, mid-term en long term ? Vb, short term is dat 1-2 jaar, mid term 5 jaar en long term 10 jaar ?

thanks

RUF RTR 10 februari 2021 09:46

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quote:
tomtesteron schreef op 10 februari 2021 09:07:
[...]

Dag RUF RTR,

inderdaad een zeer duidelijke presentatie,
vraagje van mijn kant: delen van deze presentatie werden ook tijdens de laatste conf call besproken.
Op slide / pagina 27 staat een overzicht van de potentiële adressable market in oncologie. Weet jij nog welke tijdshorizon ze plakken op short term, mid-term en long term ? Vb, short term is dat 1-2 jaar, mid term 5 jaar en long term 10 jaar ?

thanks

Dag tomtesteron,

Is een belangrijke opmerking. Tijdshorizon in biotech en farma is natuurlijk zeer relatief.
Op 5 jaar kan jouw technologie voorbijgestreefd zijn, daarenboven hangt ook zeer veel af van goedkeuring door EMA en FDA.
Denk dat jouw inschatting van short term, mid term en long term vrij realistisch is.
Iedereen hoopt natuurlijk altijd op een snellere goedkeuring, ontwikkeling en marktintroductie maar het blijft een moeilijke evenwichtsoefening. Kijk bvb ook nu maar naar de vaccins tegen Covid-19, deze werden ontwikkeld in een recordtempo maar er is weinig onderzoek gedaan naar mogelijke bijwerkingen.
Deze presentatie geeft me vertrouwen naar de nabije toekomst toe.

Thole 11 februari 2021 15:23

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Beste forum, ik verdiep me momenteel in Biocartis. Hierbij merk ik dat het aantal geïnstalleerde Idylla systemen jaar na jaar stijgt, de groei is redelijk lineair over de laatste jaren. Dit terwijl men zou kunnen verwachten dat dit toch "exponentieel" zou zijn (misschien te weinig kennis nog over dit soort platformen). Is hiervoor een verklaring en komt die extra groei nog jullie inziens?

Tweede vraag, hoeveel is de geïnstalleerde productiecapaciteit van cartridges voor Idylla platform?

Alvast bedankt voor de input!

Flatlander 11 februari 2021 23:37

1

Thole,

My belief is that two factors weigh on the current rate of uptake:

1) Idylla is registered in the EU for diagnostic use for only a handful of assays. Outside of the EU (in the US, China, Japan, etc.) Idylla assays can only be used for research purposes (a much smaller market). They have completed the testing program for validation and will be filing for diagnostic use registration for several critical assays later the year. Listen on the 25th for more information on the exact schedule.

2) The number of assays has been limited. For example, with the release of the gene fusion assay in the next few weeks they will finally be reaching the point where the majority of actionable lung cancer targets (i.e, cancers with genetic targets for which approved drugs exist) will finally exist. Listen for updates on the CDx partnerships. Filing for approval of Idylla registration for use as a CDx for say AZN's Tagrisso or BMS Optivo will be critical in BCART being able to marshal the large Pharma sales forces to help sell Idylla products. These developments should be apparent in the EU 1st and then expand to the US, China etc. as the IVD registrations are approved.

Finally, the 2nd manufacturing line that is up and running allows for production of just over a million cartridges a year. The 3rd line is likely to be located in China.

Management is saying that this is the year when the sales growth inflection rate becomes apparent. I personally have been waiting for this inflection point for two years. So it would be very welcome. It is hard to understand how cheaper, faster, less hands on effort, less test failures etc, does not translate into a successful product.

Welcome to the board.

FL

€URO-Trader 12 februari 2021 21:33

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Einde dag ingestapt, heb zo het vermoeden dat dit bedrijf eerdaahs met onverwacht goed nieuws komt.

Flatlander 13 februari 2021 00:37

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€ URO-Trader

Welcome aboard. However, I'm not sure it will be a great short term trade. We can expect to hear that Gene Fusion is being released in the next few weeks. I hope ImmunExpress presents the results of the their Covid Triage study and hopefully a 510K approval in the next month or so.

The cartridge volume and sales growth inflection is likely a 2nd half story. The majority of the Idylla products are still oncology based and the resumption of procedures colonoscopies, cytology etc. will not likely reach normal limits until most residents of a country have been vaccinated or until the patient feels the risk of virus infection is less than the risk of delaying the exam.

I've come to grips with the fact that MDx is very early in the adoption curve. Idylla seeks to disrupt the standard methods of MDx (Sanger sequencing, pyrosequencing, immunohistochemistry, NGS, etc.) by providing accurate results on-demand, faster, cheaper, without interpretation of genetic counselors, etc. But I don't believe that this type of disruption can occur before the procedures is widely approved for diagnostic use and not just RUO. The good news is that the numerous journal articles I've read indicate that Idylla is accurate and sensitive and should be approved. The bad news is we are two years and counting waiting for BCART to make their registration case in the US, China and Japan. Some of this delay is clearly the fault of the regulating agencies (i.e., FDA) in that they have failed to modernize the IVD approval process. But I think BCART and their partners may also have some responsibility for the delays.

I've often pointed to Cepheid as a good analogy for BCART. Their cartridge based MDx testing for infectious disease has grown at roughly 20% for the past 15 years. Assuming oncology MDx makes the same move to the POC market, I believe BCART is capable of similar growth.
FL

Thole 13 februari 2021 08:45

1

Hello Flatlander,

Thanks a lot for your interesting feedback. Based on the first analysis I did, I have bought my first batch of Biocartis shares. Still have to do further analysis to see what weight in my portfolio can be given to this company. Must say that the cooperations, multiple different activities/possibilities look interesting.

Kind regards,

Thole

Flatlander 13 februari 2021 18:14

1

Thole

My vantage point is a bit skewed. All assets in the U.S have run hard and valuations and potential future returns are not very enticing. I've waded into the EU and EM looking for better valuations and growth prospects. Biocartis is at a crossroads, They have launched a very differentiated MDx product into world markets that are growing at 20% a year but it remains to be seen whether they have the technical horses to secure the registrations to fully unlock these markets.

I've done a ton of homework reviewing pathology journals to determine that Idylla is differentiated enough to gain traction against huge competitors. I'm encouraged that several articles have flow charted how idylla can be used synergistically with NGS in the existing lab workflow. I believe that the future prospects have only improved as a result of COVID. Being able to provide complex MDx results in a contactless manner without much hands on technician effort is an advantage in this type of environment. BCART can help their case by demonstrating that the new flex cartridge will accelerate the introduction of new assay content. I also, think BCART will double in the next 18 months if they deliver on their promise to file and succeed in achieving IVD registrations in the US, Japan and China.

Long story short. I can see a 2 down 10 up potential risk/reward ratio in the next 5 years. Companies in the US have $2-5B valuations without having the potential disruptive advantages that BCART has, But management needs to start demonstrating that they can deliver.on the promise.

FL

RUF RTR 14 februari 2021 09:27

1

Biotech en farma blijft een boeiende sector, iedereen kan wel een idee hebben wat er zal gebeuren maar niemand weet het zeker. Kijk maar naar Galapagos, op twee jaar tijd drie grote tegenslagen en de beurswaarde is gesmolten als sneeuw voor de zon. Laat ons hopen dat er bij Biocartis eindelijk eens een positieve omslag plaatsvindt. Binnen een paar weken weten we al veel meer.

€URO-Trader 14 februari 2021 16:26

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In de regel, bij geen nieuws koers gematigd lager. Zodra er nieuws komt moet je ze in bezit hebben, anders is men te laat. Tijdspanne is veelal een investering in kennis, welke zich uiteindelijk vertaald is een koersstijging. De laatste cijfers vond ik positief en een onverwachte wending kan een behoorlijke boost geven. Vandaar de investering. Mocht de koers omlaag gaan middel ik is mijn besluit.

Flatlander 15 februari 2021 05:58

2

As a rule, BCART has shown not to support any sustained share price increase as a result of any of the following:

Technical journal article presenting positive findings;
Launch of a new assay RUO;
Announcement of a new product development partnership.

The market seems to be in "show me mode", I suspect that announcement of an IVD registration in any geography would be huge positives, as would a CDx launch with one of the major pharma partners. Otherwise, the market is looking for increases in console placements and cartridge sales.

Long story short, the news needs to show a pathway to expedited profitability to result in significant lasting gains.

FL

ElTorro 15 februari 2021 10:42

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FL, thx for your extensive feedback (as always).

BCART needs to start growing up and management needs to get his act together this year, or I (and I think I'm not the only one) will start to lose my patience.. Implementing the things you mentioned above would be a good start to reassure that confidence.

[verwijderd] 15 februari 2021 14:13

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In my opinion Biocartis is a company that evolves to slow and that doesn't dare to think and dream big. Their products and services seem to be good if you look at the latest financial reports that are available, but they need to dream bigger. In the world that they live in you've got to be innovative, smart and fast.

I hope the financial results that will come out on February 25 will boost the stock price, because looking at the potential (which I strongly believe in) I can't understand why they didn't recover from COVID-19 downgrade.

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