Happy Chappy schreef op 8 maart 2016 19:01:
Tom lees dit even " THE ECB's MARCH package "
the preview from Investment Banking
ECB meeting will very likely deliver monetary stimilus, but there is uncertainty about exactly what it will do
- our base case is 20bp deposit rate cut coupled by steps to cushion the impact on Banks such as tiered rate system and a new long-term loan facility
-expect an increase and extention of QE, which should be facilitated by removing the deposit rate floor for purchases
- we believe further monetary stimulus is justified and will have a positive effect, though the ECB needs support from other policymakers
as there is scepticism about the impact of monetary policy, some argue it is ineffective at best and harmful at worst, leading to worries there is a limit to what central Banks can do to tackle the increased downside risks to the outlook for growth and inflation
expect the folwing measures
- rate cut to -0,5%
- tiered deposit rate system
- new long-term loan facilities
- euro 10 bio increase in monthly asset purchases
- removal of the deposit rate floor for asset purchases
now the big questions :
will the ECB deliver ? YES, after the december deception , the ECB will now likely deliver
will neg rates do more harm than good ?
a more deeply negative deposit rate on bank excess reserves will on balance likely be positive for the economy if the system is well designed
the experience so far is encouraging. evedince from Sweden is the proof in the pudding, more negative rates have seen more positive trends.
it is a question of well channeling and taking steps to minimise the impact on Banks.
has monetary policy reached its limits ? No, ECB can create room to manoeuver, with a triered system it could cut dep rates further beyond March
there is no limit to the amount the ECB ca produce and centrals Banks have proved to be innovative in ways to think abt stimulus, he ECB could be more aggressive in its ABS programme, buying more risky tranches of securities which would help tale loans off their balance sheets
the ECB needs help of other policymakers , increase in fiscal stimilus to foster a faster cyclical recovery, structural reforms can help to lift the long-term growth rate from its meager levels.
conclusie , als ze dit doen moet je Eurostock LONG zitten en de EURO Short
bullish for Euro stocks and bearish for the Euro.