Tom3 schreef op 12 september 2020 00:01:
Dit schreef Holden 6 maanden geleden (en dat was bepaald niet negatief):
OK...So throwing a dart here but not entirely. Given that my state has shut down schools and I am not going to work while the kids are home, I have some time. I assume ARWR will come in under the wire and dose Hif2 p1b w/in two weeks. That's close enough for me to make my speculative pronouncement. All you suckers who are short this thing or people sold because they are on margin and got called or simply didn't have the sweet breads to hang in here are going to be crying...
Speculating with an infrequent poster, we think as soon as we see the results from 2 or 3 scans the company will not only roll out new individual indications but they will roll out indications that represent entire classes of cancer with dozens of addressable indications. Hif2 is already one such indication. I believe the IP for Hif2 shows 26 addressable cancer targets. We think the next one will be Aeg1. Eventually down the road we think that these two indications alone will lead to supremely effective combination therapies. We think there will be more of these as the IP portfolio suggests. OK...So you are thinking, "Big deal...several years out this might be worth a few billion." To that we say, "Bunk!!!" The company has already said that we should see HIF2 data before the end of the year. That's probably less than nine months.
But here's the icing on the cake in terms of near term value creation. Think sweet hazelnut icing that only the best Viennese cafes serve. We think the company has a robust preclinical oncology pipeline...right now, at present. Further, we speculate that once we have POC data for HIF2, they will spin oncology off to shareholders as its own piece of paper. There are several way to do that and I won't go into any detail but at some point they will send out a document (prospectus, NewCo, etc...) outlining the pipeline, business structure, management, etc...Call that day, "Money Day." The day we see ARWR skyrocket in price (if it hasn't already) is the day they announce an oncology spin off or IPO. (How they do that has tax implications so we shall see what form it takes.) Why do we think they might do this? CA has already said they don't want to become a cancer company. But that's really not appropriate for management to decide. It's for shareholders to decide. So put it out there for a vote in a proxy filing.
I can say for myself, owning a piece of a publicly traded oncology company that has an enormous pipeline of cancer drugs delivered using a proven delivery platform with which the FDA in increasingly familiar and enthusiastic, is wildly attractive. That would be the perfect Wall Street story. An IP-protected portfolio of indications that address hundreds of types of cancer with proven human results and 1 or several commercialized products. A disclosed group of dozens of pre-clinical candidates. Oh...did I leave out that there is presently only one company that can do this because a vast majority of the targets are outside the liver? My favorite word...MONOPOLY!!! Think of it. An oncology monopoly. Small molecule, random walk chemotherapies will go the way of the dodo almost overnight. This could be the biggest IPO in history. OK. OK, it's speculation but not entirely...and we'll leave it at that for now. More after Hif2 dosing.