Nog even een berichtje van een gewaardeerd poster op het Yahooforum, speciaal voor degenen die msn wat vertrouwen aan het verliezen zijn...
Something I was thinking about regarding the discussion yesterday when the term buyout came up.
First, know the value of what you own! Each product in development represents at least the current market cap if approved.
Second, some represent much more and those that have been partnered have a shared risk with large players that are betting their futures on these products.
Third, deals moving forward, if they take place, will more likely look like the Takeda deal. One of the many things to consider with that 50/50 US split is that ARWR can keep the project moving at ARWR's pace and not the whim of the partner. Also, I think the three partnered products are gaining in their probability of success and with that, many large milestones and royalties should be forthcoming.
forth, ARWR should recieve go/no go regarding JNJ 1,2,3 and initial milestones could be collected in 2021.
fifth, with Baird saying buyout by Amgen I started thinking more down those lines. In a conversation offline with Holden, regarding this topic months ago, his opinion was that only 4 companies worldwide could afford to buy ARWR and none could justify if to their board's. If I remember correctly only one is in the healthcare space and we are already partnered with them and it isn't Amgen.
The difficulty comes in with how do you assign fair value to a company who is developing revolutionary, blockbuster products with every swing of the bat yet doesn't have any of them commercialized yet? The data and safety doesn't lie, and yet a valuation would have to be unorthadox and follow the likes of Amazon, in their growth phase, prior to flipping the earnings switch, when the PE was off the charts for years with people there knowing what they owned.
I myself think that if an offer to purchase were to come it would have to be a very large offer (north of 40-50 billion) currently and no aquiring board member could do that. Anything less than that with what we know today, and insiders know more, should not be considered by ARWR.
In my opinion, Amgen could make an offer to buy APOC-3, ANG-3 to the tune of 25-30 billion this year, and I would consider that as long as the data ARWR is seeing regarding all other pipeline products holds intact.
Remember that time is on ARWR's side and their warchest will continue to grow thanks to milestones and royalties on deals already in play. Deals must make sense to ARWR or they don't have to play!
ARWR can continue to push products through trials on their own and the farther they push, the more value they create, the more patients and investors benefit.
2021 in my opinion will be a fantastic year and anyone not buying up to their personal max allotment needs to do additional research on what they don't understand about ARWR.
2021 will be the best year yet and I think each year after will be better than the previous for years to come.
Net als bij de vorige terugval is de koers ongeveer aanbeland aan het 50 daags gemiddelde. Ik laad nog één maal bij. :-)