Goud « Terug naar discussie overzicht


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In top buyer China, local premiums over the global benchmark
have climbed to about $3 an ounce after trading at a discount
for most of the last two months on weak demand.
But they are still much lower than the over-$20 premiums
seen earlier in the year.
ANZ's Thianpiriya said unless premiums climbed to $7 or $8,
Chinese buying wouldn't have much impact on prices.


De Chinezen verwachten geen verdere daling van de goudprijs.
Ze zijn begonnen met HAMSTEREN.

B_B schreef op 18 maart 2014 15:24:

Woensdag > $1370
Vrijdag > $1400
April > $1500
Mei > $1700
Juni > $2000
Juli = B_B op vakantie

30% stijging deze maand!

China April HK gold imports down - but still up over 4 months
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Wednesday , 28 May 2014

The latest net gold import figures for April for gold flowing from Hong Kong into mainland China seem to confirm the downturn seen in the previous two months, although total year to date figures are still up on a year ago due to the very strong January and February import figures this year. Net gold flows into China from Hong Kong fell to 67.040 tonnes in April from 85.128 tonnes in March, reports Reuters, noting that this is the lowest level of Chinese gold imports via this route since February last year.
Despite the higher overall figures for the 4-month period, the April net import figures do indeed suggest that the market for gold in China is cooling, at least for the time being – a point borne out by the fall in premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange which have recently been bobbing around zero to negative.

Indeed the March and April fall-off in Chinese imports through Hong Kong is probably one of the contributors to the recent fall back in the gold price which has dipped to around the $1260s this morning – whether the lower gold price will re-stimulate Chinese demand remains to be seen.

Bloomberg reports Duan Shihua of Shangahai Leading Investment Management co, as commenting “Chinese consumers are buying fewer bars and coins. As prices climbed this year, bargain-hunting activity has calmed down.”


2014 wordt weer een record jaar voor China.

Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

Are There Any 'New' Catalysts To Cause Gold To Rally?


The Indian election was the latest non-bullish event.
Know the difference between a corrective pattern and a bullish
Upcoming week's expectations.

NB: We zijn nog niet op de bodem, maar er gloort langzamerhand licht aan het eind van de tunnel; Zie link:


China and India consuming more gold than the world mines
At last week’s Bloomberg Precious Metals Forum Ken Hoffman pointed out that Bloomberg figures suggest China and india alone are consuming more gold than the world’s miners produce.
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Friday , 30 May 2014

In opening last week’s precious metals forum in London, Bloomberg Industries Global Head of Metals and Mining, Ken Hoffman, kicked off with some of the latest stats which showed that China and India between them are consuming more gold than the world is actually mining. The Bloomberg figures suggested that China was consuming gold at a rate of 5.15 million ounces a month and India - even at a reduced rate through import restrictions - 2.85 million ounces a month, making a total of 8 million ounces a month. And these figures may even understate the case given the Bloomberg figures for China are based on gold imports through Hong Kong and China’s own production, whereas gold is also imported through other points of entry.

Meanwhile Bloomberg calculates global new mined gold output at some 7.44 million ounces a month making for a deficit of 0.56 million ounces a month.

Now the above figures would have been prepared before the latest April figures for China’s gold imports from Hong Kong showing a fall both month on month and year on year – although following exceptionally strong January and February figures.
But of course China and India are not the only big consumers of gold and this bears out reports from major forecasting analysts like GFMS that gold is fundamentally in deficit at the moment if one takes into account investor demand – even though this may be waning given the torrent of adverse media coverage based on price predictions from many of the major banks. Last year the gold price slumped, largely due to additional supply to the market through sales out of the major gold ETFs, but while sales out of the ETFs have ebbed and flowed this year so far it is highly unlikely such big sales volumes can be repeated this year. The general consensus is that much of the gold remaining in the ETFs is in much stronger hands now – while that which has flowed east is also in strong hands and far less likely to be put back into the market than that held in the West. So even though Chinese demand may be slowing, it remains very large by any other standards – and the return of positive, although still small, premiums on the gold price on the Shanghai market, currently reported at US$2-3 an ounce – suggest that demand is indeed remaining fairly strong.

Bloomberg analysts also predict that global gold output will fall around 1% this year, and should Indian demand return in strength should the new Modi government relax the current import restrictions, as many expect, the deficit in the fundamental supply/demand position for gold could be significant. While scrap sales of gold provide a lot of the balance – and have at times put the fundamental market into surplus, these are far lower at the lower gold prices being experienced at the moment.

Of course one of the big unknowns is whether China has been building its own gold reserves without reporting this to the IMF. Under Chinese logic this can be achieved by putting this gold into a separate account from its announced forex holdings and thus not having to report it. Bloomberg takes a calculated guess that it has indeed been building gold reserves and these are now likely to be nearer 3,000 tonnes plus than the reported 1,054 tonnes – the official level for the past five years. The suggestion is that the Chinese central bank continues to accumulate gold.

Overall, Hoffman commented that Chinese and Indian attitudes towards gold are very different from many investors and traders in the West and that people in those two nations understand the value of gold which is seen as having protected its holders from financial downturns for hundreds of years. He also pointed to Chinese's longterm view, with Chinese state-owned companies investing in overseas gold mining projects, as they have been for copper, seeing these two metals as key to the future of the country’s economy.


Er is niet genoeg GOUD!
Verwachtingen voor goud komende week.
Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net via SeekingAlpha: "Will Iraq Make Gold Soar?"

Iraq is not as important as most believe for the metals direction.
Short side has now become more complex.
Upcoming weeks' expectation.

Bits, het nieuwe goud
Telkens wanneer de prijs van goud daalt, stijgt de digitale Bitcoinmunt. CNBC vraagt zich af of beleggers goud inruilen voor de Bitcoin. Beide ruileenheden worden beschouwd als anti-fiatgeld.

In the last year, the price of bitcoin has surged fivefold.

Over the same period, the price of gold, the other favorite anti-currency, slipped nearly 10 percent.

In the last month alone, bitcoin's price is up more than 40 percent; gold is down more than 2 percent.

While bitcoin's moves have certainly been more pronounced, the divergence between the two is unmistakable.

They're both considered currency alternatives, safe stores of value to protect from wild swings in fiat currencies and money printing from central banks and irresponsible fiscal policy from governments.

So why are they moving in opposite directions?


roobaaro schreef op 16 juni 2014 15:47:

Waar komt die daling opeens vandaan?

hiervandaan. Maar irak houdt het beperkt..

DeZwarteRidder:Persoonlijk geloof ik toch niet dat de Bitcoin een duurzame concurrent is voor het goud. Goud zal een klassieke vluchthaven blijven.

bel19 schreef op 16 juni 2014 22:43:

DeZwarteRidder:Persoonlijk geloof ik toch niet dat de Bitcoin een duurzame concurrent is voor het goud. Goud zal een klassieke vluchthaven blijven.

Mee eens.

Goud is uniek, en er is ook geen ander materiaal dat de functie van goud zou kunnen overnemen.

Bitcoin is niet uniek, met aangepaste algoritmes kun je duizenden/miljoenen andere 'coins' maken, je noemt ze flipcoin, hipcoin en wipcoin en die werken verder hetzelfde als de bitcoin. Dat gebeurt ook al, alleen bitcoin is bekend omdat die vaak in het nieuws is.
Plus zit goud op dit moment maar net boven zijn gemiddelde productiekost. Wat op zich toch voor een bodem zou moeten zorgen. Tel daar nog een gebrek een veilige havens bij. En dan wordt het straks smullen voor de goudkevers.
Nu komen er slechte cijfers los(goede voor goud) huizenbouw omlaag en hogere inflatie en nu gaat de goudprijs nog meer naar beneden waar komt dat dan vandaan. Of is de crisis in oekraine en irak nu ineens opgelost????
Keek op de week voor goud.

Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net via SeekingAlpha: GLD: Maybe It's Time To Go Long?


- Are you thinking about going long GLD now?
- The bottom in metals may still have not been seen yet.
- Upcoming weeks' expectations.


Een zeer interessant (lijvig!) rapport over Au, dat ik via GATA ontving:


Lees vooral ook de conclusies aan het eind ...
Shanghai may launch gold trading bourse in Q4
2014-06-30 08:47Shanghai DailyWeb Editor: Qin Dexing

Shanghai may launch the international trading board for gold in the city's pilot free trade zone in the fourth quarter of the year, while gold consumption edged up 0.8 percent in China during the first quarter, local media reports said last week.

The new bullion trading board in the FTZ may attract foreign market players as China hopes to raise its influence on global gold prices. The FTZ may draw 1,000 tons of gold.

Physical gold consumption rose to 323 tons in the first quarter from a year earlier, local media reports said, citing Shanghai Gold Exchange data, the world's biggest market for physical bullion.

Xu Luode, secretary-general of the bourse, said earlier the international board will adopt Shanghai Gold, a spot gold trading mechanism similar to the Loco London Gold.

Singapore carves out position as Asia gold hub
Dhara Ranasinghe | @DharaCNBC
Thursday, 26 Jun 2014 | 6:49 PM ET

Singapore, an Asian hub for banking and finance, is ramping up its bid to become a center for gold trading that may one day rival London.

This week the Southeast Asian city-state unveiled plans to launch a physically deliverable gold contract in September to meet strong demand from Asia – home to the world's biggest gold consumers.

"I think this is the next step for Singapore, which has made a number of moves to turn itself into a gold hub," said Victor Thianpiriya, a commodities analyst at Australian bank ANZ.

Read More Singapore Exchange to launch physically backed gold contract

"Singapore is already a hub for financial services and wealth, so it makes sense that it wants to make itself a benchmark for gold trading in Asia."

The Singapore Exchange said on Wednesday that the contract will be the world's first wholesale 25 kilobar gold contract and will be made up of a series of six daily contracts.
Vanaf september belangrijke goudhandel in China en Singapore.
Hogere goudprijs garandeert het succes van de opening van de goudhandel in China en Singapore.
Ze hebben 2 maanden de tijd om een goudrally te forceren.
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