Why Royal Dutch Shell Has the Most Potential of Any Big Oil Stock
Updated August 9, 2021 / Original August 6, 2021
Of all the Big Oil stocks, Royal Dutch Shell is the one best positioned to deliver a gusher.
The British-Dutch colossus is the most profitable of the major international energy companies, yet it trades at a sharp discount to Exxon Mobil (ticker: XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Shell also offers investors a safe dividend yield of nearly 5%.
“Shell’s shares are materially undervalued based on the company’s industry-leading cash flows and strong franchises in liquefied natural gas, retail, and deep-water drilling,” says Dan Farb, a principal at Mill Pond Capital, a Boston investment firm that holds shares.
Investors can play Shell through two U.S.-listed shares that are economically equivalent and trade under the tickers RDS.A and RDS.B.
The American depositary shares for the U.K. shares (RDS.B), now around $40, are the better bet. They trade $1 below the ADS for the Dutch shares (RDS.A) and don’t subject U.S. investors to withholding taxes on dividends, as the Dutch shares do. The RDS.B stock yields 4.8%.
everal winning scenarios could bubble up for the shares. Investors may come to recognize just how cheap they are. Shell trades for eight times projected 2021 earnings of $4.95 a share, compared with a price/earnings ratio of 14 for Exxon and 16 for Chevron. Shell also has an underappreciated mix of assets, including the largest liquefied natural gas business and the industry’s biggest retail franchise. Shell has 46,000 service stations—more locations than McDonald’s (MCD) or Starbucks (SBUX).
The retail business alone could be worth $40 billion, or 10 times 2020 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda. That is in line with the valuation of Alimentation Couche-Tard (ANCUF), a Quebec-based operator of more than 14,200 convenience stores, most offering fuel services, largely in the U.S. and Canada. Shell has a market value of $160 billion.
Another possibility is a sharply higher dividend. The company has increased its quarterly dividend 50%, to 48 cents a U.S.-listed share, from its 2020 low. Yet the dividend was 94 cents before the pandemic. Shell is aiming for 4% annual growth in the dividend from current levels, but it could do much more.
With similar free cash flow to Exxon, Shell is paying out $7.5 billion in annual dividends, versus $15 billion for its U.S. rival. At something close to an Exxon-like payout, Shell would yield 7% to 8%. Unlike Shell, both Exxon and Chevron maintained their dividends during the pandemic. Exxon yields 6.1% and Chevron, 5.3%.
“If management keeps capital expenditures restrained and restores Shell’s dividend payout ratio closer to that of its North American peers, shares could rally by over 50%,” Mill Pond’s Farb contends.
Looking to 2022, Royal Dutch Shell is expected to earn over $5 a share and generate $23 billion of free cash flow, slightly above Exxon’s.
Citing in part Shell’s 15% free-cash-flow yield, MKM Partners analyst John Gerdes recently lifted his price target on the RDS.B ADS by $8, to $76 a share. He sees $142 billion in total free cash flow from 2021 to 2026, nearly equal to the company’s market value, assuming Brent crude oil of $65 a barrel and natural gas at $2.90 for every thousand cubic feet. Brent crude is now $70, and gas is around $4 per thousand cubic feet.
Christyan Malek, a J.P. Morgan analyst, recently wrote that there was 50% potential upside in Shell, with the stock “well underpinned” by an average free-cash flow yield above 15% in 2021 and 2022, assuming crude at $70 a barrel. He has an Overweight rating on the stock.
Christyan Malek, a J.P. Morgan analyst, recently wrote that there was 50% potential upside in Shell, with the stock “well underpinned” by an average free-cash flow yield above 15% in 2021 and 2022, assuming crude at $70 a barrel. He has an Overweight rating on the stock.
Shell has focused on lower carbon-emitting natural gas, with gas projected to rise to 55% of its output from 45% by 2030. Just $2 billion to $3 billion of its roughly $20 billion of annual capital spending is earmarked for renewables—wind and solar power—and other clean-energy initiatives.
In May, a Dutch court ordered the company to reduce its global carbon emissions by 45% by 2030. The move was hailed by climate activists, but Shell plans to appeal—a process that could take two to three years.
Royal Dutch Shell management declined to talk to Barron’s. In a June post, CEO Ben van Beurden said: “For a long time to come we expect to continue providing energy in the form of oil and gas products both to meet customer demand, and to maintain a financially strong company.”
Given strong anti-fossil fuel sentiment in Europe, Shell carries more risk than its U.S. peers. But that risk is more than offset by a low valuation, a solid yield, the prospect of higher dividends, and maybe a corporate breakup.