Stockbrood schreef op 3 februari 2020 21:47:
I based myself on the average growth in idylla systems since 2016 which is 12%. The standard deviation of the average growth since 2015 gives me a best case worst case margin of 5%-19%. 5% being not penetrating the newer markets as BCART would like + effect of doing american sales them selves giving more struggles than suspected. 19% being the opposite. THis would lead to 355/379/403 installed idylla systems based on worst/neutral/best case.
I started from 2016 as the growth in 2016 compared to 2015 was a massive 63%. This growth would be far from realistic, so excluded this from my calculation.
For the number of cartridged i see the number of cartridges already stabilizing around 135/idylla/yr. i do not see a spectacular growth in the useable amount of cartridges per system. for newer markets, this amount will be lower at startup.
with lower amount of installed systems i foresee larger amount of used cartridges (135 /system/yr)
for neutral amount of installed systems around 120/system/yr
for high amount of installed systems around 105/system/yr
leading to overal expecations of
worst case 355 systems --> total 1665 systems --> 222000 cartridges
neutral case 379 systems --> total 1690 systems --> 220000 cartridges
best case 403 systems --> total 1715 systems --> 218000 cartridges
Great input Stock!
I'll put it in the spreadsheet