Tjohn schreef op 14 april 2011 13:03:
Current foreclosure rate consistent with a stock value of $8 in 2013
The current foreclosure ratio is indicating a reduction of 25% in the claims. This is consistend with model II of the four senario's indicating a stock value of $8 in 2013 You can donload the model from:
www.visionfactory.nl/VisionFactory/GQ...Using the Claim model I did compute four senario's from pestimistic to optimistic.
Petimistic I
1-Net settled claims down only 12% , not keeping up with the downturn in default rate of 24%
Result is a stock value at the end of 2013 -$4,93
Normal II
2-Net settled claims down proportional with the down turn of the default rate of 24%
Result is a stock value at the end of 2013 $8,25
Optimistic III
4-a Compensation for the complaint against American Home Mortgage $111 million in damages and Net settled claims down only 12%
Result = a stock value at the end of 2013 $7,13
Optimistic IV
4-3-a Compensation for the complaint against American Home Mortgage $111 million in damages and Net settled claims down proportional with the down turn in the default rate –24%
Result = a stock value at the end of 2013 $16.57