Flatlander schreef op 3 maart 2020 22:37:
[...]
BL
It is difficult to pin down a market share before BCART has even begun selling into the diagnostic market in the U.S., China, Japan etc. We have been told that the traction in the EU has been good and that Idylla is now being used in a first line MDx capacity at numerous locations. Yet specific numbers have not been provided for the EU.
I believe that BCART has a powerful incentive for adoption in the US that cannot presently be matched by competitors. According to EACORP the insurers are reimbursing KRAS assays at U.S. $193. BCART sold the KRAS assays for about $133/ea and had a cost of about $90. If they maintain the same pricing after diagnostic approval they are allowing the health care test facility to keep about $60 per test. This would become a nice profit center for a lot of practices and will drive increased test orders. I assume at some point BCART will raise prices to improve margins but until then it is a powerful incentive for POC adoption. Unfortunately, BCART sales staff cannot even point any of this out until they receive approval.
Similarly for EGFR Testing
As shown by the following excerpt from (Colling, R., Bancroft, H., Langman, G. et al. Fully automated real-time PCR for EGFR testing in non-small cell lung carcinoma. Virchows Arch 474, 187–192 (2019).
doi.org/10.1007/s00428-018-2486-y), the EGFR assay has a significant price advantage over NGS testing.
"The Idylla™ EGFR Mutation Test costs around £170 per test (Europe-wide average) and is therefore comparable with most conventional EGFR PCR assays. In comparison, the cost of NGS gene panels is currently around £300. "
The EGFR assay is currently reimbursed U.S. $324.58 (The BCART price is about $220 per test). The specter of such a large mark up could really drive sales. Under this scenario, I think your 10% estimate could be light. Given the cost, ease of use and TAT advantages it seems like 25% market share would be realistic. It might grow to 50% if a cost competitive alternative does not hit the market for 5 or more years.
Until Diagnostic approvals, this is all guesswork. Once approved then real market data will emerge.
FL