Gold Above 10-Week Low on Ukraine as Buying in China Improves
By Glenys Sim Apr 25, 2014 8:37 AM GMT+0200
Gold held above a 10-week low as rising tension in Ukraine stoked haven demand and buying increased in China, the world’s largest consumer. Palladium headed for a weekly advance.
Bullion for immediate delivery traded at $1,291.33 an ounce at 2:36 p.m. in Singapore from $1,293.36 yesterday, little changed this week, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. Bullion rebounded 0.7 percent yesterday after dropping to $1,268.64, the lowest level since Feb. 10.
Gold has rallied 7.5 percent this year, rebounding from the worst annual drop in more than three decades, partly as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine fueled demand. In China, volumes for the benchmark spot gold contract in Shanghai climbed to a two-month high yesterday.
“Gold is finding support from the Ukraine and Russia situation,” said Zhu Siquan, an analyst at GF Futures Co., a unit of the Guangzhou, China-based company that bought Natixis Commodity Markets Ltd. “Chinese buyers appear to be coming back to the market after the price fall.”
Heel verstandig, B-B...!
En mijn advies is: Plaats alleen berichten waarin het woord goud of gold minstens 1x voorkomt.
U.K. Gold Demand Seen Rising as Regulator Considers Pension List
By Morgane Lapeyre Apr 25, 2014 7:14 AM GMT+0200
U.K. gold demand will get a boost from investors saving up for retirement with the U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority considering adding bullion to its list of “standard assets,” brokerage GoldCore Ltd. said.
The Financial Services Authority, replaced last year by the FCA to oversee market regulation, published a consultation paper with the list in 2012, asking whether other types of investment should be added. Cash, bonds and exchange-traded commodities were included and physical gold was not. The FCA’s decision if other assets can be added is expected by the end of June, Dublin-based Goldcore said in a report today.
“It should lead to an increased demand for gold and to gold being on the radar of more mainstream investors,” Mark O’Byrne, a director at GoldCore, which manages more than $200 million in bullion, said in a phone interview yesterday. “If that happened, it would contribute to gold being seen almost as a mainstream asset.”
Investment-grade gold is permitted in self-invested personal pensions since 2006 and featuring on the regulator’s roll would help raise awareness that pension funds can invest in physical bullion, according to GoldCore.
Gold remains a “niche” investment because only “very few people are aware that you can actually put physical gold into a pension fund,” O’Byrne said. Current allocations to bullion are “very low,” with 5.2 percent of GoldCore’s clients having gold in their pension funds, he said.
Standard investments were defined by the FSA as any asset “capable of being accurately and fairly valued on an ongoing basis, readily realized whenever required, up to a maximum of 30 days, and for an amount that can be reconciled with the previous valuation.” Non-standard investments include all other assets, according to the regulator.
“In 1980, 20 percent of investment funds were allocated to gold and today the figure is believed to be less than 2 or 3 percent,” O’Byrne said. “That shows that there is room for a significant rise in the demand for gold in pension funds and an increase in the overall allocations to gold within pension portfolios.”
Election cash restrictions to dent India's gold imports
Tue Apr 22, 2014 6:53am EDT
In previous elections, political workers suspected of trying to bribe voters were caught with suitcases packed with cash and stowed in car trunks, ambulances and even hearses.
The ongoing elections in India started on April 7 and will continue till May 12. Results will be announced on May 16.
"There will be wedding season and Akshaya Tritiya demand in May, but supplies won't suffice. We may see high premiums till May, after that it may cool down," said a senior official with a private bank, which imports gold.
Gold is a popular gift at weddings in India. Akshaya Tritiya, which is on May 2 this year, is one of the days considered auspicious according to the Hindu calendar for gold purchases.
India's overseas purchases of gold may return to the 50-tonne mark only after June and hold steady thereafter until import curbs such as the so-called 80/20 rule - according to which a fifth of all shipments should be re-exported as finished product - are eased, industry sources said.
Prior to the curbs, India on average imported about 80 tonnes per month.
Traders Bet Silver Streak to End With Gold on Inflation
By Eric Lam and Callie Bost Apr 25, 2014 2:38 PM GMT+0200
Options investors are bargain hunting after a two-month slump in precious metals prices.
While silver has wiped out almost all of a 15 percent gain through the first two months of the year, the cost of bullish contracts on an exchange-traded fund tracking the commodity has climbed to a three-year high relative to bearish ones. Traders are betting prices will rise with gold amid quickening inflation, a return of overseas demand and as the conflict in Ukraine continues.
Both silver and gold had their worst performances in more than 30 years in 2013, falling 36 percent and 28 percent, respectively. Investors lost faith in precious metals as a store of value amid an improving U.S. economic outlook and the prospect of the Federal Reserve cutting back on its monthly bond purchases.
“Silver is a precious metal, but it’s also an industrial metal and it’s taken a real punch in the face in the past few months,” Mark Sebastian, director of trading and investments at Swan Wealth Advisors Inc., said by phone from Chicago. His firm manages about $1 billion. “You’re probably seeing some pressure on puts and a bid on calls because the metal’s cheap. None of the precious metals are having the best years right now.”
Silver rallied to a 2014 high of $22.215 an ounce in New York in February, before tumbling to reach a low of $18.95 yesterday. Gold has dropped 7.3 percent from a six-month high reached March 17, partly as investors assessed the pace of further cuts to the Fed’s monetary stimulus. The central bank reduced its bond purchases in March for a third time and indicated it will continue to pare the program.
The price of silver will rebound as demand for gold rises, said Philippe Capelle, a fund manager at Standard Life Investments Inc. in Montreal. China became the largest gold user last year as the steepest price drop since 1981 spurred demand for bars, coins and jewelry, according to estimates by the World Gold Council. In addition, the results of India’s election due in May are expected to bring a loosening in tariff rules introduced last year that led to a drop in official imports and a surge in cross-border smuggling in the country.
“Silver is gold on steroids,” Capelle said in an April 21 phone interview. His firm manages about C$33.2 billion ($30.1 billion) in assets. “If you think gold goes up, then silver will go up more. It’s what happens historically. I like the risk-reward on the silver price.”
Gold is considered an inflationary hedge, and the Commodity Research Bureau Food Index shows prices rising. The gauge, which tracks pricing on foodstuffs including lard, butter, corn and sugar, has surged 22 percent from a three-year low touched in December.
The U.S. consumer price index climbed on an annual basis by 1.5 percent in March, from a 1.1 percent gain in February that was the smallest in four months.
Investors have been trying to gauge the Fed’s intentions on interest rates since the central bank said in March that it will look at a “wide range of information” when considering the first increase since 2006. Chair Janet Yellen also said at the time that the rate might start to be raised “around six months” after the Fed ends its bond-purchase program.
“If interest rates were starting to move higher because of inflationary pressures or fears, that wouldn’t be bad for prices,” said Matt Skipp, chief investment officer at Sw8 Asset Management Inc. in Toronto April 21. His firm manages about C$36 million.
Geopolitical turmoil may also support precious metals as investors seek a haven. Aaron Izenstark, the co-founder of Iron Financial LLC, said the market views the tension between Russia and Ukraine as largely contained, so any escalation toward armed conflict would be seen as a significant shock.
“That would be a game-changer,” Izenstark said in a phone interview from Northbrook, Illinois. His firm manages about $2.2 billion. “Right now, things seem like they are contained, but if the world starts getting involved and it flares up again, you could see precious metals rally in a significant way.”
President Vladimir Putin warned Ukraine against continuing its anti-separatist offensive yesterday after government troops killed five rebels and prompted Russia’s military to begin new drills on the two nations’ border. President Barack Obama said the U.S. and its allies have prepared additional sanctions against Russia, with an agreement to disarm rebels signed last week in Geneva on the brink of collapse.
Het westen zit dit jaar zonder goud
By Ronald Hendrickx on 24/04/2014
De goudmarkt gaat momenteel door de diepste backwardation in 8 maanden. Dit heeft de goudmarkt nog nooit meegemaakt en is historisch in alle opzichten. In het verleden zorgde het einde van backwardation steeds voor een forse opstoot van de goudprijs. Dit is ongezien aldus James Turk op King World News.
Backwardation krijgt men als goud goedkoper is als de Amerikaanse dollar, deze situatie doet zich voor wanneer er een tekort is aan fysiek goud. Backwardation in goud blijft maar duren en de goudprijs zit al 9 maanden in een bodemproces, dit is uitermate positief voor de goudprijs. Het is niet dat dit het nieuwe normaal is, dit is een afwijking door het gedrag van de centrale banken.
Het westen haalt het fysieke goud uit zijn kluizen en verkoopt het aan het oosten en nog is dit niet genoeg om de backwardation weg te krijgen. Net als in 1999 en 2008 zal de goudprijs als een raket omhoog schieten als backwardation ten einde is. Er zijn nu al geruchten dat goudbaren uit de jaren ’60 gesmolten worden, dit wil zeggen dat we aan het einde van de goudvoorraden zitten – het gemakkelijk te vinden goud is verdwenen.
Men zal steeds dieper in de kluizen moeten gaan om nog goud te vinden voor het oosten. James Turk gelooft dan ook dat het westen dit jaar nog zonder goud komt te zitten.
Gold Bulls Return in Time for Rally on Ukraine Tensions
By Megan Durisin Apr 27, 2014 10:00 PM GMT+0200
Investors returned to gold just in time for the longest price rally in a month amid mounting tension over Ukraine.
Money managers increased their net-long position in gold in the week ended April 22, snapping a four-week retreat that was the longest this year. The metal climbed in the next three days, sending futures to the best start to a year since 2006.
Bullion reached a six-month high after Russia annexed Crimea last month, and then fell almost 9 percent on signs that peace would return. Hostilities last week fueled demand for haven assets as the 28-nation European Union prepared to impose more sanctions against Russians in positions of power.
“You’re going to get a lot of backwards and forwards in gold,” Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, said April 24. “The gold situation has been compounded by Ukraine. I’m very bullish on gold, but it’s going to be a trade for the patient.”
Futures rose 0.5 percent to $1,300.80 an ounce last week on the Comex in New York. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities fell 0.5 percent, while the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities dropped 0.2 percent and the Bloomberg Treasury Bond Index gained 0.3 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.
The net-long position in gold rose 0.5 percent to 90,572 futures and options in the week ended April 22, the first increase since March 18, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Both short and long holdings fell, signaling the change in net wagers was spurred by investors unwinding bets on a decline.
B_B schreef op 22 april 2014 16:52:
Ik geloof nog steeds in een "Perfect Storm".
- Aardbevingen (ketting reactie: een aantal grote aardbevingen achter elkaar)
- Margin Call crash
- Yen Carry Trade unwinding
- onrust in Midden-Oosten
SARS-Like MERS Virus Spreads to New Countries
April 27, 2014
Cases of the MERS Coronavirus have significantly increased in the last few months, and in recent weeks there have been reports of the virus in new countries including Egypt, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia, leaving officials struggling to figure out why infections have increased.
Saudi Arabia has 26 more cases of MERS virus, 10 dead
RIYADH Sun Apr 27, 2014 3:16pm EDT
(Reuters) - Saudi Arabia confirmed 26 more cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), which has killed nearly a third of sufferers, and said 10 more people have died from the disease.
The confirmations follow Egypt's announcement on Saturday that it had confirmed its first case of MERS in a man who had recently returned to the country from Riyadh, where he was working.
Saudi Arabia, where MERS was discovered around two years ago and which remains the country most affected, has now had 339 confirmed cases of MERS, of which 102 have been fatal.
The 143 cases announced since the start of April represent a 73 percent jump in total infections in Saudi Arabia this month.
Gold-Futures Selloff Wanes
By Adam Hamilton & Scott Wright | 28.04.2014
Gold’s sharp selloffs since mid-March have been mostly driven by American futures speculators’ heavy selling. These traders dramatically slashed their long bets on gold while ramping up their shorts. The resulting deluge of supply flooded the market and temporarily overwhelmed demand. But intense bouts of gold-futures selling quickly burn themselves out, and today’s is waning. Thus gold’s upleg is due to resume.
While many stock traders view the gold market through the lens of the mighty GLD SPDR Gold Shares ETF, it is still gold-futures trading that usually dominates price action. While GLD certainly can move the gold price on trading days with particularly large builds or draws from differential GLD-share buying or selling, these are fairly rare. The vast majority of the time gold and therefore GLD are driven by futures.
Speculators only need to keep $6500 in their margin accounts to control a single 100-ounce gold-futures contract! And at $1300 gold that’s worth $130k. Running extreme 20x leverage to gold doesn’t leave any wiggle room at all.
Gold and GLD price levels are dominated by US gold-futures trading! Gold rises when speculators buy gold futures, both in the form of adding new long-side contracts and covering existing short-side ones. The last episode of heavy gold-futures buying happened in January and February. Speculators first bought to cover shorts, and later bought to open longs. And GLD prices surged dramatically as a result.
At 20x leverage to gold on maximum margin, gold only has to rally a few percent to make all the new shorts really nervous. And over 1/5th of the speculators’ current gold-futures short positions were added in the last month alone! They’ve bet against gold despite its strong upleg in 2014, and they will buy to cover fast when gold starts moving decisively higher again. Short covering always feeds on itself too.
Chinese demand for gold to grow over the next four years
By Christopher Menon on Friday, 25 April 2014 at 11:54
Chinese savings levels remain high – there is an estimated US$7.5 trillion in Chinese bank accounts and household allocations to gold remain small, around $300bn.
Official gold holdings in China totalled 1,054t at the end of 2013 making the country the world’s sixth largest holder of bullion – based on this declared stock, gold represents 1% of China’s total official reserves (down from a peak of almost 2% in 2012) due to the rapid growth of the country’s foreign exchange holdings which reached around US$3.8 trillion at the end of 2013. Speculation continues as to whether the Chinese government has increased its gold holdings.
US$7.5 trillion + US$3.8 trillion = US$11.3 trillion
A total of 171300 tonnes of gold have been mined in human history.
Er is niet genoeg goud voor de Chinezen.
UPDATE 3-CME mulls price fluctuation limits for gold, silver futures
Tue Apr 29, 2014 6:51pm EDT
By Frank Tang
(Reuters) - U.S. futures exchange CME Group Inc is considering the introduction of daily limits on price moves in gold and silver futures in a bid to rein in wild volatility that has spooked investors in recent years, a CME official said on Tuesday.
CME at present has price fluctuation limits for futures contracts in some energy, agricultural commodities and financial products, but none for its precious and base metals products.
The possible move reflects growing concern at the largest U.S. exchange of futures and options about big bouts of buying or selling that have caused huge fluctuations in prices without any apparent fundamental reason.
"We don't have price limits in gold and silver. That's something that we are looking into," Miguel Vias, CME Group's director of metal products, said in a panel discussion at an industry event, in response to a question about how the exchange protects investors from excessive volatility.
U.S. exchange operators are already edgy about allegations over high-speed traders rigging the Wall Street stock markets and the so-called dark pools, or trading outside of exchanges, in the wake of the recently published book "Flash Boys: A Wall Street Revolt," by Michael Lewis.
The biggest concern for the exchange is the array of sophisticated trading programs that are capable of significantly pushing the market higher or lower, Vias said.
Unusually big moves and the fears of price "slippage" - the difference between the price at which a market player wants to execute an order and the price at which they are able to do so - have turned some gold and silver futures investors away, he said.
In the first four months of the year, COMEX gold futures volume dropped 10 percent from a year ago, while turnover of silver contracts gained about 7.5 percent.
The gold and silver futures are the most-traded commodity contracts after crude oil and other energy products.
Dealers say the frequency of wild price movements has increased, roiling trading. The exchange introduced circuit breakers, such as "stop logic," which prevents cascading stop orders that could exaggerate price movements in illiquid markets.
But support for setting limits on price moves does not appear to be universal.
"I think the breaks in trading are good, but I wouldn't support fixing price moves," said one U.S. trader.
The price of gold suffered a record two-day drop of $225 an ounce on April 12 and April 15 of last year amid fears of the U.S. Federal Reserve starting to unwind its market stimulus and news that Cyprus could sell some of its gold reserves.
In October, many traders and investors were rattled by a series of abrupt, and largely unexplained, trade surges that whipsawed prices and disrupted trade in CME Group's COMEX gold futures.
Unlike the meteoric declines in April and June, when institutional investors exited en masse in a two-day selloff, these seemingly sporadic trades lasted only minutes but overwhelmed volumes and price direction on each occasion.
China is donderdag en vrijdag gesloten.
Makkelijker om goud omlaag te brengen deze 2 dagen.
Maar de Gold Longs willen vrijdag de goudprijs minimaal 20 dollar laten stijgen.
B_B schreef op 2 mei 2014 01:24:
China is donderdag en vrijdag gesloten.
Makkelijker om goud omlaag te brengen deze 2 dagen.
Maar de Gold Longs willen vrijdag de goudprijs minimaal 20 dollar laten stijgen.
London gesloten (no Gold fixing), de Gold Longs hebben total control vandaag.
China: Philippines-US military drill must aim for peace
By Louis Bacani (philstar.com) | Updated May 6, 2014 - 10:35am
MANILA, Philippines — Defense treaty allies Philippines and United States should be dedicated to peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific as they hold joint military exercises, China's foreign ministry said.
On Monday, more than 5,000 American and Filipino troops began two weeks of military exercises to prepare to jointly deal with any potential crisis in the Philippines.
China laat vandaag zien dat je met geld meer kan bereiken dan met wapens.
Ze gaan de Dollar omlaag brengen (goed voor goud).
Rusland gaat vanmiddag een schepje bovenop doen (extra onrust in Oekraine).
De futures en de beurzen zijn nu positief.
DOW sluit bijna elke dinsdag positief, maar niet vandaag.
De angst is teruggekeerd op de Nasdaq.
Nasdaq trekt vandaag alle beurzen weer omlaag.
Gold turns lower after Putin comments, Yellen testimony ahead
May 07, 2014 12:59PM GMT
Investing.com - Gold and silver prices turned lower on Wednesday, after Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was ready to discuss a way out of the Ukrainian crisis with the head of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.
"Putin de schijnheilige"
Een positief gebaar van Putin wordt meestal gevolgd door een zeer negatieve gebeurtenis (door toedoen van anderen).
Small caps edge to full-blown correction territory
Patti Domm 32 Mins Ago
The more small-cap stocks get scorched, the more problematic some analysts say they could become for big caps.
But as of now, there aren't a lot of calls for a major downdraft despite the near 10 percent decline in the Russell 2000, and some analysts see the large cap indexes as more likely trapped in a sideways correction for a while, barring any macro catalyst. The Russell is down 9.5 percent from its March 4 high, and a double-digit decline is viewed by some traders as an official correction.
The bond market had its share of hiccups Thursday, with a weak 30-year note auction sending the long bond yield higher. Other yields moved lower, including the 10-year, which was at 2.61 percent late in the day.
Traders have been fretting about the low yields at the long end of the Treasury curve, and the flattening that has taken place, bringing longer duration and shorter term yields closer together. Flattening is a sign of a weakening economy.
- Small Caps correction.
- Zwakke (weinig vraag/kopers) 30-year note auction (zwakste in afgelopen 3 jaar).
- De treasury yields geven aan dat de economie aan het afzwakken is.
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||26 nov 2021 19:55