brightlight schreef op 1 februari 2020 16:32:
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Hans90,
let me address your points one by one:
Concerning revenue growth:
Revenue at Biocartis is expected to grow in 6 years from 12M Euro (2016) to 174M Euro (2022), so 14 times 2016 revenue (Cepheid came in at 17 times, so not that much difference).
Concerning the loss making:
1. It is useless to compare loss figures of companies in different stages of their development. Cepheid’s growth acceleration has already happened, Bcart’s still has to begin.
2. You shouldn’t compare absolute loss figures, but relative loss figures.
3. Every company is different in the way they approach their business model. One company may have better metrics than the other concerning certain aspects of their business model, That does not mean they can’t both be successful and be fabulous growth stories in their own way. But as I said in point 1, Bcart and Cepheid are at a different stage of their development so it is pointless to compare the two at this moment in time.
Concerning gross margins:
Hans, you really should read the posts that are out there. I already pointed out that your gross margin figures are wrong. Flatlander did so too. Here are the correct figures: 2019: 43.96%est; 2018:44.81%; 2017: 58.62%; 2016: 52.88%; So they are perfectly in line with the Cepheid margins.
Concerning the growth drivers for the foreseeable future:
Growth drivers for Bcart are: Entry in the Japanese and Chinese markets; Full approval for the U.S. market; Continued growth in Europe and the rest of the world; 11 new tests in the pipeline; higher margins due to higher sales prices when more products are sold (supply demand balance shifting); more cost efficiencies due to better production line utilization. Probably Flatlander can add some more.
Concerning cash burn:
Nobody said cash burn would be lower in 2020-2021. Maybe it will, maybe it won’t. As I already said before, cash burn is an inherent part of investing in biotech. Bcart is no different. It is something you have to accept as a biotech investor. You get a better company in return (besides no new cash is needed in approximately the next two years, that really is a luxury as a biotech investor!). Amazon had the same business model (loss making from 1995 till 2002 and even some years after that). Nobody is complaining now after the stock went up roughly 20 times in 10 years. Sometimes you need a little bit of VISION as an investor. That is something which is distinctly missing on this forum.
It seems to me there is a concerted effort on this forum to bring the share price down. I don’t know who benefits, but frankly, I am getting a bit tired of having to address all the skepticism and correct the constant stream of misinformation. I think I'll just let the ignorance run its course.
BL
P.S. Nat, je mag dit vertalen.