Biocartis forum geopend

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nat1966 schreef op 2 februari 2020 12:48:


05-03
Jaarresultaat 2019 Biocartis NV
allee heb je een beeetje gelukkiger gemaakt denk ik toch


Nee, niet echt want dit wist ik al heel lang. Doe dan maar liever een stukje van die taart ;-)
natje 1966
0
"Genomic Health, voorafgaand aan de aankoop, in een samenwerking met de Belgische gevestigde Biocartis om de tests die moeten worden uitgevoerd met behulp van Biocartis' systeem ingevoerd Exact. Dit maakt het mogelijk een lokaal laboratorium of ziekenhuis om de Oncotype DX test met de Biocartis monster cartridge en analysator draaien . Belangrijk is dat deze kan testresultaten binnen enkele uren in plaats van dagen als het monster moet worden verzonden naar een gespecialiseerd laboratorium mogelijk te maken. op de lange termijn zou dit een productieve weg voor Exact om meer diagnostiek trechter naarmate ze goedgekeurd zijn."

"Extra overnames, zoals Genomic Health, aan een uitgebreide portfolio van de proeven kan ook in de kaarten te bieden. Als alternatief zou een aankoop van een bedrijf als Biocartis verschuiving van het testen van een centraal laboratorium diensten naar het lokale niveau."

Lees meer op: beursig.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&a... voor meer informatie
natje 1966
0
Volgens mij is dit nog steeds het gevolg van de afbouw van een fonds, telkens er 20k of meer in de bied komt is deze telkens in één klap weg. Het maakt hen blijkbaar niet uit aan welke prijs, 6.5 of 5.5 geeft geen verschil. Er worden er gewoon dagelijks een x aantal verkocht, wanneer ze uitverkocht zijn...?

Het shortpercentage staat op 3.96%:
Voleon Capital heeft op 24 januari licht uitgebreid van 0.54% naar 0.61%.
Highbridge capital heeft op 22 januari afgebouwd van 0.97% naar 0.82%
citadel Europe staat al een hele tijd stabiel op 2.53%

Alles onder 0.5% moet niet gemeld worden maar dan nog denk ik niet dat het enkel shorters zijn

Lees meer op: beursig.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=4&a... voor meer informatie
natje 1966
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kijken of dit alles mag uitkomen ( zie hier onder ) .


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Schermvullende weergave


Herman Verrelst: 'Studies tonen aan dat ons minilabo Idylla sneller en accurater is dan concurrerende tests.' ©Wim Kempenaers
Serge Mampaey
23 mei 2019 17:18
Het Mechelse diagnosticabedrijf Biocartis heeft dit jaar al 200 miljoen euro opgehaald en kan daardoor een versnelling hoger schakelen. Dat moet toelaten om binnen 2 à 3 jaar winst te maken.
Herman Verrelst, de topman van Biocartis BCART-0,87% , heeft het kapitaal en de ambities om zijn bedrijf naar een volgend niveau te tillen. Nu nog voldoende klanten overtuigen. Tijdens onze twaalfde CEO Talks antwoordde Verrelst op de vragen van Tijd-lezers.
Wat doet Biocartis precies?
Herman Verrelst: ‘Biocartis is actief in moleculaire diagnostiek. Ons minilabo Idylla kan heel snel en accuraat DNA-mutaties in kaart brengen. Wij passen dat toe in de kankerdiagnose. We helpen oncologen de juiste therapieën te selecteren voor hun patiënten. De tests gebeuren door cartridges (een soort plastic cassette, red.) met wat bloed of weefsel in het Idylla-systeem te stoppen.’
natje 1966
0
nog een eind te gaan zou ik zeggen ( zie hier onder )
Hoe groot schat u die markt in?
Verrelst: ‘Als we onze volle ambities willen realiseren, spreken we over een markt van 2 à 3 miljard euro. In dat veld willen we een leidende speler worden.’
Wanneer denkt u winst te maken?
Verrelst: ‘In de eerste plaats moeten we de volumes optrekken, meer cartridges verkopen dus. Dankzij hogere volumes vergroot de winstgevendheid van het product vanzelf, omdat we dan van schaalgrootte profiteren in onze fabriek in Mechelen. De groei is nodig om winstgevend te worden. Dat zal nog 2 à 3 jaar duren.’
natje 1966
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dus logischer wijze kan er niet veel gebeuren met de koers zie hier boven als er geen winst gemaakt wordt en dit zal zeker nog 3 jaar duren zal de koers blijven steken tussen de 5 en 6 met een beetje meeval
kweet dan echt niet waar de analisten die koersen blijven halen, of kijken ze 2 a 3 jaar voorruit
Stockbrood
0
Op het moment dat er winst gemaakt wordt, dan zal je geen BCART meer kunnen kopen aan 5.50, al mag je daar gerust op wachten :)
Tuurlijk gaat een koers over wat de toekomst brengt. Een koersdoel gaat sowieso trouwens over een scope van 12 maanden. De vooropgestelde koersdoelen lijken mij correct, op basis van de door analysten gemaakte schattingen. Het is aan een belegger om te zien of hij de analysten volgt in hun denkwijze/berekeningen/schattingen

Denk dus niet dat (mild) positief nieuws in maart de koers naar het consensus koersoel zal optrekken... Dat is een scope van één maand, geen twaalf.

Stock
Flatlander
0
quote:

Hans90 schreef op 1 februari 2020 09:37:


Hi Flatlander,

I see you often refer to Cepheid as a succes story for MDx. I had a quick look at their early days and do see some differences with Biocartis:
- Cepheid was able to grow from 5 to 85 M$ in 6 years (2000-2005), Biocartis is currently on a slower growth trajectory
- Cepheid made an average loss of 15 M$/year (2000-2005), the average loss for Biocartis is around 50 M$/year, hence Biocartis needs more cash to grow
- Cepheid had a gross margin of 40-50% when they hit 20 M$ revenue and was able to sustain this margin, gross margin for Biocartis is currently below 20%, I see this as one of the biggest risks as it is a strong contributer to the high cash burn, I'm reluctant to belief that the new production line alone will get gross margin above 40%
- Cepheid had a major revenue growth from 18 M$ in 2003 to 53 M$ in 2004, do you know the underlying reason, something similar in the pipeline for Biocartis? I'm again a bit reluctant to belief that FDA approval alone will result in this type of stepchange for Biocartis, any thoughts on quantifying the impact of FDA approval?

I strongly belief in the MDx market and see the added value of Biocartis. I'm however still a bit skeptical about their ability to lower cash burn significantly in 2020-2021.


Hi Hans
I went back and reviewed Cepheiid's performance during the period you discuss. The system GeneXpert system that I consider roughly analogous to Idylla did not launch until 2005. Before that they had a anthrax test that sold 8 million units in a few years based on the anthrax mail scare in the U.S. Apparently, the military filled large orders on fear of a biologic attack. Ebola sales also ramped slightly later. One huge difference between the two companies is that rapid infectious disease tests do not appear to languish with a RUO for as long a time as oncology related MDx assays. As we see with the current corona virus, infectious diseases are considered a health care emergency. These emergencies lead to rapid approval of diagnostic tests. Because incubation periods for viruses are often short, PCR tests are one of the few solutions that provide timely results.

This is all important because in my estimation, the research market probably represents less than 5% of the overall oncology IVD market. Because much of the efforts in the US are now based on placing units to get the user community to publish their experiences, I don't think the margins represent the long term potential of the platform. Rather their are inducements being given to garner the testimonials that lead to future growth. In my opinion, the money is definitely in first line diagnostic market. Cepheid was able to crack into that market much quicker because of the emphasis on infectious disease. Again, it would be great if BCART would break out the sales numbers geographically. Several assays have full EU marking for diagnostic use and BCART indicates that consoles are being deployed in front line diagnostic applications at a pace ahead of there projections. I'm not sure how this translates into margins.

Cepheid also had the benefit of launching out of the US, where healthcare reimbursement costs are much higher than the ROW. I would suspect that BCARTs European margins are likely lower due to lower reimbursement rates in the EU, The positive side of that is that a huge tailwind is likely to occur with full diagnostic approval unlocks the ability to exploit the POC market. However, as I pointed out recently, the release of proprietary content of our partners GHDX and ImmunExpress will likely result in accelerated console deployment but lower margins as these assays garner royalties rather than the profit margins built into the proprietary assay content. While I'm very optimistic about these new assays, I think we need to temper expectations since we do not know the royalty specifics. In the pharmaceutical industry high single digit to low double digit royalties are the norm. I'm not sure if that is the case here. Seems like a premium is justified given the amount of technology that is required.

So in answer to your question I don't think you can compare margins until BCART can sell into the POC markets in the US and the larger Asian markets.

FL
Flatlander
0
quote:

brightlight schreef op 1 februari 2020 16:32:


[...]
Hans90,
let me address your points one by one:

Concerning revenue growth:
Revenue at Biocartis is expected to grow in 6 years from 12M Euro (2016) to 174M Euro (2022), so 14 times 2016 revenue (Cepheid came in at 17 times, so not that much difference).

Concerning the loss making:
1. It is useless to compare loss figures of companies in different stages of their development. Cepheid’s growth acceleration has already happened, Bcart’s still has to begin.
2. You shouldn’t compare absolute loss figures, but relative loss figures.
3. Every company is different in the way they approach their business model. One company may have better metrics than the other concerning certain aspects of their business model, That does not mean they can’t both be successful and be fabulous growth stories in their own way. But as I said in point 1, Bcart and Cepheid are at a different stage of their development so it is pointless to compare the two at this moment in time.

Concerning gross margins:
Hans, you really should read the posts that are out there. I already pointed out that your gross margin figures are wrong. Flatlander did so too. Here are the correct figures: 2019: 43.96%est; 2018:44.81%; 2017: 58.62%; 2016: 52.88%; So they are perfectly in line with the Cepheid margins.

Concerning the growth drivers for the foreseeable future:
Growth drivers for Bcart are: Entry in the Japanese and Chinese markets; Full approval for the U.S. market; Continued growth in Europe and the rest of the world; 11 new tests in the pipeline; higher margins due to higher sales prices when more products are sold (supply demand balance shifting); more cost efficiencies due to better production line utilization. Probably Flatlander can add some more.

Concerning cash burn:
Nobody said cash burn would be lower in 2020-2021. Maybe it will, maybe it won’t. As I already said before, cash burn is an inherent part of investing in biotech. Bcart is no different. It is something you have to accept as a biotech investor. You get a better company in return (besides no new cash is needed in approximately the next two years, that really is a luxury as a biotech investor!). Amazon had the same business model (loss making from 1995 till 2002 and even some years after that). Nobody is complaining now after the stock went up roughly 20 times in 10 years. Sometimes you need a little bit of VISION as an investor. That is something which is distinctly missing on this forum.

It seems to me there is a concerted effort on this forum to bring the share price down. I don’t know who benefits, but frankly, I am getting a bit tired of having to address all the skepticism and correct the constant stream of misinformation. I think I'll just let the ignorance run its course.
BL
P.S. Nat, je mag dit vertalen.



BL

I also responded to Hans before I read your post. You had a very similar take away "that the margins are not completely comparable at this stage of development".

The only area I differ is that I would caution about creating an environment that keeps dissenters from bringing legitimate concerns to light. If a board becomes too positive and self reinforcing it can lose value. I want to know as many facts as possible about my investments. Even if it is something I overlooked. That said posting derogatory information without backing it up without facts and appropriate discussion does not provide value. It can be a difficult balance to maintain.

FL
Flatlander
0
quote:

brightlight schreef op 1 februari 2020 20:24:


Reply,
De verkoop op de Japanse markt is al gestart sinds november van vorig jaar (research use only).
Het vertrek van de CFO stoort iedereen, of laat me zeggen de ongelukkige timing ervan. De CFO had beter een maand gewacht met zijn ontslag, dan had het op de persbabbel van 5 maart deftig kunnen uitgelegd worden. Nu slaat iedereen aan het gissen. Het is echter niet de eerste keer dat de communicatie van Bcart beter had gekund. De vraag is nu of het aandeel al niet genoeg is afgestraft op basis van iets wat uiteindelijk evengoed een storm in een glas water kan blijken. De paniek in aanloop naar 6 januari bleek uiteindelijk ook ongegrond.
CGCDLR,
Bedankt voor de mooie woorden.
BL



BL
I agree wholeheartedly. The reasons for CFO departure could gamut from personal reasons to some type of restatement. I try to focus on the size of the opportunity, the tangible and intangible assets that are not reflected by the relatively low current market capitalization. That said, a lot of confidence can be restored by executing on the goals that are set for 2020. I still feel that this is a pivotal year so that the company can move toward profitability.

FL
brightlight
0
quote:

Flatlander schreef op 2 februari 2020 20:02:


[...]

BL

I also responded to Hans before I read your post. You had a very similar take away "that the margins are not completely comparable at this stage of development".

The only area I differ is that I would caution about creating an environment that keeps dissenters from bringing legitimate concerns to light. If a board becomes too positive and self reinforcing it can lose value. I want to know as many facts as possible about my investments. Even if it is something I overlooked. That said posting derogatory information without backing it up without facts and appropriate discussion does not provide value. It can be a difficult balance to maintain.

FL

FL
In fact I welcome it when people with a different mindset come to plead their case when they have good arguments. What I was reacting to was the fact that I had already pointed out before the Hans post in question that gross margins at Bcart are nearly the same as those at Cepheid, and yet everybody keeps repeating they are (about 50%) lower! That is what bothers me!
This being said, if Hans would be specific about which margins other than gross he is actually talking about, then I could look into that.
BL
Flatlander
0
One last post. The cepheid analogy was really meant to highlight the similarity of the trajectories of the early sales of their GeneXpert system (a modular, cartridge and console IVD, PCR based system) that I considered analogous to Idylla. The GenXpert system was launched in 2006 and is still growing sales at better than a 25% clip for BD. It is apparent that Cepheid had a reagents business and individual assays (ebola, anthrax, etc.) that sold well even before GeneXpert.

I re-reviewed a 2009 CPHD power point that is quite similar to BCARTs. It is interesting that CPHD originally targeted Oncology MDx as a future growth driver for their cartridge based business. It appears that they abandoned this growth engine in much the same way that BCART abandoned expansion into infectious disease. It almost made me question whether there was an IP issue perhaps over the Phillips Technology that got resolved with an understanding of some sort. Cepheid Website still claims an Oncology MDx portfolio but it has one product an CML MDx test listed. Doesn't seem like much progress in over 10 years.

I've got a bit of a conspiracy bent, so please forgive my tossing out far flung theories on this coincidence.


FL
brightlight
0
quote:

Flatlander schreef op 2 februari 2020 19:41:


[...]

Hi Hans
I went back and reviewed Cepheiid's performance during the period you discuss. The system GeneXpert system that I consider roughly analogous to Idylla did not launch until 2005. Before that they had a anthrax test that sold 8 million units in a few years based on the anthrax mail scare in the U.S. Apparently, the military filled large orders on fear of a biologic attack. Ebola sales also ramped slightly later. One huge difference between the two companies is that rapid infectious disease tests do not appear to languish with a RUO for as long a time as oncology related MDx assays. As we see with the current corona virus, infectious diseases are considered a health care emergency. These emergencies lead to rapid approval of diagnostic tests. Because incubation periods for viruses are often short, PCR tests are one of the few solutions that provide timely results.

This is all important because in my estimation, the research market probably represents less than 5% of the overall oncology IVD market. Because much of the efforts in the US are now based on placing units to get the user community to publish their experiences, I don't think the margins represent the long term potential of the platform. Rather their are inducements being given to garner the testimonials that lead to future growth. In my opinion, the money is definitely in first line diagnostic market. Cepheid was able to crack into that market much quicker because of the emphasis on infectious disease. Again, it would be great if BCART would break out the sales numbers geographically. Several assays have full EU marking for diagnostic use and BCART indicates that consoles are being deployed in front line diagnostic applications at a pace ahead of there projections. I'm not sure how this translates into margins.

Cepheid also had the benefit of launching out of the US, where healthcare reimbursement costs are much higher than the ROW. I would suspect that BCARTs European margins are likely lower due to lower reimbursement rates in the EU, The positive side of that is that a huge tailwind is likely to occur with full diagnostic approval unlocks the ability to exploit the POC market. However, as I pointed out recently, the release of proprietary content of our partners GHDX and ImmunExpress will likely result in accelerated console deployment but lower margins as these assays garner royalties rather than the profit margins built into the proprietary assay content. While I'm very optimistic about these new assays, I think we need to temper expectations since we do not know the royalty specifics. In the pharmaceutical industry high single digit to low double digit royalties are the norm. I'm not sure if that is the case here. Seems like a premium is justified given the amount of technology that is required.

So in answer to your question I don't think you can compare margins until BCART can sell into the POC markets in the US and the larger Asian markets.

FL

FL,
Excellent post, but let's establish once and for all which margins we are talking about.
BL
natje 1966
0
als ik dit allemaal vertaal is het nog altijd een beetje chinees voor mij
hoe staan we er nu eigenlijk voor?
natje 1966
0
wie kan mij helpen in het Nederlands aub, met alle respect voor de mensen dat in het Engels posten
brightlight
0
quote:

nat1966 schreef op 2 februari 2020 21:28:


wie kan mij helpen in het Nederlands aub, met alle respect voor de mensen dat in het Engels posten

Nat,
in een notedop gaat het erover dat Flatlander op zoek was naar een bedrijf dat vergelijkbaar is met Biocartis qua business-model en qua sector, maar dat al veel verder staat in zijn ontwikkeling. Dat bedrijf is Cepheid. Door het reeds afgelegde groeitraject van Cepheid te bekijken kunnen we ons een beeld vormen van het groeitraject dat Biocartis nog te wachten staat. Cepheid is ondertussen voor 4 Miljard Dollar overgenomen door Danaher.
Nu zal de Engelse tekst wel duidelijk worden.
BL
natje 1966
0
thanks brightlight , maar is dan toch een heel groot concurrent van biocartis ?en wat denk je dan zelf van de kansen voor Biocartis
natje 1966
0
want hebben ze dan wel kansen om verder te groeien als er dan een zo een grote concurrent is
of blijven ze ergens ter plaatse trappelen ?
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