Biocartis forum geopend

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CGCDLR
1
Ze hebben 2 productie lijnen voor cartridges.De " oude" produceert 200000 cartridges /jaar.De nieuwe 1 miljoen.Wanneer ze nu in 3 ploegen draaien dan weten we wat hun max productie is.Of ze die halen, weten we niet.Er zullen hopelijk geen aanwervingen zijn wanneer het niet nodig is.
Flatlander
1
CGCDLR
Your thoughts are similar to mine. 3 shifts, 6 days a week would appear to be pretty close to fully staffed. Of course, I don/t know if there is any social distancing being practiced, Also, time is required for training new personnel. The big question becomes are they increasing production for current demand or building inventory in anticipation of some launch (MSI in the US, China or Japan registration,....). The cartridge's have a 12 month shelf life. If they are building inventory we have to assume they will be sold in the next few months.

FL
CGCDLR
1

FL,2020 H2,150000 Cartridges a 133 €/p
2021 H1 195000 Cartridges a133€/p(min) =26000000€.(minimale groei aantal & prijs/cartridge.) +30%
2021 H1 240000 Cartridges a 133€/p(min)=32000000,€(groei cartridges 60,,%, prijs/Cartridge gelijk).
Is Biocartis met die 32 milj over HJ 1 2021 niet ongeveer break even ?
Ook wanneer er bijkomende consoles, licentieinkomsten, hogere prijs Cartridges in rekening genomen worden.Stel dat HJ 2 een omzet van 52 miljoen draait.( Terug + 60 % ivm HJ 1 2021).
Groeten ,??
Flatlander
2
CGCDLR - Total operating costs in 2020 were 102.4€, Under the best scenario, I see total operating income of 80-85 million €, The cost of servicing the convertible, the multiple registrations and headcount increases will likely result in operating costs that are similar (under the scenario that they will not have the premature retirement of convertible shares as they did in 2020) or slight increase in operating costs (still assuming limited sales and marketing travel). They will not have the benefit of the contract termination (Genomic Health) cash infusion. I think break even occurs about a year after the multiple registrations (US, China and Japan). The registrations will enable BCART to leverage the partnerships. Currently, BCART bears the cost for new product R&D. After the IVD registration approvals they will be able to fully leverage the sales forces of ImmunExpress, Nichirae, Wondfo, BMY and AZN, This should mark a major inflection point in revenue generation. So I'm in the 2023 Breakeven Camp, with a greater revenue growth trajectory thereafter. The market is forward looking so I believe the SP will respond as the news flow begins to change later this year and into 2022.

Your ave cost per cartridge at 133€ is considerably higher than the 102€ discussed in the 2020 year end presentation. I believe it reflects the change in the geographic balance with a tilt toward more SARS COVID2 test sales in the US (this started to occur late in 2020). BCART will need more US approvals (MSI, Septicyte Rapid) to maintain the favorable ave cost as the overall COVID infection rates in the US have decreased (with some geographic exceptions in the South). It is still somewhat hard to justify 3 shifts, 6 days a week. BCART is likely ramping for training and in anticipation of building inventory into the end of the year.

Regards FL

FL
CGCDLR
1
En wéér,slaat het orderboek tilt tijdens laatste veiling! 467000 in de aankoop op 3,85 (5 orders)! Iemand een idee wat de achterliggende reden is? Vandaag een omzet van +/- 42500 aandelen.Een conclusie,onder de 3,85 : kopen.
Bonsjoer
1
En vandaag weer.. .., 441.000 stuks in de bied slotveiling.., op 3.90... erg vreemd deze dagelijkse terugkeer in de slotveiling..
CGCDLR
1
Flatlander
1
BCART remains in a descending trend although the short term price action the last week has brought the SP to the top of the range. It could use some news (Septicyte, Combination winter virus panel, MSI in US, Gene fusion IVD approval in EU, etc.) in the near term to break out of the descending medium term trend.

I think BCART is getting closer to a Nasdaq listing. The story would be received favorably and the growth trajectory and upcoming news flow (next 12 months) would create interest, I think BCART could use the listing to boost its visibility and raise cash. Although, I listened to a podcast on how Amazon deliberately obscured the growth in AWS segment because they didn't want the competition to realize how fast they were growing market share in this important space. I believe BCART does the same by limiting geographic and product specific sales information.

FL
Stefzele1
1
De koers blijft in één opwaartse trend zitten, vrijdagnamiddag werden er 400.000 stuks aan de bidzijde tegen €4 het stuk geplaatst…
Flatlander
1
Kiril Sokolov's interview of Cathie Wood of Arkk had a couple very interesting take away's for tech and genomics investors.

"With each doubling of product output there is a fixed percentage reduction in costs. For genomic products the cost reduction ranges from about 28% (long read sequencing) to 40% (short read). For Robotics the fixed cost reduction is around 25%."

"In many cases the pandemic has accelerated the path to profitability by 3 to 5 years"

If BCART can replicate this reduction in the cost of goods sold while sales and marketing costs are greatly limited by the travel restrictions due to the pandemic, we should see more improvement in margins and a probable shortening in the time to achieve break even.

I'd provide a link but the Real Vision platform has a paywall.

Lets hope we see evidence of this on Sept 2!
FL
Flatlander
0
Sorry Stefzele1 I don't see it. If you look at the 50 day MA on a 1 or 2 year chart, it is still trending down. I think it will take a close above the July 2 high of 4.135 before a change in the trend can be comfortably called.

So if Cathie wood is Correct about the application of Wright's Law to genomic companies such as Biocartis, we should see the ave cost of producing a cartridge dip into the mid 90's by year end, assuming that they meet the upper range of guidance (say more than 350,000 cartridges).

Another one of Wood's observations is that it is common for a disruptive technology company to muddle around for years before acheiving the production scale that enables them to make the leap to disrupting and dominating their industry.

FL

Flatlander
0
Stefzele1

I'll admit I'm not a technician. I tend to follow fundamentals more, So more credit to you if you can accurately call a trend reversal based on the limited evidence. The move up on strong volume today is clearly encouraging regardless of whatever indicators you follow.

Regards FL
OzDx
0
Hi FL, you've mentioned potential cross listing on the Nasdaq. Has the management talked about this possibility in the past? TIA
Stefzele1
0
@Flatlander, today à lot of shares are sold at €4 and the buyer put everytime more shares to buy at €4…maybe to the results on 02/09…w’ll see…
Flatlander
0
About 2 years ago, they responded that the time was not right, yet. I see three conditions that might have changed that stance:

1st margins and volumes are improving where run to profitability is not as long of a stretch.

2nd They are close to their 2nd IVD approval (the 1st RSV is no longer actively marketed due to market considerations);

3rd - they are getting close to registration in China and Japan. This will make Idylla truly a worldwide platform. Few MDx companies on the NASDAQ can make similar claims.

I think the timing is better now and it would allow the raising of cash with less dilution (yes I think a higher offer price would be possible) while gaining exposure/visibility. From what I can tell I don't think the NASDAQ listing requirements would be that burdensome relative to the Brussels/EU requirements. The window for this is probably toward year end.

FL
Flatlander
0
quote:

Stefzele1 schreef op 27 juli 2021 15:54:


@Flatlander, or maybe à takeover…?


Verrelst is on record as saying that he did not become CEO to preside over such a takeover. However, everything has its price and he has to answer to shareholders. Although the the shares are spread such that it will take more than a couple major shareholders to pull this off. I think there will be an offer in the next couple years but it will occur after the visibility increases.

FL
Flatlander
1
Oz

The attached Board Report (specifically the last set of bullet points) regarding the recently approved increase in share capital is one of the main reasons that I believe that a listing on the NASDAQ is imminent in the 4th Q 2021 to Q1 2022 period. In my mind the increase in visibility would easily offset the dilution. I would suspect that the optimal time would be January, if they can show they delivered on the upper end of guidance and provide a positive update on the IVD registrations in China and Japan.

Regards FL

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Vertraagd 24 sep 2021 17:35
Koers 3,880
Verschil -0,015 (-0,39%)
Hoog 3,935
Laag 3,855
Volume 70.447
Volume gemiddeld 60.715
Volume gisteren 111.212