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KPN en telecom nieuws - September 2016

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[verwijderd] 6 september 2016 11:51
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For today: PP=2.910
Resistance: R1=2.924; R2=2.94
Support: S1=2893; S2=2.879

Consistent with just slightly negative d-sentiment the trading is within the S1-PP range.

Given price formation dynamics ('pdf'- structure) the prob is high that the stock would try to break above the PP-line, changing the d-sentiment towards 'slightly positive'. Though, if the PP-line wouldn't be broken upwards before ~14.20 some tech retreat can't be excluded.

With recent bullish reversal signal 'hammer' (Sep 2) the stock is forming a second low (since the first one on Jul 29) in a 'double bottom' pattern increasing the prob for further rising on longer horizons(see yesterday posts).
[verwijderd] 6 september 2016 11:58
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These are just copies of 'yesterday posts' on Sep 5 (from 'parallel branch'):

1. "For today: PP=2.88
Resistance: R1=2.918; R2=2.938
Support: S1=2.859; S2=2.821

On d-horizon, the stock just tested R1.

On longer horizons: the stock has tested strong lt-support at the upper edge of (strategic) lt/mt-support zone ~2.80-2.70.

On mt/st-horizons the prob for rising towards the first target ~3.60 is rising, and the stock (most likely) is forming 'double bottom' pattern.

The ~26% decline of kpn-stock (within last half a year) is almost entirely sector related, as the stock just picked up eu-telcos YTD-trending --> compare, for instance, with fte, dte, telenet, tef, which are down for ~(25-27)%

Because of jus objective reasons the above mentioned '~26% decline' for kpn-stocks has very little (actually nothing) to do with CS (read old posts for details)".

2. "Business as usual....

But, don't forget that last Friday (Sep 2) a bullish reversal pattern - 'hammer' - was formed (see also morning post).

This one day bullish reversal signal (hammer) is especially strong as formed i) within the clear downtrend, and ii) at the level of previous 'low' formed on Jul 29.

So, take care.

PS. For more info read old posts, as well as take a look at YTD daily kpn-charts to check/see how 'hammer' signals are working."

3. "The current price formation is mainly driven by just tech trading. The decline since last March is (mainly) sector related (read morning post for details). Neither CS, nor 'takeover' have anything to do with this. The 'fair value' is the same --> around ~4 (see posts since Aug 2013).

Due to objective reasons (see old posts) any takeover is unlikely (the prob is low) at the moment.

So, just read your 'candles' properly (see post above)"
SpecKlaas 6 september 2016 12:15
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Thanks SNSN, appreciated!
[verwijderd] 6 september 2016 13:04
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quote:

SNSN schreef op 6 september 2016 11:51:

For today: PP=2.910
Resistance: R1=2.924; R2=2.94
Support: S1=2893; S2=2.879

Consistent with just slightly negative d-sentiment the trading is within the S1-PP range.

Given price formation dynamics ('pdf'- structure) the prob is high that the stock would try to break above the PP-line, changing the d-sentiment towards 'slightly positive'. Though, if the PP-line wouldn't be broken upwards before ~14.20 some tech retreat can't be excluded.

With recent bullish reversal signal 'hammer' (Sep 2) the stock is forming a second low (since the first one on Jul 29) in a 'double bottom' pattern increasing the prob for further rising on longer horizons(see yesterday posts).
Ruim op tijd, dus voor 14:20 staat koers op 2,914 (en zelfs even 2,918); is dit dan al het juiste signaal?
[verwijderd] 6 september 2016 14:38
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On d-horizon:

The stock follows 'prescription' (see recent post), breaking above the PP well before the 'critical time' and changing d-sentiment from 'slightly negative' to 'slightly positive'. The (positive) d-signals came around ~9.30 & ~10.00. They were confirmed first around ~11.00. You were informed right after the second confirmation that came around ~11.40.

The next 'critical time' is around closing. For further 'smooth rising' (at the same 'speed') the stock must close at, or just above, the R1. Otherwise, standard tech/tactical retreat (reflecting just necessary d/st-volatility) can't be excluded.

On longer horizons:

A bullish reversal signal - 'hammer' pattern - came on Sep 2 (see recent posts). Sometimes (actually relatively often) the 'hammer' candle may follow by 'doji' candlestick (that often, but not always, reflects certain 'specific habits' of d/st/mt-traders), which may be (sometimes) a part of (followed) specific 'two days' pattern formation (confirming, or just rejecting former 'hammer'), before the actual st/mt- uptrending takes place.
[verwijderd] 7 september 2016 15:50
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Just copies of today posts (from parallel branch):

at 10.30:

For today: PP=2.910
Resistance: R1=2.928; R2=2.944
Support: S1=2.893; S2=2.876

The d-sentiment is 'slightly positive' --> control (possible) changes at the end of first hour.

The st-r-zone is actually very narrow: ~2.924-2.928

at 14.17:

The d-support and 'crucial point' --> M-(2.901)

Though, liquidity is extremely low ~0.22 M per 30 min.

Given last days price dynamics and clear pattern structures, 'active shorters' are vey careful, as well as st/d-long-strategies, resulting in low d-volatility and just 'neutral d-sentiment' (since ~11.00).

PS. Do not forget, a 'double bottom' d-pattern formed just near the M- level may trigger some d-move upwards soon....

at 14.32:

Business as usual...

Just standard tech d-trading at a lack of really objective news, as well as, 'well determined' st/mt-parties (take a look at recent posts).

As en example, you can clearly see the 'd-move upwards' (described at 14.17 --> see post above) started around ~15.00 and triggered by the 'double top' formed near the M- level.

The above mentioned 'upwards d-move' is supported by rising liquidity (partial volume increased from ~0.22 M/30min to ~0.62 M/30min)
naarden 7 september 2016 15:57
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Blok 2.935 111k stuks....
[verwijderd] 7 september 2016 16:12
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quote:

naarden schreef op 7 september 2016 15:57:

Blok 2.935 111k stuks....
Don't worry about such 'blocks'.

Usually it's just a 'fiction' (fake sell-orders)... Just standard 'price management/manipulation tools... The goal is just to 'impress' you, pushing to sell under that level. Usually they are moved higher if buying pressure rises towards the 'block-level', or just lower.

As you see, it's almost doubled now --> to ~213 K, and is placed at 2.930
[verwijderd] 7 september 2016 16:40
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As you see, 'big block' (see above) at 2.93 just reduced to 88 K... Though, it may still 'rise' in volume, as not everybody may be interested in a fast price rising (you may think, for instance, of someone opening a relatively large positions, or some other objectives)

PS. Don't forget that 'later afternoon' it's time of 'institutional investors'.... That's why the liquidity rose essentially (take a look at the above post).
naarden 7 september 2016 21:59
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@SNSN
Thanx for your feedback and explanations.
Very useful for this beginner.
SpecKlaas 8 september 2016 10:33
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Een kleine stijging in tegenstelling tot de AEX geeft vertrouwen. Hier kunnen we de komende dagen iets meer van verwachten.
[verwijderd] 8 september 2016 10:37
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For today: PP=2.919
Resistance: R1=2.936; R2=2.948
Support: S1=2.908; S2=2.89

The d-sentiment is positive, as the median of d-distribution is just slightly above the 'crucial point' M+(2.927).

Active d-traders take advantages of recent price formations, supported by yesterday st/mt-participants (read yesterday posts).
[verwijderd] 8 september 2016 14:32
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Just a copy of post from 13.12 (at parallel branch):

At low interest rates expectations for an extended period, it is the financial sector, and especially insurers, that is the most hit in sense of profitability, resulting in corresponding stocks' price formations.

Though, it's important just for mt/lt investors... Active d-trading strategies (for instance, 'asymmetric long/short') are actually neither sensitive, nor really affected by IR-developments.

PS. As for 'kpn', its d-sentiment stays positive (in spite of 'fake' news/publications).
[verwijderd] 8 september 2016 17:32
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Closing at/above ~2.93 is essential.

Take care.
[verwijderd] 9 september 2016 07:52
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(ABM FN-Dow Jones) Autoriteit Consument en Markt vindt geen gehoor bij de Europese Commissie in zijn poging het duopolie van Ziggo-vodafone en KPN op de Nederlandse kabel- en telecomsector te doorbreken. Dit meldde het Financieele Dagblad vrijdag.

Volgens ACM-bestuurslid Henk Don kan de Nederlandse consument de dupe worden in de vorm van hogere prijzen en achterblijvende informatie, schrijft het FD. Don ziet toe op eerlijke concurrentieverhoudingen.

De toezichthouder wil het voor concurrenten als T-Mobile en Tele2 makkelijker maken om de strijd aan te gaan met Ziggo-Vodafone en KPN. Daarnaast wil ACM volgens het dagblad dat voor Ziggo-vodafone dezelfde regels geleden als voor KPN bij de toegang van derde partijen op hun netwerk.

Donderdag meldde ACM dat KPN de tarieveren voor koperen aansluitlijnen verlaagt na bezwaren van de toezichthouder.

Het FD schrijft dat eurocommissaris Digitale Economie Günther Oettinger naar verwachting plannen zal presenteren voor de kabel- en telecommarkt, waarbij hij meer ruimte wil bieden aan traditionele telefoonmaatschappijen om zo de investeringen in breedbrandinternet te stimuleren.

"Volgens Don gaat de eurocommissaris voorbij aan de realiteit in Nederland dat nu al beschikt over twee hoogwaardige vaste netwerken en vier mobiele netwerken", aldus het FD.

Door: ABM Financial News.
[verwijderd] 9 september 2016 12:46
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For today: PP=2.932
Resistance: R1=2.951
Support: S1=2.918; S2=2.900

The S1 today almost coincides with the yesterday PP-level.

In spite of price decline since mid Aug, the accum. dominates over distrib. since July 28.
[verwijderd] 9 september 2016 18:21
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Do not forget:

There are NO profitable 'speculative' shares under ~2.84.

That's why to dive deeper under 2.84 some parties must take losses.

So, do not take losses voluntarily, if you don't need to do so, as the prob to repurchase lower is quite small (read old posts for details).

nice weekend everybody.

PS. Given above info, take a good care of your 'stops'. Just don't forget of standard 'stops hunting' (resulting in unnecessary losses taken 'almost voluntarily')
[verwijderd] 12 september 2016 20:02
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quote:

G. Roet schreef op 6 september 2016 09:51:

KPN heeft op vrijdag 2 september 2016 een Hammer patroon gevormd. Dit wordt gezien als een positief omkeerpatroon dat een eind signaleert van de dalende beweging.

nl.quoteweb.com/nl-nl/fonds-detail/te...

Tsja. TA Hocus Pocus. Blijven geloven jongens!
SpecKlaas 14 september 2016 10:00
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Wachten op herstel.
2,70 moet toch wel de bodem zijn. We komen aardig in de buurt van 2,40 van CS. En die heeft er meer verstand van dan wij. (hoop ik)
[verwijderd] 14 september 2016 11:44
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For today: PP=2.811
Resistance: R1=2.831; R2=2.87
Support: S1=2.772; S2=2.752

Following p/v/t-distributions, there were NO profitable speculative shares at all under the 2.79 level.

Since 09.40 today (till now 11.25) around ~1.15 M shares were sold out, including 'shorts', under the 2.79 level in the range 2.79-S1. That is (still) not so many people have taken (unnecessary) losses, providing 'd-shorters' quite cheap positive returns.

At the moment there are (still) NO profitable shares under S1, and to dive lower under S1 some parties must take losses... ('shorters' are exposed as well, those opening around S1). But 'shorters' anyway will try pushing down (in small volumes), hunting unreasonably high 'stops'. So, think well before selling your shares if you really need to take losses voluntarily, increasing somebodies returns, or you just keep your shares increasing upwards potentials, and reducing 'shorters profit'.

Take care. Think well. Do not forget, at so low liquidity (partial volume) the stock-price formation depends upon your actions as well...
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