1 weekje oud, deze tekst van BBS maar ik vind hem ditmaal redelijk neutraal :
As most of you would agree, there are only 3 serious RNAi companies out there that have been able to adequately master the science, that being Alnylam, Arrowhead, and Dicerna. This latest move by Novo Nordisk definitely surprised me. I have no doubt that Novo Nordisk will get at least 10x return on their money in the near future, and I'm pretty sure all the other big pharmas know that as well and this latest buyout of Dicerna definitely puts them on notice. This wasn't just any old buyout, this was an 80% premium - a bit of a rarity when it comes to biotech, though it does happen.
So now it's just down to 2 RNAi companies left - Alnylam and Arrowhead, and if you compare how each has delivered over the last 4 years, it's pretty easy to see that Arrowhead has the momentum. Even Dirk has admitted as much, and it's not hard to see why. Over the last 4 years Alnylam introduced 4 new drugs (1 of which was dropped), and Arrowhead introduced 10 (1 of which is paused). On a head-to-head matchup, it appears that Arrowhead's AAT drug is superior to Alnylam's, as ALN-AAT02 was dropped (speculation of safety issues). With regards to HSD, Arrowhead was in the clinic 6 months before Alnylam, even though Alnylam announced their target well before Arrowhead did. Additionally, Arrowhead presented 2 extrahepatic drugs to Alnylam's zero. While I still believe that Alnylam is still a great company that's grossly undervalued, it's pretty clear that Arrowhead has eaten everyone's lunch these last 4 years, including Dicerna and Alnylam.
So where does that leave things? There are now at least a dozen big pharma companies that are probably rethinking their strategies after this Dicerna buyout. While both Arrowhead and Alnylam probably want to go it alone, big pharma knows how to convince, and that usually means tacking on an additional billions of dollars to an offer - why? because they're big pharma, and they can afford to do it, especially if it means that they can keep others from acquiring that company. So here's a list of the big pharma companies, of which I'm sure over half probably have a serious interest in RNAi:
Johnson & Johnson
Now that's a serious list of companies, and it's pretty easy to make an argument for every one to make the next move.
That 80% premium for Dicerna will definitely resonate with the Boards of Alnylam and Arrowhead. They now know that since there are now only 2 legitimate RNAi contenders left, any relative premium has now gone significantly up. Not just that, I can't imagine any future RNAi buyout happening without a bidding war behind the scenes. While I prefer not to see any more buyouts in this space, the pressure will now always be there, especially after every phase 3 trial begins, and even more so after every approval.
On a side note, Arrowhead is supposed to have a multidisciplinary hearing with the FDA this month regarding AAT. Not sure if the meeting already happened, we may find out any day.