storer schreef op 8 februari 2021 10:08:
Wel, dit las ik op Yahoo over relief. Best de moeite.
Ik hou hier ook vast; er zal wel een deel paniekverkoop zijn geweest en stoploss, zonder reden eigenlijk maar die voeden elkaar wel.
Dan is er een punt van stabilisatie waarbij het gewoon wachten is op nieuws. Bij veelbelovende aandelen (nieuws, koersdoelen), zijn velen erbij gebaat zo laag mogelijk in te stappen en daar hebben ze tijd voor. Eens het nieuws er is, kan de stijging niet tegengehouden worden.
Dit zie ik elke dag bij spineguard. Die stijgen enorm bij het minste nieuws en meestal kunnen die 5-10% gaan zakken op een dag. Dit kan dagen aanhouden en dan is er een lichte opflakkering maar je merkt het haast niet. Bij nieuws gaan alle remmen los en dan begint het opnieuw (afhankelijk van wat het nieuws was).
Kleine bijkomstigheid -> ik las gisteren biostatisticus uit vk aangeven dat grote evenementen jaren niet zullen kunnen doorgaan zoals we die kennen. De huidige maatregelen dan ook lange tijd aan zullen houden. Ik ga er dan ook van uit dat het testen gewoon niet zal verdwijnen en we koersdoelen ook vlot moeten kunnen halen. Het is gewoon wachten op nieuws. Tot dan zijn we speelmuis van de grote katten die goedkoop inslaan.
"The house always wins. The house being Wall St. of course. In the case of Relief, it is a very thinly traded stock. about 50m shares trade a day on both tickers. That would take 50 days to cycle through all the shares outstanding at 2.5b. Therefore, it is very easy for market makers to push the price and make it trade at whatever level they decide. Some may call in market manipulation, but all stocks work in the same way. They even do this on big stocks such as AAPL, because they can. Read up on max pain theory, where stocks tend to close on option expiration day at a price where the longs (buyers) lose most money on options. And the sellers (Wall St.) makes the most money but keeping as much premium as possible. They manipulate the closing price, by moving their bid/ask spreads accordingly, and maybe even dump or buy a few shares on the market to achieve their goals. Now when you look at RLF, unless there is very big volume due to big news, the MM can move the price wherever they want. Look at today. This is not a "sell-off" this is a manufactured lowering of the trading range, because they can. All they had to do is move the bid/ask spread down 0.02 to open down 4% in Switzerland. Then they dump another couple hundred thousand shares (for $100k) to drop the price to 0.52. Then they keep it in that range and setup bid/ask spreads accordingly. Why would they do that? 1. they might have some short positions (unlikely in this case). 2. They have buyers who want to accumulate a lot of shares and want to do so as cheaply as possible (this is most likely what is going on here). Here is how it works: Big Fund wants to buy 50m shares of RLF, and they are most likely long-term investors, so they want to accumulate as cheaply as possible and they don't care how long it takes. If they tried buying all those shares today, they would make the stock go up 200%. If they did this over a week, it would probably make the stock go up 50%-100%, and they don't want to pay more than necessary. So, what happens is they use MM to do the job for them (or they use their own in-house traders). That is why an MM will dump 200k shares to move the price down 0.02. They will then accumulate throughout the day. With 50m traded, they might accumulate 500k? 1m shares per day without moving the price back up (thanks to stupid traders with short term mindsets and stop losses, which I never used in my life). How do I know this is happening? Because this is how Wall St. works. It isn’t short sellers holding the price down, because the short interest on RLFTF is under 2m shares or less than 0.1%, so they can’t be doing this. It is very easy to manufacture a price for this thinly traded stock to accumulate. These are not sell-offs at all. Another tell-tale is to look at daily candles, especially the volume ones. A green volume candle means the stock closed higher than the day before, and a red one vice-versa. If you look at the chart you can see that the green volume candles are bigger than the red ones. This means the we have more buyers than sellers. But the price doesn’t go up because of how MM games the price on low volume days (like today). So how do you beat them at this game? It is the easiest thing in the world to beat them: BUY AND HOLD. It really is that simple. Then you use their dips and BTFD. (Buy The #$%$ Dip). And then you hold again. Don’t use stop losses, and don’t sell into weakness. Just hold and wait. Let the weak hands and traders give their shares away to Wall St. Funds. Hold and forget about your shares. You have nothing to worry about until you see sell-offs with huge selling volume. We have not seen any days like that thus far. The MM can play this game until the news is so good that they can’t hold it back any longer. I.e. if we get EUA approval, the stock will shoot through the moon and they can’t hold it back. They will wait a few days for volume to dry up again to setup a new accumulation period if we have another quiet news period. If the demand for shares is too big, then the rally can last a very long time, obviously with some very big dips in between. Buy, Hold, Wait, WIN!"