Toch weten te achterhalen ;).
De financial data heb ik niet hierin geplakt, daar blijft niets van over.
Wie het wil hebben moet het maar aangeven. Ik kan het dan mail (PDF).
Harvest time is near-SNS-31 August 2006
• Tuesday, Crucell released its 2006Q2 figures which were below our expectations. Revenues
came in at EUR 18.9 million, while net loss amounted to EUR 25.7 million or EUR -0.44 per
share. The figures are influenced by integration costs of Berna Biotech and the increase in
R&D due to the higher-than-expected share of R&D programs taken over from former Berna.
The company maintained its revenue outlook for this year to be EUR 130-150 million. The
pentavalent vaccine Quinvaxem is vital in reaching this goal.
• Near term trigger for the share price remains to be the announcement of the prequalification
report from the WHO on Quinvaxem. We expect this to happen any day now. The question is
not if Crucell will get a positive prequalification, but when this will happen. Only if the report
from the WHO will not be issued before October this will have a negative impact on the
revenues for this year. Currently, Crucell is producing the vaccine in large quantities at their
plant in Korea and already produced 7 million doses. We expect Quinvaxem to have a
contribution to sales in 2006 of EUR 40-45 million. For next year we expect the company to
sell 30-35 million doses, which accounts for EUR 100-110 million in revenues.
• In the coming weeks we can also expect news flow regarding Crucell’s pipeline in vaccines.
Vaccines against ebola virus, malaria, tuberculosis and a second trial in pandemic influenza
will enter into Phase I. Having multiple programs entering into the clinic, Crucell’s pipeline is
coming on stream. We still expect Crucell vaccine against Ebola virus to be its first vaccine
on the market that is produced on PER.C6. Due to the limited clinical trials, that will be even
accelerated by the so called two animal rule, we think this vaccine to be on the market in
2008.
• Crucell has decided to start clinical trials for a vaccine against malaria without
GlaxoSmithKline. GSK was previously mentioned as being a possible partner for Crucell. We
think that Crucell has the means and know how to develop this vaccine on their own and
possibly look for a marketing partner at a later stage. We estimate the market for the malaria
vaccine to be at least USD 500 million a year.
• In the coming months we expect several new sizable licenses to be issued on Crucell’s
STAR technology. We think that STAR is potentially much more valuable for the company
than its proprietary technology platform PER.C6 due to the size of the protein market and the
possibility of STAR to considerably boost protein production in both CHO cell lines and in the
PER.C6 cell line. Companies like Genentech and Medarex are currently evaluating the
technology.
• In all, we think that there will be ample triggers in the coming period that will drive the
share price upwards. At this time we are not changing our EPS estimates for this year.
We maintain our BUY recommendation on Crucell and our price target of EUR 30.