Biocartis « Terug naar discussie overzicht

quote:

Rarezot schreef op 9 maart 2020 08:23:

I know nobody asked me, but I did a financial analysis on my own based on the year results of Biocartis. And right now, I value the company at about 9€/share. I know that is quite conservative compared to other analysts, but it still means that the company right now is extremely undervalued.

I do have a breakdown of the results, but since it hard to explain an entire spreadsheet in a post on here, I decided to post it on youtube. ( youtu.be/NuEuEmO-nVQ ).

I only use publicly known information. So FL, you don't have to be afraid of an 'investor notification' and to be honest I would really appreciate your opinion (I don't mind being proven wrong) :)

Rarezot

quote:

XiXiX schreef op 9 maart 2020 20:07:

[...]

Bedankt ! zeer interessant! dus 4.01 euro is een koopje :p
aan 3,51 koop ik nog eens bij als we dit ooit halen natuurlijk.
Ik zit er nu gemiddeld in aan 5,35. Mijn eerste pakje gekocht aan +/- 11 € en met wat trades dit nu toch op 5.35 gemiddeld gekregen, maar atm is deze te groot aantal in men portefeuille...

quote:

Rarezot schreef op 9 maart 2020 22:02:

[...]

Bedankt,

Ik vind dat zeker een koopje, maar niets is 100% zeker als het over aandelen gaat hé. Ik laat jullie gewoon zien hoe ik over zo een valuatie ga, maar dat wil niet zeggen dat ik juist ben. Net zoals professionele analisten fout kunnen zijn...

Ik dacht gewoon, ik doe gemiddeld 1 analyse per week, ik zal ze is online smijten (en direct mezelf verplichten dat te blijven doen) ;)

Rarezot

quote:

XiXiX schreef op 9 maart 2020 22:58:

[...]

Over welke aandelen zou je zoal analyse doen?

quote:

Rarezot schreef op 9 maart 2020 08:23:

I know nobody asked me, but I did a financial analysis on my own based on the year results of Biocartis. And right now, I value the company at about 9€/share. I know that is quite conservative compared to other analysts, but it still means that the company right now is extremely undervalued.

I do have a breakdown of the results, but since it hard to explain an entire spreadsheet in a post on here, I decided to post it on youtube. ( youtu.be/NuEuEmO-nVQ ).

I only use publicly known information. So FL, you don't have to be afraid of an 'investor notification' and to be honest I would really appreciate your opinion (I don't mind being proven wrong) :)

Rarezot

quote:

Rarezot schreef op 10 maart 2020 00:26:

[...]

Volgende is Elia. Ik focus me wel op Belgie, Nederland, Frankrijk en Duitsland.

Als je suggesties hebt, mag je het steeds laten weten. Dan zet ik ze op de lijst.

quote:

Flatlander schreef op 10 maart 2020 04:33:

[...]

Hi Rarezot
I liked the video. You did a good job quickly summarizing BCARTs business, potential and price history. I follow the valuation and don't disagree but I really don't know or follow the companies that form the basis of valuation comparison.

Today was a sore lesson that the correlation of just about all stocks goes to 1 during steep declines like we are experiencing. It made no difference that BCART had been previously beat down by the factors you listed. A small cap company like BCART seeking to sell into global markets is turning into one of the most vulnerable business models imaginable. Funny because in any other environment a world of potential MDx customers searching for a point of care solution that has attributes of Idylla would be considered an unbelievable opportunity. The virus is likely to have a long term influence on how companies view their global supply lines. When BCART gets the approvals that enables them to leverage partner sales force, it will take pressure of the sales team. The tier 1 clients was introduced as somewhat of a positive thing on the conference call. In reality it is largely what the RUO designation requires.

Much of BCARTs value is intangible (IP, publications/ testimonials of front line MDx users, pharma partnerships, attractiveness of the platform to content partners etc.). It is hard to factor these considerations into the valuation metrics. Besides the registration approvals, I think the other major consideration is that the market is trying to figure out the best way to incorporate MDx into their practice (Regional high throughput labs vs POC quick TAT systems). I think Drs will like the quickness and simplicity of Idylla. One thing I don't recall being discussed in conference calls is whether Idylla meets new guidance for E health record management (ease of retrieval, security, etc.). I certainly would rather see information managed by one service provider rather than a subcontract lab.

FL

quote:

Rarezot schreef op 10 maart 2020 09:25:

[...]

FL,

Thank you very much for your input. Of course the other companies don't do exactly the same as BCART, otherwise BCART would be obsolete... The other companies are more treatment focused, but I mainly chose them because they are Biotech companies in immuno-oncologie about as old as BCART and still on their path to profitability.

What I look for during steep declines is if I think the company might go bankrupt, and I believe BCART is safe for the coming 2-3years without a capital raise if they stay at the same sales numbers as last year (costs will keep decreasing).
I believe that if you are willing to sit out this bear market, and you were able to buy at about 50% (or less) of the valuation you make with bull market numbers, you will most likely make a good profit in the next bull market (and yes people, there will be a next bull market. The world is not ending and if it did, your money would be worthless anyway).

I agree with you that BCART has a lot of intangible assets and it is hard to put a price on that... But I think the current P/B value at 2.37 (P=4, without intangible assets P/B should be really close to 1) is too low especially if you compare that to the other companies, BioNTech is only starting its first-in-human clinical trials this year.
And of course the BCART share price probably will drop even further with corona... That's why I don't say people should rush out and buy shares right now, I only tell them what I think the share should be worth and they use that information however they like.

I have no idea about the E health record management, I'm sorry...

Rarezot

quote:

Alviax schreef op 10 maart 2020 16:02:

Ik begrijp er echt helemaal niks meer van..
hoe kan het nu toch dat Biocartis elke dag opnieuw harder daalt dan de beurs.

Zijn weer een pak gezakt sinds 5 maart, terwijl we die dag openden met een stijging van 9%.
Coronavirus zal zijn invloed wel hebben, maar waarom wordt dit aandeel zoveel harder afgestraft als anderen?
Mij lijkt er dat er instellingen / particulieren meer weten dan dat wij weten..