SNSN schreef op 28 januari 2015 17:17:
Yes, the recent prices & volumes are positively correlated. Partially it could be a result of interfering short-/mid-/long-term (contradictory) factors. In particular, a low prob for any serious q4- performance changes (relatively to q3/q2), and objective grounds for actual outperformance within the next quarters. Many strategies assume neutral positions/actions just before the q-results (given different short/mid-term expectations), while some other parties/strategies usually suggest exactly opposite (though the amount of sellers/buyers decreases/increases asymmetric with descending/ascending prices ) .
Indeed, trading pattern reflects well known expectations:
- most likely NO principle changes in q-results yet, as by default the new (improved) financials and tax advantages just couldn't work in full extent yet;
- reasonably high prob for (reasonable) performance improvements (based on improved fundamentals) within the next quarters;
- future kpn performance/profit could (theoretically) rise even at a fixed (or even slightly decreasing) number of its customers (conditional on rational board behavior);
- kpn is market/credit-default risk-neutral fund, which is just one out of a few undervalued funds (left at the moment) within the highly overvalued indices (actually asset bubbles);
- the change in "active shareholders" structure is (almost) completed, even if there could be still a number of takeover-dreamers (the main amount of active strategies is a bit more realistic now);