SJURVM schreef op 2 januari 2016 16:54:
It will be a while before a product reaches the market.
We will have received some news about the products in the clinical pipeline + any development in the discovery programs that Galapagos has.
I say Q4 because share price move before any actual timeline being reached.
Assuming a 12 months "understanding" between Galapagos and Gilead the share price should/could move from Q4. That is depending on what timetable you look at i.e. the date of the agreement or the date of buying the shares.
Onno mentioned the fact that Galapagos has to grow big enough to make it more expensive to Gilead in the event of a take over.
He did not mention a timetable for this "getting bigger".
However after a dinner with Morgan Stanley we have a target of €100 being put forward.
Therefore instead of €2.2b now it would be +-€3.9b by..? So any moves by Gilead
to buy additional shares without triggering the take-over clause (29.9%?)could be done before the end of the agreement with Galapagos. Other companies in the market are also aware of this possibility i.e. Wellington etc.. and who knows if they might also increase their position?
Having written all that, it is my personal view on a potential scenario.