Flatlander schreef op 22 maart 2021 15:34:
As I wrote about a month ago, the release of Gene Fusion in the first quarter has been known for months, This has created a situation where short term traders sell into the pop. The bigger picture is that BCART is filling out the lung offering and becoming more attractive as an MDx platform. However, the process is slow and will play out over many years if not decades (ala Cepheid), For that reason the short term churn crowd will sell into the well anticipated news.
For the long term crowd the path is arduous but clear. Idylla is must keep rolling out new assays to build the content library but equally important gain the IVD full diagnostic use authorizations. No single competitor controls the oncology MDx market, so the winners and losers are yet to be defined. NGS has attractive advantages in that a number of pathways and mutations can be recognized from a single sequencing. However, the NGS strength comes at considerable cost. Will insurers/payers be willing to reimburse NGS for routine surveillance or resistance monitoring to see if a cancer is mutating around the current treatment? I think this surveillance usage will be the sweet spot for Idylla.in that it is cheaper, faster etc. I chose BCART as a speculation because there are dozens of firms offering NGS testing specialties but very few competitors are trying to disintermediate by on demand testing that is faster, cheaper, less labor intensive and easier to interpret.
The attached website gives some perspective as to the number of targeted treatments and the specific mechanisms. The number of recognized targets increase every year, hence the estimate that the overall size of the market grows 20% per year. The attached discussion also provide some insights into the process of developing a targeted therapy. It would be interesting to learn how many Idylla uniits have been placed a pharma and biopharma companies. I've estimated that the RUO market is only about 1/10th the size of the total MDx market. However, given the intensity of the MDx testing demands it is clear the RUO is not an insignificant market.
Long Story Short if you are waiting for a SP rise for a chance to break even and exit BCART you could be missing a secular trend that that has just been slower to materialize than everyone first thought. I intend to focus on market share in oncology MDx and whether the company is able to establish a sustainable pathway to profitability. BCART has positioned itself to benefit tremendously by launching worldwide and building out manufacturing capacity, but this has been costly. As I said before the company has the potential to be a 10X or more bagger, but if it makes too many missteps and it could flame out and be acquired for peanuts. Hence the Risk/Reward ratio is very high. I'm concerned by the missteps, but believe the potential warrants more time.www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/treatment...