Biocartis « Terug naar discussie overzicht

quote:

nat1966 schreef op 3 februari 2020 16:07:

altijd in da Engels amai vertaal da maar eens
terug een mooi dagje rood en morgen terug da weet je zo

quote:

Flatlander schreef op 3 februari 2020 20:40:

[...]

In the past, I have owned dozens of stocks that get slammed hard before a long term reversal that has resulted in several hundred percent increases in share price. This trend is common in news driven sectors such as biotech. If your position is too large or speculative to sleep at night, trim your holdings.

With regards to the English I use to post, the feeling is mutual. Despite using the translate function, I can't make any sense out of the message you are trying to convey.

FL

quote:

Stockbrood schreef op 3 februari 2020 21:47:

FL,

I based myself on the average growth in idylla systems since 2016 which is 12%. The standard deviation of the average growth since 2015 gives me a best case worst case margin of 5%-19%. 5% being not penetrating the newer markets as BCART would like + effect of doing american sales them selves giving more struggles than suspected. 19% being the opposite. THis would lead to 355/379/403 installed idylla systems based on worst/neutral/best case.

I started from 2016 as the growth in 2016 compared to 2015 was a massive 63%. This growth would be far from realistic, so excluded this from my calculation.

For the number of cartridged i see the number of cartridges already stabilizing around 135/idylla/yr. i do not see a spectacular growth in the useable amount of cartridges per system. for newer markets, this amount will be lower at startup.

with lower amount of installed systems i foresee larger amount of used cartridges (135 /system/yr)
for neutral amount of installed systems around 120/system/yr
for high amount of installed systems around 105/system/yr

leading to overal expecations of
worst case 355 systems --> total 1665 systems --> 222000 cartridges
neutral case 379 systems --> total 1690 systems --> 220000 cartridges
best case 403 systems --> total 1715 systems --> 218000 cartridges

regards
Stock

Great input Stock!
I'll put it in the spreadsheet
BL

quote:

brightlight schreef op 3 februari 2020 22:13:

Stock,
I follow your reasoning, but you must also remember that the current cartridge per console number includes RUO installations which surely brings the current number down. But indeed maybe the number will stabilize in 2020 before it goes up considerably when the US is no longer RUO.
BL