Ablynx, vanaf de IPO op NASDAQ

118 Posts, Pagina: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 » | Laatste
Erik007
0
Sommige forum-leden denken dat er maandag of volgende week misschien al een nieuw bod komt van Novo Nordisk. Ik denk het niet : Novo Nordisk zal eerst grondig de boeken, pipeline, ... van Ablynx willen inkijken vooraleer een hoger bod te plaatsen. Idem voor eventuele andere kandidaat-overnemers. Het is een mening.
orchid
0
Cijfers zijn ruim bekend en niet zo complex. de pipeline is bekend ook de fases waarin ze zitten daar is de procedure van Emea voor, die is openbaar.....en uitgebreid getest.( fase 1 2 en 3 )met documentatie en testen en commentaar en eventuele vragen en opmerkingen van de betrokken commissies.
Bio bedrijven zijn daar ook open over omdat ze hiermee financiering aantrekken.

Overname is dus niet zo complex vergeleken bij bijv. een autofabrikant, die kan veel lijken in de kast hebben.
Laatste openbare cijfers( kwartaalcijfers verplicht) geven een erg goed beeld.
Kortom, de cijfers zijn goed bekend, pipeline ook, in de boeken kijken ach...uiteindelijk wel, maar geen groot issue hier.
Allemaal regels die horen bij een beursnotering van het bedrijf.
Tom3
0
quote:

Erik007 schreef op 13 januari 2018 15:05:


Sommige forum-leden denken dat er maandag of volgende week misschien al een nieuw bod komt van Novo Nordisk. Ik denk het niet : Novo Nordisk zal eerst grondig de boeken, pipeline, ... van Ablynx willen inkijken vooraleer een hoger bod te plaatsen. Idem voor eventuele andere kandidaat-overnemers. Het is een mening.


Het is helemaal de vraag of ze die toestemming krijgen. Moses zit kennelijk niet op pottenkijkers te wachten. Novo en ook Merck (2x) en Sanofi hebben natuurlijk wel een soort due diligence gedaan voordat ze hun wederzijdse partnerprogramma's op papier gezet hebben. De relatie met AbbVie zal wel iets minder hartelijk zijn, maar ook die valt niet uit te sluiten. Vooral het Duitse Merck KGaA heeft gezien haar beroerde track record alle belang bij een versterking van haar ontwikkelafdeling.
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-...
Erik007
0
"Het biotechbedrijf staat op een zucht van een eerste medicijn dat rijp is voor de markt. Het wekt daardoor de belangstelling van farmaspelers uit de hele wereld. Naast Novo Nordisk lonken ook andere naar Ablynx, stellen experts", Saar Sinnaeve en Jan De Schapelaere, Hele wereld kijkt naar onze biotechparels", De Tijd, zaterdag 13 januari 2018, p. 5
Erik007
0
Over de lopende Beursrally bij De Tijd :

"Had u voor het bod van Novo Nordisk aandelen Ablynx in portefeuille ? En dacht u na de weekwinst van ruim 70 procent voor het Gentse biotechaandeel op een mooie ereplaats te staan in de Beursrally? Think again.

Van de 12.000 deelnemers hadden er ruim 3.000 Ablynx opgenomen in hun selectie. Daarmee is Ablynx het populairste aandeel in de competitie. Samen met u zagen nog duizenden deelnemers hun rendement deze week fors opveren."

De Tijd, zaterdag 13 januari 2018, p. 34
Erik007
0
15/01/2018 19:04:34 - Bron : De Tijd

Euronext Brussel: drie aandelen winnen meer dan 20 procent

(...) Onderaan de tabel belandde Ablynx (-7,4%, 33,90 euro). Het Gentse
biotechbedrijf werd vorige week 73 procent duurder na het vijandige overnamebod
van het Deense Novo Nordisk. De Denen boden 28 euro cash en 2,50 euro extra als
Ablynx vorderingen weet te boeken met twee lopende onderzoeksprojecten (RSV en
reuma). Beleggers duwden Ablynx vorige week ver boven die biedprijs, tot ruim 36
euro. Maandag had het aandeel last van winstnemingen.
(c) Tijd Realtime

Erik007
0
In de Netto Aandelengids, bijlage bij De Tijd van zaterdag 13 januari :

60 aandelen doorgelicht, i.c. de Belgische aandelen die door de lezers van De Tijd het intensiefst gevolgd worden : Ablynx staat op de 2de plaats.

Erik007
0
Op De Tijd, Markten Live :

07:54

Ablynx nog steeds in de belangstelling

Vandaag is het publieke overnamebod van het Deense Novo Nordisk op Ablynx ruim een week oud. Verschillende grote partijen, zoals institutionele beleggers, deden grote transacties en over- of onderschreden verschillende drempels.

Het meest opvallende kooporder moet wel dat van Aat Van Herk zijn, die ook voor het bod al de grootste aandeelhouder was en dat nu ook blijft.

Van Herck sprong op 12 januari boven de drempel van 10 procent.

Erik007
0
17 januari, deel 1

Jan. 17, 2018 3:16 PM ET|1 comment| About: Ablynx NV (ABLX), ABLYF, NVO, Includes: ABBV, BAYRY, GSK, JNJ, MRK,

(4,523 followers)

Summary
Novo Nordisk has made a $3.1B bid on the Belgian biotech Ablynx.

The Danish insulin giant needs acquisitions to turn to growth again.

There are probably more pharma giants interested in Ablynx.

Ablynx's pipeline looks very promising and valuable and seems to justify the claim of the Ablynx management that Novo Nordisk undervalues the company.

Novo Nordisk should bid higher to not let go its prey.

Novo Nordisk's bid on Ablynx

On January 8, 2017, Novo Nordisk (NVO), the Danish multinational pharmaceutical giant, made a public announcement that it wanted to acquire the Belgian biotech company Ablynx (ABLX) (OTCPK:ABLYF). Novo Nordisk offered $33 per share, which means a total amount of $3.1B. It also disclosed that this was already the second bid. Both bids had been done in December 2017. The first one, which had not been made public before, valued Ablynx at $31.57 per share. The reason that Novo Nordisk made the announcement now for everybody to hear was because it thought that the Ablynx management was uncooperative, and it wanted to convince the shareholders to sell.

But Ablynx's management put the second bid aside too, with a press release that reacted firmly against Novo Nordisk's bid, because it felt Novo Nordisk's bid was 'undervaluing the company':

The Ablynx Board, with the assistance of financial and legal advisors, and taking into account the interests of all its stakeholders, unanimously concluded that the proposal fundamentally undervalues Ablynx and its strong prospects for continued growth and value creation as it implements its long-term strategic plan of becoming a fully integrated biopharmaceutical company.

I think that most shareholders will have the same feeling as the management of Ablynx. A new bid of Novo Nordisk may be in the pipeline after the lukewarm reaction of the Ablynx shareholders, who team with the management, and I wouldn't even be surprised if there came another player or players to bid up the price of Ablynx.

Bloomberg cites Credit Suisse saying that Bayer (OTCPK:BAYRY), Novartis (NVS), Shire (SHPG), and Sanofi (SNY) could be interested and maybe even GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). I would certainly add the privately held Boehringer Ingelheim, since it develops two products with Ablynx, to which we will come back later. And these are just the European pharmaceuticals that might be interested. I think that even Pfizer (PFE) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) might be interested. Pfizer already has some treatments for rare diseases, and JNJ already has a Belgian biotech arm in Janssen Pharmaceutica. But even more probable are Ablynx's partners in the development stages of several of its drugs: AbbVie (ABBV) and Merck (MRK). The question with so many possible candidates is: why is Novo Nordisk not paying more for Ablynx?

To Novo Nordisk's credit: at least the bid shows that Novo Nordisk's new CEO Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen was serious when he announced that acquisitions would be necessary to refind growth. The company is known for its extensive range of diabetes medicines, but its quarterly revenue has been stagnant for two years now at around $4B.

Ablynx would fit into the Danish company's blood-disorder unit. This signals a new strategy for Novo Nordisk: go after drugs for rare diseases that have high price tags attached to them, so revenue can start to grow again.

The first rumored takeover target for Novo Nordisk under Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen was Global Blood Therapeutics (GBT). Novo Nordisk was reported to be bidding for that company in March 2017, but nothing has been heard of it since. Ablynx is the second try that we know of. But again, it is not certain that a deal will be made. I think that Novo Nordisk did not act properly here. The offer is too low, and Novo Nordisk's behavior will not be seen as good practice by the Ablynx shareholders, who will have to vote for a takeover. First, there is an unsolicited offer, then it is made public, and probably, the offer is playing low ball. Is it Novo Nordisk's inexperience in takeovers? Maybe. The $3.1B bid would be the biggest takeover of the company ever.

Will Novo Nordisk raise the bid? I think it should. Novo faces increased competition in diabetes drugs, and I also think that Ablynx's management was right when it called the offer too low if you consider not just Ablynx's almost certain approval of caplacizumab but also its very promising pipeline.
Erik007
2
17 januari, deel 2

The pipeline of Ablynx

Caplacizumab

The bids came after positive results from the Phase III HERCULES study with caplacizumab, Ablynx's nanobody for the treatment of acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (or aTTP). It is a disease that forms blood clots form in blood vessels. One out of five patients dies from this disease, and there is no treatment yet. Therefore, it has an FDA fast-track status. The estimated market opportunity comes at €800M or almost $1B.

Vobarilizumab

But Ablynx has more in its pipeline than just caplacizumab. Vobarilizumab is in Phase II and looks even more promising. It targets RA or rheumatoid arthritis, the same disease as AbbVie's Humira, which is the drug with the highest sales worldwide. I think that it is no coincidence that AbbVie works with Ablynx here. The company has experience in this area, and it can also nip competition for Humira in the bud, if necessary. Humira's sales are expected to aggregate to an astounding $21B in 2020. The problem for AbbVie is of course threatened by Humira's patent expiration date. The company says it could at least hold the patent until 2022, but it is even targeting 2034 for some applications. The question is if this will hold. Now, of course, Ablynx cannot fight against the biggest biotech companies, such as AbbVie, even if its product would be better. A network of sales people is indispensable and that is of course what AbbVie has. AbbVie has an opt-in agreement with Ablynx for Vobarilizumab, and if the results keep being positive, it is almost certain that AbbVie will be interested to take over Ablynx as a whole too.

Vobarilizumab is also in Phase II for SLE or systemic lupus erythematosus. It is an autoimmune disease, in which the immune system attacks healthy parts of the body. This too is a disease, like aTTP, that has no real specific treatment yet. Anti-inflammatory drugs and even malaria pills are used to treat patients. So, Vobarilizumab could address a multi-billion market opportunity too. The market is estimated to reach $2.2B by 2025. The results of the Phase II study of Vobarilizumab in SLE are expected to be announced in the first half of 2018.

ALX-0171

Another very promising program in Ablynx's pipeline is ALX-0171, which targets RSV. That is a viral respiratory infection. It is most known in infants. Some of your children might have had it. Ours has, but was luckily strong enough to fight it off. More than three million babies per year are hospitalized because of this disease, and ALX-0171 could be a first-in-class treatment.

But what may be lesser known is that RSV also occurs in elderly patients and HSCT patients. In the US alone, there are 177,000 elderly who are hospitalized every year with RSV. 14,000 do not make it and pass away. HSCT stands for haematopoietic stem cell transplant. HSCT cells are often taken from bone marrow and mostly used to treat patients with blood cancers like leukemia, but it is also used for some auto-immune diseases. About 12% of the patients become infected with RSV within 1 year, and 40% of those develop pneumonia and lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). 20-30% of these patients do not make it. Let's hope that ALX-0171 can prevent death in those cases.

Just as caplacizumab, ALX-0171 is fully owned by Ablynx, without collaboration. It has a market opportunity of at least $1B. The results of Phase II are expected to be announced in the second half of this year.

The rest

Ozoralizumab is in Phase II in Japan in cooperation with Taisho (OTC:TAISF). It targets clinical problems associated with auto-immune disorders such as rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, inflammatory bowel disease, and psoriasis. But Ablynx hasn't really reported about it that much after the deal with Taisho in 2015. In 2014, there had already been a deal with Eddingpharm in China, but the program there is still pre-clinical. I don't expect much from it, and the company neither, I suspect, since it has not found a partner outside of China and Japan, and it doesn't talk about it that much anymore.

In total, there are 45 programs for 7 nanobodies, among which 17 programs in immuno-oncology and 8 in immuno-inflammation; both are huge markets. There are some partners in these pre-clinical stages, one of which is Novo Nordisk. Most of these programs are long shots, since most are pre-clinical. There are three products in Phase I: ALX-0761/M1095 (the M shows it is in collaboration with Merck) for psoriasis. BI 836880 is developed by Boehringer Ingelheim, but Ablynx already got $67M in milestones payments from BI for this product and still has the co-promotion rights to it in Europe. Boehringer Ingelheim has also started a Phase I study in BI 655088, which again triggered $8M in a milestone payment.

Of course, there is a lot of value in the combination of these programs and nanobodies too. Ablynx has proven to have a valuable platform and competent scientists.

Conclusion
If you look at the programs in Phase III (Caplacizumab) and Phase II (Vobarilizumab and ALX-0171), there is a huge addressable market for Ablynx, especially because it has the complete rights for two of the three completely, so without any partners. If Novo Nordisk wants to grow by making acquisitions, it cannot play the cheapskate and let the others run away with its prey. Since Ablynx looks very promising and has a huge addressable market with its products, Novo Nordisk should understand that Ablynx thinks the $3.1B offer is too low.

An extra lesson for the wise: I think that despite the huge rise, Ablynx's shares could go up quite a lot more, from a bidding contest or even, over the long term, on its own. If the results of this year of Vobarilizumab in SLE (which will be announced in the next months) and ALX-0171 for RSV (which are expected in the second half of the year) are good, the stock could surge more.

Disclosure: I am/we are long ABLX, NVO.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Erik007
0
Your Daily Pharma Scoop: Ablynx Takeover Battle, Acorda Takeover Speculation, Oramed Update
Jan. 20, 2018 7:59 AM ET

Analysis of top Seeking Alpha coverage: Ablynx (ABLYF)

Today, we will discuss the ongoing takeover battle involving Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Belgian biotech Ablynx.

On January 8th, Novo Nordisk went hostile with its takeover offer for Ablynx. The two companies had been in discussions over the previous month. However, Ablynx had not been open to a takeover offer. Novo Nordisk went public with its offer on January 8th. The offer valued Ablynx at EUR2.6 billion ($3.1 billion based on that day's exchange rate). The offer placed a premium of 44% over Ablynx's closing price in the previous trading session.

Ablynx immediately released a statement rejecting the takeover offer. Ablynx's board determined that the offer undervalued the company. The sentiment was echoed by the Street. And in fact, Ablynx shares jumped above the takeover price, which suggests that the market expects a higher offer from Novo. Ablynx currently trades above EUR34 in Belgium, indicating that the market continues to expect a higher offer. As of now, Novo has not come up with a fresh offer, but we believe this is likely to happen in the coming weeks, especially after Ablynx's largest shareholder said a higher offer would make him consider the bid.

Aat van Herk, whose Van Herk Investments holds around a 10.2% stake in Ablynx, said in a statement that it was open to an offer that properly reflects the value of the Belgian biotech company.

We are shortly releasing a valuation report on Ablynx but the question is how high would Novo go. Novo's last offer was at EUR30.50 per share. Based on the current trading price, the market is expecting a takeover offer at around EUR34, which means Novo will have to raise its offer by at least 15% and this would mean a total premium of around 60% (premium calculated from the day Novo went public with the offer). It will be interesting to see if this would get Ablynx to the negotiating table. What also will be interesting to see is whether there will be any counter bids.

Biotech M&A is expected to take off this year, especially after the tax reforms in the U.S. And this money will be chasing undervalued late-stage assets. Ablynx is an attractive target for any biotech major. The company's lead product candidate is on the verge of commercialization. In addition, there is a promising pipeline. We believe that the next offer, if it sees a slight increase (10-15%), from Novo would open the door to negotiations. However, the Danish biopharma may have to offer steeper premium to acquire Ablynx.
Erik007
0
Cacti Asset Management Lifted Exxon Mobil (XOM) Position; ABLYNX NV (ABLYF) Shorts Down By 31.12%

ABLYNX NV (OTCMKTS:ABLYF) had a decrease of 31.12% in short interest. ABLYF’s SI was 941,800 shares in January as released by FINRA. Its down 31.12% from 1.37 million shares previously. With 700 avg volume, 1345 days are for ABLYNX NV (OTCMKTS:ABLYF)’s short sellers to cover ABLYF’s short positions. It closed at $43 lastly. It is down 0.00% since January 22, 2017 and is . It has underperformed by 16.70% the S&P500.

Cacti Asset Management Llc increased Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) stake by 19.79% reported in 2017Q3 SEC filing. Cacti Asset Management Llc acquired 69,115 shares as Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)’s stock rose 0.21%. The Cacti Asset Management Llc holds 418,335 shares with $34.07 million value, up from 349,220 last quarter. Exxon Mobil Corp now has $369.26 billion valuation. The stock decreased 0.32% or $0.28 during the last trading session, reaching $87.15. About 13.09 million shares traded or 27.70% up from the average. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) has declined 9.08% since January 22, 2017 and is downtrending. It has underperformed by 25.78% the S&P500.

Ablynx NV, a biopharmaceutical company, develops Nanobodies that is a proprietary therapeutic protein based on single-domain antibody fragments for the treatment of various diseases. The company has market cap of $3.08 billion. The firm develops products in various therapeutic areas, such as inflammation, hematology, immuno-oncology, oncology, and respiratory diseases. It currently has negative earnings. The Company’s clinical programs include caplacizumab, an anti-vWF Nanobody that is in Phase III clinical trial to treat acquired thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura; ALX-0171, an anti-RSV Nanobody, which is in Phase IIb clinical trial for the treatment of respiratory syncytial virus infection; and Vobarilizumab, an anti-IL-6R Nanobody that is in Phase IIb clinical trial for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, as well as in Phase II clinical trial to treat systemic lupus erythematosus.

Among 26 analysts covering Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), 10 have Buy rating, 6 Sell and 10 Hold. Therefore 38% are positive. Exxon Mobil has $104 highest and $20 lowest target. $81.34’s average target is -6.67% below currents $87.15 stock price. Exxon Mobil had 82 analyst reports since July 22, 2015 according to SRatingsIntel. The rating was upgraded by Barclays Capital on Monday, October 12 to “Equal-Weight”. The firm has “Buy” rating by Cowen & Co given on Friday, January 19. The firm has “Reduce” rating given on Tuesday, November 7 by HSBC. The firm earned “Neutral” rating on Friday, July 21 by Citigroup. The firm has “Neutral” rating by Jefferies given on Friday, April 7. Cowen & Co maintained Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) on Tuesday, September 19 with “Buy” rating. Tudor Pickering downgraded the stock to “Sell” rating in Tuesday, January 26 report. The firm has “Hold” rating by Jefferies given on Tuesday, August 29. The rating was upgraded by Scotia Capital to “Buy” on Monday, June 5. Cowen & Co maintained it with “Buy” rating and $10000 target in Friday, July 28 report.

Investors sentiment is 0.85 in Q3 2017. Its the same as in 2017Q2. It is without change, as 57 investors sold XOM shares while 806 reduced holdings. only 114 funds opened positions while 621 raised stakes. 2.13 billion shares or 0.48% more from 2.12 billion shares in 2017Q2 were reported. Braun Stacey Associates has 239,946 shares for 1.34% of their portfolio. Vista Capital Prtn Incorporated reported 0.08% in Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM). Legacy Capital Prtnrs stated it has 43,758 shares or 1.89% of all its holdings. The Ohio-based Sequoia Finance Advisors Ltd Liability Co has invested 0.31% in Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM). Murphy Pohlad Asset Management Lc reported 28,663 shares. 151,321 were reported by Carnegie Capital Asset Mgmt Lc. Montgomery Inv has 0.82% invested in Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM). Martingale Asset L P, a Massachusetts-based fund reported 24,170 shares. Kempner Cap holds 0.15% or 2,800 shares. Overbrook, a New York-based fund reported 44,910 shares. Steinberg Asset Management accumulated 26,259 shares or 0.32% of the stock. Mondrian Invest Ptnrs Ltd holds 145,146 shares or 0.3% of its portfolio. Thrivent Fincl For Lutherans holds 0.2% or 680,924 shares. One Capital Management Llc reported 37,018 shares stake. Camelot Portfolios Ltd Liability Corporation reported 0.6% stake.
Erik007
0
Wanneer Novo Nordisk, of een andere geïnteresseerde partij, een nieuw bod uitbrengt zal dit sowieso minstens 35 € per aandeel Ablynx moeten bedragen. Indien er op relatief korte tijd geen nieuw bod komt, gaan we een tijdje terug naar 30 €.
Erik007
0
Ablynx: Novo Offer Undervalues The Company
Jan. 22, 2018 10:00 AM ET

Summary
Novo’s current offer undervalues Ablynx.

We expect Novo to increase the cash portion of the offer by 20%.

20% increase would reflect the fair value of caplacizumab and the pipeline.

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Total Pharma Tracker.

Voor volledig artikel, zie :

seekingalpha.com/article/4139058-ably...
Erik007
0
Slotkoers Ablynx op Nasdaq : $43,8
+ $2,17 of + 5,21%

$43,8 = 35,7318

Volume 603.345 stuks t.o.v. gemiddeld 50-daags volume van 279.666 stuks

-------------

Brussel, slotkoers : 35,66 €

Volume : 420.467 stuks t.o.v 408.532 gemiddeld

-------------
Conclusie : verschil Nasdaq/Brussel situeert zich vooral op het vlak van het volume, enerzijds een "normaal" (met het gemiddelde overeenstemmend) volume in Brussel, anderzijds later op de dag meer dan het dubbele van het gemiddelde volume op Nasdaq.

Morgen is het alweer een andere dag....
Erik007
0
Ik hoor dat er momenteel veel vraag naar aandelen Ablynx op de uitleenmarkt is.

Dit wil zeggen dat aantal geshorte aandelen zal toenemen ?

Iemand die daar andere zinvolle duiding bij heeft ?

Erik007
0
Heb wat cash vrijgemaakt voor een eventuele (bijkomende) snelle rit met Ablynx, Kiadis of MDxHealth, mocht er nieuws komen...
Erik007
0
quote:

Erik007 schreef op 23 januari 2018 16:39:


Heb wat cash vrijgemaakt voor een eventuele (bijkomende) snelle rit met Ablynx, Kiadis of MDxHealth, mocht er nieuws komen...


Het is Biocartis geworden; soms men moet men snel kunnen springen op de trein die aankomt en niet blijven wachten op de treinen die pas wat later zullen aankomen....
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