Belegger.nl

FilipVanderAa 20 april 2020 15:59

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quote:
Stockbrood schreef op 20 april 2020 13:47:
[...]

Wat zou zo'n positieve outlook zijn/inhouden voor jou?

Groeten
Stock

In eerste instantie verdere samenwerkingsakkoorden met grote farmabedrijven. Idealiter volgen ze de Apple aanpak: anderen testen laten ontwikkelen voor hun toestel en waken over de kwaliteit. Als ik de Ceo was, zou ik daar sterk op focussen. Zoals een Takeaway wil dat horecagelegenheden zich bij hen aansluiten, zo moet Biocartis hopen dat farmabedrijven testen ontwikkelen die kunnen draaien op idylla.
Ik denk dat weinigen geïnteresseerd zijn in een labo waar slechts een beperkt aantal testen op draait die bevendien de status research use only hebben. De IPO ligt ondertussen 5 jaar achter ons. Biocartis is toe aan een grote groeispurt. Ik hoop dat ik niet te negatief overkom.
Grtz

RUF RTR 20 april 2020 18:13

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Biocartis moet inderdaad dringend het roer omslaan zoals FilipVanderAa schrijft.
Ze zijn hun krediet aan het verliezen bij de aandeelhouders en kunnen niet steeds een excuus aanhalen zoals nu de coronacrisis.
Sta zelf ook op een groot verlies en wacht nog maximaal tot april volgend jaar. Als er dan geen beduidend beterschap of vooruitzichten zijn, zijn ze allemaal weg.

Flatlander 21 april 2020 15:14

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Ruf and Filip

While I think that building out the assay offerings is one of the keys to broader adoption of Idylla, that comes with a cost. History is showing that it takes at least two years to develop new content and get it to the point of validation studies. There are a finite number of engineers and scientists with an understanding of the Idylla system and the content development process. New content development would tie up finite resources. I support following the consensus of the Key Market Opinion Leaders advisory panel that BCART has confided in. They have stressed configuring the cartridges in a manner that follows international cancer MDx guidelines. Hence the emphasis on introducing the Gene Fusion, and KRAS/NRAS/MSI assays etc. I believe that key is getting these basic MDx tests introduced and registered for full diagnostic use. They are close to filling out the offerings for CRC and Lung cancer (i.e., approximately a year). Breast cancer is in its infancy, A key test like OncoTypeDx would be a nice bridge into this area of oncology since it provides a fast answer to whether a patient will benefit from chemotherapy.

Besides the coronavirus being an impediment to adoption, diagnostic use registrations are the most critical component for success. They are working on this but to the extent possible they need to leverage partner expertise. Again it is hard to get the FDA and other regulatory bodies attention during the Corona crisis.

As the attached UC Davis article indicates, there is tremendous inertia to moving to point of care testing. It is happening, Just much slower than I thought when I got into BCART as an investment. Once these core offerings are in place and approved for diagnostics, I think the inertia fades and the platform becomes more attractive to new content partners. The POC MDx Oncology market is in its earliest phase. It will develop over the next decade. Cepheid shows that POC MDx fills a need that fosters very long term growth (10 or 20 years or more). Since I'm already in this deep, I intend to wait it out for the US, China and Japan diagnostic approval registrations. If the major shift toward profitability is not apparent afterword then I'll need to admit a mistake. Fortunately, the cash situation should be sufficient to get to the point where some of these approvals are ushered in.

resourcecenter.lableaders.com/operati...

I definitively agree that insider share buys would send a strong sign!

FL

Flatlander 21 april 2020 19:20

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This is going to be a interesting call on the 23rd.

In addition to the personnel, the PCR extraction reagents appear to be in critical shortage due to COVID testing demands. I believe that most oncology PCR methods are using many of the same extraction reagents. This has the potential to sideline a lot of the lab testing capacity.

www.genomeweb.com/pcr/addressing-coro...

I'm guessing that the reagent shortage that is described below which is leading to increased use of automated platforms for infectious disease will also extend into oncology. However, it is so early into this pandemic but it will be interesting what trends BCART is seeing in this area.

"Besides the CDC test, his lab has meanwhile also adopted the Roche and Cepheid platforms for SARS-CoV-2 testing, which has helped to alleviate some of the supply constraints. While more and more labs appear to be shifting away from lab-developed tests and towards commercial platforms, Ledeboer said, and manufacturers are ramping up production, "there is still a tremendous need and the vendors can't entirely supply the number of tests that are needed."
Labs that want to adopt the RNA-extraction-free protocol, he said, would need to validate it internally and submit it to the US Food and Drug Administration as a modification to their current Emergency Use Authorization.

FL

[verwijderd] 21 april 2020 20:40

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Ik dacht dat er een shortverbod was tot 18 mei?

shortsell.nl/universes/Belgie

GoedeDag 21 april 2020 22:29

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quote:
Laup 4 schreef op 21 april 2020 20:40:
Ik dacht dat er een shortverbod was tot 18 mei?

shortsell.nl/universes/Belgie

Was maar 1 maand en dat is gedaan.

Flatlander 21 april 2020 22:44

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Based on the current job postings, BCART is now looking to increase the size of the workforce by 10%. Between Belgium and the US, more than 50 positions being advertised. Something beyond what they have previously disclosed has to be driving the hiring. If not, we are in for much faster cash burn than I have been projecting.

be.linkedin.com/jobs/biocartis-jobs?c...

www.google.com/search?q=Biocartis+job...

FL

Flatlander 21 april 2020 22:53

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Most of the job openings have been posted since mid March. My guess is that the pandemic is constraining other conventional MDx testing (either due to lack of qualified lab personnel, lack of reagents, or both). This may be creating additional demand for Idylla. This is the optimistic guess. Anyone out there have other hypotheses for all of the recent job postings?

FL

Flatlander 22 april 2020 01:27

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I guess another explanation is that these are not all new positions but rather replacements for employees that do not wish to work during the pandemic. I think this is a legitimate question for the conference call on the 23rd.

FL

Stockbrood 22 april 2020 07:29

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quote:
GoedeDag schreef op 21 april 2020 22:29:
[...]

Was maar 1 maand en dat is gedaan.

Nee hoor. Die periode werd verlengd tot 18 mei. Graag eerst onderzoeken vooraleer je een misleidende post plaatst.

www.fsma.be/en/news/renewal-prohibiti...

Er zijn blijkbaar enkele uitzonderingsregels, zie onderaan press release

Groeten
Stock

GoedeDag 22 april 2020 11:13

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quote:
Flatlander schreef op 22 april 2020 01:27:
I guess another explanation is that these are not all new positions but rather replacements for employees that do not wish to work during the pandemic. I think this is a legitimate question for the conference call on the 23rd.

FL

Seems unlikely, posting job positions in the middle of pandemic is bound to take much longer to fill and then only to replace people who don't wish to work during a pandemic?

The process to hire and get someone up to speed takes much too long to just temporarily replace people like that.

Also people here are allowed to work during the quarantine if you can maintain social distance and hiring 40 extra people won't allow them to do that in those offices in my opinion.

Flatlander 22 april 2020 14:32

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Good Day

I agree that it would be very questionable timing to bring so many new employees on during the midst of a pandemic. And I certainly agree that replacing existing employees that might not want to work in close proximity to others during a pandemic does not make sense since it takes so long for a new/replacement worker to come up to speed. Those are the people that are encouraged to work at home.

So I'm left with my 1st hypothesis (the pandemic is resulting in additional demand for Idylla) as being the most likely reason for trying to hire so many during the pandemic. If CLIA labs are short of reagents and qualified technicians, moving the testing closer to the point of care may make a lot of sense. Tomorrow's discussion of new orders (within last 2 months) of consoles and cartridges is going to be interesting. Sometimes strange outside factors can accelerate changes.

Regards FL

[verwijderd] 22 april 2020 20:29

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Citadel Europe heeft haar shortpositie kunnen afsluiten op 2,75 euro, maar ze doen het niet, integendeel. Denken ze dat de koers nog lager gaat?

shortsell.nl/universes/Belgie

Wittman 22 april 2020 22:44

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quote:
Laup 4 schreef op 22 april 2020 20:29:
Citadel Europe heeft haar shortpositie kunnen afsluiten op 2,75 euro, maar ze doen het niet, integendeel. Denken ze dat de koers nog lager gaat?

shortsell.nl/universes/Belgie

Tja, dat is dan de mening van één shortpartij. Tienduizenden beleggers zien het niet zo negatief in. Shorters weten heus niet meer dan de markt, en het feit dat zij nog de enige shortpartij zijn in Biocartis stemt ook tot nadenken.

Flatlander 22 april 2020 23:19

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I still maintain that the Citadel short position may be a continuation of the convertible arbitrage strategy. This means that Citadel is hedging their long position via the convertible bond with a short position against the equity. Thus far it has been a winning strategy. They have collected the coupon payments on the convertible bond and on paper they have made money on the short position since the equity is much cheaper than in May of 2019 when the convertible was announced.

The interesting thing will be the timing of when they close the short position. If it is an arbitrage, I don't think they will continue shorting until they are out of the bond position.

FL

Flatlander 23 april 2020 00:21

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From what I been reading some critical enzymes are in short supply due to all of the COVID 19 PCR lab assays being run around the world. Several governors in the US have indicated the shortage of enzymes (primarily DNA polymerase) are limiting the ability to ramp up COVID testing in the US. Promega is a major competing analysis for MSI and is probably the most frequently utilized method for MSI analyses. The Promega MSI assay uses polymerase reagents and may be experiencing similar shortages at various labs throughout the world. That said, polymerase is one of the reagents used in Idylla's cartridges. So I don't know how long BCART can maintain production of their MSI cartridges if their reagent supply gets depleted.

Hopefully there will be some discussion of reagent supplies tomorrow.

FL

CGCDLR 23 april 2020 07:15

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Nieuwe CFO.Ontwikkeling corona test(goedkeuring tegen FDA 2°jaarhelft)!1ste helft 2020 wordt bar,maar ze hopen alles recht te zetten in jaarhelft 2!

Phoene 23 april 2020 07:31

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Belangrijkste boodschappen
? Commercieel cartridgevolume: Jaar-op-jaar Q1-groei van 68% van commerciële cartridgevolume, wat het groeipotentieel aantoont binnen een goed gevestigd klantenbestand in alle regio’s. Europa blijft de grootste bijdrage leveren met zeer sterke prestaties op Noord-, Centraal- en West-Europese markten, gedeeltelijk gestimuleerd door proactieve stockbestellingen in het kader van de COVID-19 pandemie.
? Installed base: Langzamer dan verwachte uitbreiding van de installed base in alle markten in Q1 2020 als gevolg van de wereldwijde COVID-19 pandemie, met grootste impact op Zuid-Europese, VS en RoW1
-markten.
? Partnerschappen: Succesvolle partnerschapsuitbreidingen in oncologie met AstraZeneca, met een studie inzake vloeibare biopsie testing met de Idylla ™ ctEGFR Mutation Assay (RUO2
), en met Bristol Myers Squibb
Company (BMS), met een nieuw project gericht op het nastreven van de registratie van de Idylla™ MSI test als een ‘companion diagnostic3
’ (CDx) test in uitgezaaide colorectale (darm)kanker in China, evenals een succesvolle
uitbreiding van de partnerschappen in infectieziekten met Immunexpress Pty Ltd ('Immunexpress') voor de co-commercialisering in Europa van de SeptiCyte® RAPID Test op Idylla™, die onlangs CE-markering kreeg.
? Testmenu: Ontwikkeling van de Idylla™ SARS-CoV-2 test, het virus dat COVID-19 veroorzaakt, voor snelle en eenvoudige testing van individuen met griepachtige symptomen. Wanneer gebruikt in combinatie met de recent CE-gemarkeerde IVD SeptiCyte® RAPID Test4 op Idylla™, heeft deze testoplossing het unieke potentieel om patiënten te identificeren die ernstig ziek zijn, gezien recente data5 aantoont dat sepsis de meest frequent geziene complicatie is bij COVID-196.
? Benoeming nieuwe CFO: Biocartis kondigt de benoeming aan van Jean-Marc Roelandt als de nieuwe Chief Financial Officer (‘CFO’) van de Vennootschap met onmiddellijke ingang. Jean-Marc Roelandt is een senior executive met een bewezen trackrecord van meer dan 25 jaar als CFO in wereldwijd actieve beursgenoteerde bedrijven. Voordat hij bij Biocartis kwam, was hij CFO van MDxHealth.
? Kaspositie: De kaspositie van Biocartis eind Q1 2020 bedroeg 170,1 miljoen EUR (niet-geauditeerd cijfer).

Tryck 23 april 2020 07:52

1

De nieuwe CFO is geruststellend.

Hopelijk gaan we onze broek niet scheuren aan die Covid-19 test, maar als dit goed gaat zou het een katalysator kunnen zijn om Biocartis wereldwijd op de kaart te zetten en de stagnerende groei omwille van de lockdown terug op te krikken.

joe123 23 april 2020 08:00

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Ik heb er steeds op gehamerd wanneer men al die nieuwe mensen heeft aangenomen dat daar wel degelijk een goede reden voor is.Dit blijkt nu bij de grote volumestijging.

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