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AMG: lithium met de laagste kostprijs

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Clean Teq doet het bijzonder goed en dat is logisch, want ze hebben lithium, kobalt en scandium.
Metal supplies unlikely to seriously hamper battery use
Published on Mon, 16 Oct 2017

Gears Of Biz reported that the dramatic rise in production of electric vehicles, coupled with expected growth in the use of grid-connected battery systems for storing electricity from renewable sources, raises a crucial question: Are there enough raw materials to enable significantly increased production of lithium-ion batteries, which are the dominant type of rechargeable batteries on the market?

A new analysis by researchers at MIT and elsewhere indicates that for the near future, there will be no absolute limitations on battery manufacturing due to shortages of the critical metals they require. But, without proper planning, there could be short-term bottlenecks in the supplies of some metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, that could cause temporary slowdowns in production.

The analysis, by professor Elsa Olivetti and doctoral student Xinkai Fu in MIT’s Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Gerbrand Ceder at the University of California at Berkeley, and Gabrielle Gaustad at the Rochester Institute of Technology, appears today in the journal Joule.

Olivetti, who is the Atlantic Richfield Assistant Professor of Energy Studies, says the new journal’s editors asked her to look at possible resource limitations as battery production escalates globally. To do that, Olivetti and her co-authors concentrated on five of the most essential ingredients needed to produce today’s lithium-ion batteries: lithium, cobalt, manganese, nickel, and carbon in the form of graphite. Other key ingredients, such as copper, aluminum, and some polymers used as membranes, are considered abundant enough that they are not likely to be a limiting factor.

Among those five materials, it was quickly clear that nickel and manganese are used much more widely in other industries; battery production, even if significantly increased, is “not a significant part of the pie,” Olivetti says, so nickel and manganese supplies are not likely to be impacted. Ultimately, the most significant materials whose supply chains could become limited are lithium and cobalt, she says.

For those two elements, the team looked at the diversity of the supply options in terms of geographical distribution, production facilities, and other variables. For lithium, there are two main pathways to production: mining and processing of brines. Of those, production from brine can be ramped up to meet demand much more rapidly, within as little as six or eight months, compared to bringing a new underground mine into production, Olivetti says. Although there might still be disruptions in the supply of lithium, she says, these are unlikely to seriously disrupt battery production.

Cobalt is a bit more complex. Its major source is the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which has a history of violent conflict and corruption. Ms Olivetti said that “That’s been a challenge.” She added that “Often a mine’s revenue comes from nickel, and cobalt is a secondary product.”

But the main potential cause of delays in obtaining new supplies of the mineral comes from not its inherent geographic distribution, but the actual extraction infrastructure. She said that “The delay is in the ability to open new mines. With any of these things, the material is out there, but the question is at what price.”

She said that to guard against possible disruptions in the cobalt supply, she added that researchers “are trying to move to cathode materials [for lithium-ion batteries]that are less cobalt-dependent.”

The study looked out over the next 15 years, and within that time frame, Olivetti says, there are potentially some bottlenecks in the supply chain, but no serious obstacles to meeting the rising demand. Still, she said that “it’s important for stakeholders to be aware of the bottlenecks,” as unanticipated supply disruptions could put some companies out of business. Companies need to think about alternative sources, and “know where and when to panic.”

Ms Olivetti said that nd understanding which materials are most subject to disruption could help guide research directions, in deciding “where do we put our development efforts. It does make sense to think of cathodes that use less cobalt.”

Source : Gears Of Biz/voda

Horizongloort schreef op 16 okt 2017 om 18:25:

Dit blijft me verbazen..

annual EV production is forecast to reach 500,000 cars by 2020.

Terwijl dit de verwachting van de IEA is:

De komende jaren zal de verkeersdeelname van elektrische auto’s gaan stijgen. In 2020 zullen tussen de 9 miljoen en 20 miljoen elektrische auto’s wereldwijd aan het verkeer deelnemen naar verwachting van de IEA. In 2025 zal dit aantal gestegen kunnen zijn naar 40 tot 70 miljoen.

Volgens dit artikel is er er nauwelijks een alternatief voor de lithium ion batterij. Misschien vanadium redox. In dat geval zou trouwens amg vanadium daarvan de vruchten kunnen plukken.

FD 23-10 Chinezen azen op miljardenbelang in lithiumbedrijf SQM

Het Chinese staatsbedrijf Sinochem is een van de bieders op een belang van $4 mrd in Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (SQM), een van de grootste producenten ter wereld van lithium. Dat is een belangrijke grondstof voor accu's in elektrische auto's. Dat schrijft de Financial Times maandag op basis van anonieme bronnen.
Elon Musk: Our lithium ion batteries should be called Nickel-Graphite…
5th June 2016Gigafactory, Graphite, Lithium, Tesla,

… Yet Tesla executives fail to allay lithium shortage fears //

Tesla CEO Elon Musk and CTO JB Straubel have attempted to play down the role of lithium in a lithium ion battery, but could have inadvertently given themselves further supply headaches.

In response to a question of whether there is enough lithium supply, Musk diverted it onto two other key battery raw materials of nickel and graphite in an attempt to allay fears that there will not be enough lithium for an operational Gigafactory, which is set to become world’s largest lithium ion battery plant.

“Our cells should be called Nickel-Graphite, because primarily the cathode is nickel and the anode side is graphite with silicon oxide… [there’s] a little bit of lithium in there, but it’s like the salt on the salad,” the CEO explained.

Musk said that the amount of lithium in a lithium ion battery is about 2% of its total volume and that “lithium in a salt form is virtually everywhere… there is definitely no supply issues with lithium.”

Tesla also explained that it has been working with a number of lithium producers “from tiny start-ups to large name lithium companies all around the world and working with them to figure out the most economical or efficient ways … to have the capacity ready when we need it”.

Lithium’s most severe shortage

Despite Musk’s confidence, the lithium market is in its most severe shortage of modern times, a shortage that has seen internal Chinese prices for hydroxide reach $30/kg while rest of the world contract prices have risen to up to $14/kg (FCL).

While Tesla has said that it does not expect any shortage for the Gigafactory, it also revealed that the battery megafactory will be producing complete cells, from scratch, ahead of schedule in Q4 2016.

“We need to make sure we have the [lithium] extraction and processing capacity [ready] but it’s not that much different to lining up other supply chain components for the car it just has long lead time,” Straubel explained.

However, with limited new lithium supply set to hit the market within the next 18 months, the shortage of both carbonate and hydroxide is set to continue particularly as China’s electric bus production and electric car output surges.

This timing will also coincide with Tesla’s Gigafactory expansions in 2017 and 2018.

It is, however, important to note that new short term lithium supply will be coming from hard rock lithium sources in Australia destined for China.

As stressed by Tesla, lithium is an immature market that is not exchange traded. Last year, only 15,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide was used in batteries.

Tesla alone will need at least a third of this quantity in 2017, its first year of Gigafactory operation.

While FMC Lithium were the latest to announce plans to triple its lithium hydroxide production by 2019 to 30,000 tonnes, the question remains whether there will be enough feedstock product available to supply this.

Graphite overlooked

When downplaying the lithium supply issue, Tesla explained that the most important cost factors to a lithium ion battery included the cost of nickel and the graphite anode.

“The main determinants on the cost of the cell are the price of the nickel in the form that we need it… and the cost of the synthetic graphite with silicon oxide coating,” explained Musk.

Graphite has not experienced the price spikes that lithium is going through primarily because the price is driven by the materials’ consumption in steel, a globally depressed market.

As a result, graphite’s supply situation has fallen under the radar.

At present, Tesla uses Panasonic manufactured cells which use both synthetic graphite and natural spherical graphite for anode material, all of which is sourced from China.

For the Gigafactory, however, Tesla has had to source all raw materials itself and, in a bid to drive costs down and improve battery performance, Benchmark understands that Tesla favours the natural spherical product due to its lower cost profile and lower carbon footprint for manufacturing.

Today, 100% of natural spherical graphite is produced in China, and last year alone production expanded by nearly 50%. Increasing demand has seen prices of uncoated spherical graphite increase by 10% in the last two months.

While the country is increasing its spherical graphite capacity, there is a fear that there will not be enough quality product available for internal Chinese needs together with other emerging customers such as Tesla.

In many ways, however, Elon Musk was correct. Graphite’s importance to the cost of a lithium ion battery cannot be underestimated.

While the average cost of an anode is 30% of a battery, graphite is 50% of the anode cost equating to 15% of the cost of a cell.

Meanwhile, the average cost of the cathode is 40% with lithium being 50% of the cathode cost, equating to 20% of the cost of a cell (before the Q1 2016 price spike).

If you consider that there is more graphite in a lithium ion battery than lithium, the cost of graphite to a battery could be as, if not more, significant than lithium. It just has not been considered because the price of flake graphite feedstock is low and there is a synthetic substitute.

But considering the preference towards natural spherical graphite, and the fact that demand is outpacing new supply, it is a subject that could soon rise to the surface, and in many ways, that is thanks to Tesla putting it on the radar.

Mad Scramble for Lithium Stretches From Congo to Cornwall
25 oktober 2017 01:00

AVZ Minerals has risen about 1,300 percent this year
While demand is expected to surge, lithium is fairly abundant

For evidence of just how hot battery ingredient lithium is right now, look no further than Australia’s AVZ Minerals Ltd.

A penny stock until a few months ago, the mining hopeful has surged about 1,300 percent this year. The proposition: recasting a remote, century-old tin mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo as a supplier of lithium needed to power electric cars.

While its rise has been dramatic, AVZ isn’t alone in the rush to position for a rechargeable-battery boom. In the U.K., a company founded by former investment banker Jeremy Wrathall is planning to tap thermal springs in Cornwall, a region more famous for its beach coves. Other companies are hunting for lithium deposits from Germany to Mali, and even Afghanistan plans to tender exploration permits.
Atlas Iron enters lithium game with Pilbara Minerals mine gate deal

The West reported that Pilbara Minerals has announced a two year tantalum offtake agreement with Global Advanced Metals after striking an innovative mine gate sales agreement with Atlas Iron.Pilbara Minerals boss Ken Brinsden has reacquainted himself with the iron ore miner he once led, striking an innovative mine gate sales agreement with Atlas Iron.

Under the tantalum deal, Pilbara will supply GAM with 100,000lb of 4 to 5% tantalum concentrate from its Pilgangoora lithium-tantalum project in the Pilbara, covering a portion of the 321,000lb of estimated annual tantalite production based on a low grade concentrate.

Pilbara said that the balance of tantalum concentrate is expected to be sold as higher value 25 to 30% tantalite product.

The company said it remained engaged with tantalum buyers for the balance of its tantalite production and was encouraged by the strength of demand for stable western sources of high-quality concentrate.

Pilbara noted the price of tantalum concentrate had risen over the course of the year to between USD 85 to USD 90/lb, well above the USD 73/lb on which the company based its Pilgangoora feasibility study.

Under the terms of the Atlas deal, the iron ore miner will buy between one million tonnes and 1.4mt of direct shipping lithium ore from Pilbara over 15 months, transport it to its Mt Dove crusher and ship it using its existing Utah Point port facilities at Port Hedland.

First exports are scheduled for the June quarter of next year.

Atlas said it expected to generate an operating margin of between USD 15 a tonnes and USD 20/t from the deal after allowing for payments to Pilbara and its own transport and crushing costs.

Under the terms of the deal, Atlas will pay an upfront pre-payment of USD 3 million to Pilbara.

China’s Sinosteel is the expected buyer of the ore under an agreement to be entered into with Atlas.

The deal allows Atlas to diversify its operations from the increasingly marginal, low grade iron ore business and utilise excess capacity at its crushing and port facilities.
In het hoofddraadje had men het over Rio Tinto n.a.v. de uitzending van BC afgelopen zondag. Hoewel ik niet heb kunnen vinden welke mijn Rio Tinto zou gaan overnemen, blijken ze wel al op een flinke voorraad Lithium te zitten middels een mijn in Servië die in 2023 in productie zou moeten komen. Dus toch wel interessant voor beleggers.

We’re Going to Need More Lithium
There’s plenty in the ground to meet the needs of an electric car future, but not enough mines.

Starting about two years ago, fears of a lithium shortage almost tripled prices for the metal, to more than $20,000 a ton, in just 10 months. The cause was a spike in the market for electric vehicles, which were suddenly competing with laptops and smartphones for lithium ion batteries. Demand for the metal won’t slacken anytime soon—on the contrary, electric car production is expected to increase more than thirtyfold by 2030, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Lithium Miners News For The Month Of December 2017
Dec. 25, 2017

Welcome to the December 2017 edition of the lithium miner news.

This month we have seen some of the analysts finally catch on to the reality of the EV driven lithium demand boom - including Roskill tripling their lithium demand forecast to 2026 to reach 1 million tpa. Yes you read that right - "tripling". Off course long term followers of mine have known for a long time this would have to happen, as you can read in my May 2016 article "The Lithium Boom May Have Only Just Begun A 20-Year Bull Run", where I forecast lithium demand in 2025 to reach 1.4mtpa.
AMG komt ook aan de orde in het bovengenoemd artikel

AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group NV [NA:AMG][GR:ADG](OTCPK:AMVMF)

AMG are a Dutch company that produces specialty metals and alloys such as titanium, chromium, ferro-vanadium, antimony, tantalum, niobium, silicon, graphite and soon lithium.

On November 2 AMG announced, "AMG is pleased to announce that it has mandated Outotec OYJ, Finland, to complete detailed engineering for a second lithium concentrate plant at the Mibra mine in Brazil. The annual design capacity of the second plant will be 90,000 tons, leading to a combined annual production capacity of 180,000 tons of lithium concentrate. Parallel to the engineering work on the second lithium concentrate plant, AMG is finalizing plans to double the operating capacity of the Mibra mine. The final investment decision for the second lithium concentrate plant is scheduled for December 2017. AMG expects the second lithium concentrate plant to be in production by the end of 2019."

On December 12 AMG announced, "AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. approves expansion of lithium and tantalum operations in Brazil."

Upcoming catalysts include:

June 2018 - Production to begin at the Mibra mine in Brazil (initially 90ktpa).
End 2019 - Stage 2 production (additional 90ktpa) to begin.
Wel lithium nieuws maar het gaat dus niet over AMG.

Lithium Junior Miner News For The Month Of December 2017
Dec. 28, 2017

Welcome to the December 2017 edition of the "junior" lithium miner news. Note: I have categorized those lithium miners that won't likely be in production much before 2020 as the juniors, rather than market cap as that fluctuates too much.
Lithium prices to fall 45% by 2021, Morgan Stanley says

Henry Sanderson 5 hours ago

Growth in electric cars will be “insufficient” to offset rising supply of lithium from Chile, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley, who forecast prices dropping by 45 per cent by 2021.

New lithium projects and planned expansions by the largest producers in Chile “threaten to add” around 500,000 tonnes per year to global supply by 2025, the bank said.

“We expect these supply additions to swamp forecast demand growth,” Morgan Stanley said.

Lithium prices have more than doubled over the past two years as demand surges for the key battery raw material due to growth in electric cars. A Tesla Model S uses more lithium in its batteries than 10,000 smartphones, according to estimates by Goldman Sachs.

Carmakers are scrambling to lock up supplies of the white metal, to back ambitious rollouts of electric cars. Tesla is in talks with Chile’s SQM over supply of lithium hydroxide, Chile’s regulator said in January.

This year will the be the last year of a global lithium deficit, however, Morgan Stanley said. There will be “significant surpluses” from 2019 onwards, the bank said.

“It would take much higher EV penetration rates to offset these surpluses and balance the market,” the bank said.

Battery electric cars would have to make up 31 per cent of global sales in 2025 from less than 2 per cent currently to “clear the market,” they said.

Morgan Stanley forecasts the price of lithium carbonate will fall from $13,375 a tonne to $7,332 a tonne by 2021, and then towards its marginal cost of production at $7,030 a tonne thereafter.

The bank also downgraded its ratings on the stocks of the two largest producers of lithium, Albemarle and SQM, to “underweight” from “equal weight.”

Over the past years both companies have secured an agreement with Chile’s regulator to expand production capacity in the country, which has the world’s largest reserves of lithium. The two companies will alone add an additional 200,000 tonnes a year of lithium by 2025, increasing Chile’s share of the market to a third of global supply, it said.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2018. All rights reserved.
Orocobre Limited Production Update
T.ORL | 23 hours ago

PR Newswire

BRISBANE, Australia, April 5, 2018

BRISBANE, Australia, April 5, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Orocobre Limited (ASX: ORE, TSX: ORL) ("Orocobre" or "the Company") provides an update on lithium production at Olaroz.

Production for the March quarter was 2,802 tonnes, down 29% from 3,937 tonnes in the December quarter. Sales were 3,052 tonnes with a record realised average price up 17% on the December quarter to US$13,533 per tonne on a FOB basis and record total sales revenue of US$41.3 million. Unit cost of sales for the quarter has not yet been finalised but will be higher than the previous quarter due to the lower production. Despite the increased unit costs, gross cash margins are expected to be higher than the December quarter (US$7,604 per tonne).

The lower production rate in the March quarter was due to evaporation rates that were 24% below those in 2017 with reduced solar radiation from cloudy conditions and above normal rainfall. In particular, the February mean evaporation rate was the lowest recorded since 2011 and less than half that of February 2017 resulting in lower than expected brine concentrations at the beginning of March. Concentrations improved during March but did not recover to the level expected, affecting production performance during this period.

Future production and guidance

Production in the June quarter is expected to be significantly higher than the past quarter. Harvest pond inventories remain approximately 30% above the same period last year and continue to be supplied with brine from intermediate and primary ponds in line with revised pond operating practices. Plant feed brine concentrations are currently 20% above the levels at the same time last year.

Even with an expected strong June quarter, the company now expects full year production (FY18) will be less than the previous guidance of approximately 14,000 tonnes. Further detail will be provided in the March Quarterly Report following the completion of modelling, but full year production will be approximately 10% lower than expected.

CEO and Managing Director, Richard Seville commented, "While I recognise this change in production guidance is very disappointing, the adverse weather conditions were outside of our control. Of the operational metrics that are in our control, I am pleased to report that we have seen improvements with greater stability of operations and despite the weather being worse when comparing solar radiation, rainfall and evaporation rate, we are in a significantly stronger position than this time last year.

"The operational team have made significant progress. However, recent weather events have confirmed the previously identified need to further improve the robustness of operations and reduce production variability from weather impacts. Plans for the Phase 2 expansion already include enhancements to the lithium carbonate processing plant and the potential use of evaporator/crystallizers during adverse weather events to maintain consistent brine concentrations prior to processing in both Phase 1 and Phase 2," he said.

Bij Orocobre is mooi te zien hoe moeilijk het is om de productie uit pekel op peil te houden laat staan uit te breiden.

DeZwarteRidder schreef op 6 apr 2018 om 14:24:

Bij Orocobre is mooi te zien hoe moeilijk het is om de productie uit pekel op peil te houden laat staan uit te breiden.

jup, & oa dat was Morgan Stanley blijkbaar vergeten :P

vooral volgende zin springt er uit..
''full year production will be approximately 10% lower than expected.''
Price projections

A month ago Morgan Stanley sent shares of lithium producers and explorers tumbling after the investment bank forecast a huge surplus in the market in 2022, resulting in forecast prices nearly halving from today’s levels.

The negative assessment raised eyebrows in the industry with executives criticizing Morgan Stanley for vastly underestimating the rise in demand, production ramp-up problems and bottlenecks with processing of battery-grade lithium compounds.

Morgan Stanley's bearish outlook was echoed by commodities researcher Wood Mackenzie which is forecasting a decline in the price of lithium this year that would turn into a rout from 2019 onwards.

Woodmac expects demand to grow from 233 kilotonnes (kt) in 2017 to 330kt of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2020 and 405kt in 2022, but that "the supply response is under way" and from 2019 supply will start to outpace demand more aggressively and price levels will decline in turn.

From highs near $26,000 a tonne in December, the London-based consulting firm sees prices averaging roughly $13,000 this year, dropping to below $9,000 in 2019. By 2022 lithium carbonate is forecast to average $6,500.

Not that these prices are much of a concern for the likes of Nemaska. In its March corporate presentation the company said it can produce lithium carbonate from its plant for $3,403 per tonne and lithium hydroxide for $2,811 making it one of the lowest cost producers anywhere in the world.

Nemaska is targeting production of 23kt of lithium hydroxide and 11kt of lithium carbonate from the spodumene mine per year. The company has already signed offtake agreements for 40% of its future production excluding Softbank's option. The bulk of lithium today is produced from salt flats in South America followed by hard-rock mines in Australia.
zo kunnen ze mooi alles in beweging zetten met dit soort forecasts en iedere keer op de weg omhoog en omlaag mooi handelen en provisie ontvangen:-)
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