Biocartis forum geopend

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DeZwarteRidder
0
quote:

DeZwarteRidder schreef op 13 juni 2019 20:22:


[...]
De koers gaat met gemak onder de 10.

,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Flatlander
0
Another glowing review of Idylla performance.
www.scitechnol.com/peer-review/biocar...

Given the author list, it may also suggest that the Chinese are close to or have already completed validation of the platform. Again, until I hear differently, I think the convertible cash raise is being used to construct another cartridge manufacturing line in China. The Wonfu press release last September said the joint venture would include a Chinese manufacturing plant.

FL
Cbo
0
Zit eraan te denken om wat aandelen biocartis te kopen.
Voor wat betreft afzet verwacht ik wel flinke groei.
Mijn punt van twijfel is de daadwerkelijke omzet. Deze vind ik aan de lage kant. MdxHealth had en heeft altijd veel problemen gehad bij het daadwerkelijk declareren van hun testen bij de verzekeraars. Weet iemand of dit ook het geval kan zijn bij Biocartis of is hun verdienmodel net wat anders?
DeZwarteRidder
0
quote:

Cbo schreef op 18 augustus 2019 10:26:


Zit eraan te denken om wat aandelen biocartis te kopen.
Voor wat betreft afzet verwacht ik wel flinke groei.
Mijn punt van twijfel is de daadwerkelijke omzet. Deze vind ik aan de lage kant. MdxHealth had en heeft altijd veel problemen gehad bij het daadwerkelijk declareren van hun testen bij de verzekeraars. Weet iemand of dit ook het geval kan zijn bij Biocartis of is hun verdienmodel net wat anders?

Biocartis werkt met een 'verliesmodel': omzet ca 30 miljoen en verlies ca 50 miljoen.
Cbo
0
Ja dat weet is wel maar is hun verdienmodel vergelijkbaar met mxxhealth of net wat anders. Met andere woorden: is de vergoeding van de cartridges bij verzekekeraars ook zo’n moeilijk traject. Als ik kijk naar de omzet van biocartis dan lijkt dit er wel op in vergelijking tot het aantal verkochte cartridges.
Maar is weet niet of deze conclusie juist is.
Flatlander
0
In the U.S. Idylla is designated "research Use Only" by the FDA. this means it cannot be used for clinical diagnostic purposes, As such it is not currently eligible for reimbursement from insurers or medicare. BCART has indicated that they will file for 510K pathway approval for diagnostic use in 2020.

How does it work in Europe? it appears to me that once EU marking is received the test still needs insurance approvals on a country by country basis. GXDX's Onco Dx Breast cancer test received a favorable ruling from Germany. Will this be applicable to the IVD test once the Idylla system receives EU marking?

Cbo
0
Revenue 2018 is 28,7 mio.
Volume 133.000 cartridges for 2018.
Market cap 536 mio.
Revenue has to grow to 100 or 200 mio within 2 years.
Do you think they can realise this?
RUF RTR
0
quote:

Cbo schreef op 18 augustus 2019 10:26:


Zit eraan te denken om wat aandelen biocartis te kopen.
Voor wat betreft afzet verwacht ik wel flinke groei.
Mijn punt van twijfel is de daadwerkelijke omzet. Deze vind ik aan de lage kant. MdxHealth had en heeft altijd veel problemen gehad bij het daadwerkelijk declareren van hun testen bij de verzekeraars. Weet iemand of dit ook het geval kan zijn bij Biocartis of is hun verdienmodel net wat anders?


Denk persoonlijk dat het nu een mooi instapmoment is, het risico is veel kleiner geworden dan een paar jaar geleden.
Nieuwe CEO is zeer ambitieus en wil zo snel mogelijk marktaandeel uitbreiden.
Biocartis heeft nu ook veel cash dus dat zit goed.
Verlies zal waarschijnlijk groot zijn maar als de groei er is is dat minder belangrijk.
Er is ook nog steeds de kans op een overname, wordt bijna nooit vermeld maar het is een sector waar schaalgrootte essentieel is, zowel Roche Diagnostics, Qiagen als Thermo Fischer Scientific kunnen Biocartis overnemen.
Flatlander
0
Takeovers are typically rare when a company is as cash flow negative as BCART. I agree that BCARTs scale (market cap less than 600M) is a challenge. However, between the distribution agreements and partnerships they are taking the steps to leverage their relationships to increase the market presence. Amgen, Bristol Myers, Merk KGBa, Astra Zeneca will presumably be marketing Idylla if it means that they have an advantage accessing the physician prescription window before a competitor reliant on a slower NGS based companion diagnostic test. similarly the Genomic Health personnel will be pushing Idylla since it avoids the friction point( they have discussed in their conference calls) of sending tissue samples out of the country.

FL
DeZwarteRidder
0
quote:

Cbo schreef op 18 augustus 2019 16:15:


Revenue 2018 is 28,7 mio.
Volume 133.000 cartridges for 2018.
Market cap 536 mio.
Revenue has to grow to 100 or 200 mio within 2 years.
Do you think they can realise this?

Nee.
RUF RTR
0
quote:

Cbo schreef op 18 augustus 2019 16:15:


Revenue 2018 is 28,7 mio.
Volume 133.000 cartridges for 2018.
Market cap 536 mio.
Revenue has to grow to 100 or 200 mio within 2 years.
Do you think they can realise this?


Onwaarschijnlijk maar dat de groei exponentieel zal toenemen staat vast.
Zeg nooit nooit in Biotech
Flatlander
0
I do see an inflection point in the growth trajectory in 2020.. I believe the growth will increase for the following reasons:

Onco Dx Breast cancer test is the equivalent of a killer Ap. It has substantial documentation as being the only test to determine whether a woman with Breast cancer will benefit from chemotherapy. this test should start launching on Idylla in the EU in mid 2020. A similar inflection point occurred for GHDX when the TailorX study was released.

BCART has started initial negotiations w the FDA to receive approval for idylla in diagnostic use. with the help of partners (primarily Amgen and BMS) this approval can occur in 2020 and would open the door for insurance reimbursement and broader usage in the US. S second phase of growth will occur when small hospitals and clinics realize that they can price the test very profitably.

The china agreement with Wonfu occurred about a year ago. They have had time to work with regulators to validate the platform. I suspect in the next couple months that we will hear about a Chinese manufacturing facility and the strategy to ramp up sales in China. This growth in the largest market in the world will occur on a zero base.

Similarly, a Japan update should provide more information on sales expansion in that market.

If my inflection point assumptions are correct, I believe BCART could hit break even during late 2020 or early 2021.

FL

DeZwarteRidder
0
quote:

Flatlander schreef op 19 augustus 2019 23:02:


I do see an inflection point in the growth trajectory in 2020.. I believe the growth will increase for the following reasons:

Onco Dx Breast cancer test is the equivalent of a killer Ap. It has substantial documentation as being the only test to determine whether a woman with Breast cancer will benefit from chemotherapy. this test should start launching on Idylla in the EU in mid 2020. A similar inflection point occurred for GHDX when the TailorX study was released.

BCART has started initial negotiations w the FDA to receive approval for idylla in diagnostic use. with the help of partners (primarily Amgen and BMS) this approval can occur in 2020 and would open the door for insurance reimbursement and broader usage in the US. S second phase of growth will occur when small hospitals and clinics realize that they can price the test very profitably.

The china agreement with Wonfu occurred about a year ago. They have had time to work with regulators to validate the platform. I suspect in the next couple months that we will hear about a Chinese manufacturing facility and the strategy to ramp up sales in China. This growth in the largest market in the world will occur on a zero base.

Similarly, a Japan update should provide more information on sales expansion in that market.

If my inflection point assumptions are correct, I believe BCART could hit break even during late 2020 or early 2021.
FL

Je denkt toch hopelijk niet serieus dat ze ooit in China geld gaan verdienen....???
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