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Koffiekamer « Terug naar discussie overzicht

Smeer

61 Posts, Pagina: 1 2 3 4 » | Laatste

Omlaag ↓

[verwijderd] 16 april 2019 09:42

COT
tot 9 apr
fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/7/39...

CRACK SPREAD
www.thestar.com.my/business/business-...

100VS40
100: oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Ca...

SANCTIONS
www.nytimes.com/2019/04/15/world/midd...
2 mei

SOUR/sanctions
www.eurasiareview.com/15042019-russia...

PROD NO.s
news.kuwaittimes.net/website/oil-pric...

[verwijderd] 16 april 2019 11:45

OPEC production targets
www.bloomberg.com/graphics/opec-produ...
16 april, compliance in % grafic, tabel historisch/land

[verwijderd] 16 april 2019 12:39

REFINERY CAPACITY
Het is maintenance season (Azië, VS) en er zijn wat outages door ongelukjes. Krapjes dus, hoge product prices maar te weinig capaciteit. Product imports omlaag en builds in crude storage. Maar vanaf eind mei, dus zeker Q3, wordt een heel ander verhaal als OPEC niet flink bakzeil haalt(De VS zijn al aan het slijmen, russen beetje aan het dreigen maar deden sowieso niks/weinig bijdrage aan de cuts. En inmiddels moeten de VS wel echt wat gaan doen met die sancties anders gelooft helemaal niemand ze meer). Demand gaat spiken, supply gaat het wsl. niet bijhouden. Dus óf WallStreet (PAPER OIL) to the rescue óf VS gaat nog meer chemisch afval dumpen (troep gemixed in hun SPR) en naar ons exporteren, dat wij gaan slikken omdat we niks durven te zeggen.

Deze meneer maakt zich terecht druk:
www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2019/...

[verwijderd] 16 april 2019 12:51

IMO2020
Do your own research. Gaat lonen. Let op: wordt eerst dip en dan GO! Eenmalig effect, gaat alles een flinke trede hoger zetten en dat gaat wel effe duren met flinke inspanning omdat weer ongedaan te maken.

Kortom q3 en verder is hoog. Dat laat alleen 2e helft q2 voor een dip. Maar geopolitiek kan dat onmogelijk maken.

[verwijderd] 16 april 2019 16:37

SUPPLY CRIS
Venezuela: www.csis.org/analysis/oil-market-upda...

New on the block:
Iran/Irak: www.webwire.com/ViewPressRel.asp?aId=...
Het aantal steden/dorpen dat getroffen en geëvacueerd zijn/worden lijkt aanzienlijk. De olieinstallaties zijn beschermd en/of uitgeschakeld. Daardoor zullen de gevolgen klein en tijdelijk zijn. Maar als de mensen daar niet fatsoenlijk hulp krijgen gaan die meer schade berokkenen dan het water.

Syria: (Note: Suez chokepoint)
www.plenglish.com/index.php?o=rn&...
over land:
en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-reportedly-s...

[verwijderd] 16 april 2019 16:45

DEMAND
While OPEC-led supply cuts have boosted Brent by more than 30 percent this year, gains have been limited by worries that slowing economic growth could weaken demand for fuel.
www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil...

Sofar: VS niet slecht, EU niet slecht, vanavond cijfers China. We'll see.

[verwijderd] 16 april 2019 18:12

SUPPLY CRIS
Libië:
-achtergrond (note de saudi. EU aan het bekruipen?)
www.salon.com/2019/04/12/libyas-incom...
-actueel prod
www.thenational.ae/business/energy/fu...

note Frankrijk, Italië. denk Shell, rus

[verwijderd] 17 april 2019 00:45

US CRUDE STOCKPILES
www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-ima...
Meerjarengrafiek/monthly

[verwijderd] 17 april 2019 08:53

OPEC

19 mei
JMMC in Jeddah, SA
Agenda:
- voortgang/status en wsl. nieuwe productie targets
www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-m...
www.theoilandgasyear.com/news/oil-pri...
- mogelijk (mei of juni) bekrachtigen van "the charter on permanent cooperation between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers led by Russia".
www.teletrader.com/novak-opec-charter...

25 juni
OPEC vergadering in Wenen.
www.offshoreenergytoday.com/opec-memb...

P.S. Verwacht een stroom aan deels tegenstrijdige berichten van OPEC en releases van anderen (VS) om hun of de markt te beinvloeden in de aanloop naar beide bijeenkomsten.

[verwijderd] 17 april 2019 11:48

DEMAND

REFINERY China
-At least six Chinese state-owned refineries plan to close for maintenance in 2019 with the bulk of the closures occurring during the second quarter of the year before fuel demand peaks in the third quarter.
-A flurry of refiners started maintenance, with shutdowns mainly happening in March to May,” said Zhou Guoxia, crude analyst with consultancy JLC, adding that imports also fell as independent refiner delayed buying to this month to benefit from a cut in the value-added tax for imports that started on April 1.
www.reuters.com/article/china-economy...
Artikel geeft beeld (en cijfers) dynamiek import crude China; onafh, voorr, prijs

-the refiners anticipate the government’s stimulus measures to boost demand.
-The Agency went on to add that “preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year.” By comparison, crude oil demand in India was up 300,000 barrels per day in India during the same period, while the U.S. witnessed an increase of 295,000 barrels per day on the back of an increase in petrochemical demand.
-As a result, it won’t be surprising to see teapot refiners in China further increase their import levels as they try to lock in crude oil before it gets more expensive. This will further improve the demand-supply balance in the oil industry as the year progresses, and potentially lead to further improvement in prices.
capital10x.com/strong-chinese-demand-...

SPR China
-while China has been building up its SPR stocks all the time, it rarely discloses its commercial or strategic oil reserve data, so it is difficult to estimate the pace of its buildup. According to official information, China plans to have its national petroleum reserves at some 500 million barrels by 2020. In 2014, China made its first announcement about the SPR, which then totaled 12.43 million tons. The figure climbed to 26.1 million tons in 2015. It is now generally estimated that China's oil bases are storing about 40 to 50 days of oil use, and it is essential for the country to continue stockpiling toward the target of 90 days of import oil cover in the future.
www.globaltimes.cn/content/1143813.shtml
Import afh., vorig jaar 70%, [wordt 72]
Note link Minis of Comm

[verwijderd] 18 april 2019 08:36

TA daily
a.c-dn.net/b/3pk29I/Crude-Oil-Price-M...
daily close above that opening the door for a test of the $70/bbl figure
66.09-67.03
63.59-64.88 <---
a break below 60.39
57.24-88

COMMENT
buyer’s fatigue, nervous longs and the still very overbought technical indicators.
Asia will likely be cautious about putting on new longs today ahead of the Easter break and the sideways price action of late.
www.investing.com/analysis/healthcare...

SUPPLY
fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/editorc...
meerj. grafiek crude output R,SA,OPEC

www.actionforex.com/action-insight/oi...
Goede seasonal grafieken VS

[verwijderd] 19 april 2019 09:39

TA
weekly
static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/...
daily
static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/...

www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-ins...

PAPER China
www.thenational.ae/business/energy/oi...
futures, alaBrent, 10dgn,

SUPPLY
The IEA even reported that Opec production fell 550,000 bpd. The IEA also said that US sanctions and power outages pushed member Venezuela’s crude output to a long-term low of 870,000 bpd, even lower than Opec had reported the day before. In the near future, demand growth and geopolitical issues are important factors to affect oil prices. Both Opec and the IEA believes the world oil demand will keep uptrend in coming years
oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World...
graph
fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/editorc...
U.S. crude inventories, weekly changes since 2017

RIGCOUNT graph [2015>
fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/editorc...
production growth forecasts from shale, the country’s largest oil fields, continue to shrink.

$
uk.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/...
Thursday’s oil rally was kept in check, however, by a rise in the U.S. dollar, which makes crude more expensive for global buyers.

[verwijderd] 20 april 2019 12:19

OPEC viewpoint
www.gulf-times.com/story/629225/Opec-...
OPEC +
oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World...
beetje slap geouwehoer van oilprice rond een citaat. We weten echter dat het om 19 mei gaat (zie voorgaande post)

REFINERY maintenance VS, IMO2020
www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/re...

[verwijderd] 23 april 2019 09:16

TA graphs
thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/http...
thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/http...
thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/http...
thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/http...
thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/960x0/http...

The annual high for any April is on the 22nd. The high for the monthly cycle is on the 27th and the weekly cycle high is on April 20th. So, the high for this price rise will likely be between the 20th and the 29th. Following that time period, we will likely see the largest oil decline in 2019.

www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculation...

COT
www.investing.com/analysis/wti-crude-...

SUPPLY
waivers: is NOT the main story!
urals, IMO2020: gulfnews.com/business/energy/russian-...

EURO verrassend
investinghaven.com/commodities-gold/c...

[verwijderd] 23 april 2019 12:18

SUPPLY
www.investing.com/news/commodities-ne...
moneyweek.com/505466/real-reason-oil-...

G20
www.japan.go.jp/g20japan/

DEMAND Belarus, EU (later van belang)
Alt-RU imports By the end of the year: BNK
tass.com/economy/1055116
the damage Mozyr Oil Refinery has suffered due to polluted oil. The statement was made by Deputy Chairman of the Belarusian state petrochemical concern Belneftekhim Vladimir Sizov at a science and technology conference in Mozyr, BelTA has learned. Vladimir Sizov said: “It is too early to talk about the scale of the damage caused by substandard oil. Many things are hard to see for now because the equipment is sealed off. It will be possible to evaluate the internal condition of reactors and pipes only after a major overhaul.”
eng.belta.by/economics/view/independe...
Belarus has been forced to suspend exports of light oil products to Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic states due to its receipt of low-quality Russian oil, the deputy head of BelOil, Sergei Grib, told journalists in Minsk on Tuesday.
"Delivery of light oil products (gasolines and diesel) to Ukraine, the Baltic states, and Poland has been suspended," Grib said, commenting on the consequences of decreases in oil-refining volumes in Belarus in connection with the low-quality oil.
"Contractual obligations have been suspended until the issue surrounding Russian oil is settled," he said.
en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/5833...
The refineries of the European Union have received poor-quality Russian oil, ‘enkorr’ has informed with reference to its sources.
“Oil with a high content of organic chlorides has reached a refinery in Germany, which is located on the northern branch of the Druzhba pipeline. The same oil will reach the Hungarian refinery of the MOL group,” the message says.
The ‘enkorr’ source in the Ukrtransnafta suggested that the reaction of representatives of the refinery to poor-quality oil will be announced when the Easter holidays in the European Union end and people come to work.
According to the publication, Ukrtransnafta decided not to accumulate low-quality Russian oil in its tanks due to fear of corrosion.
The Druzhba pipeline allows pumping raw materials from Russia to the European Union; in Belarus, Druzhba branches into two parts: the northern part (through Poland, Germany, Latvia and Lithuania) and the southern part (through Ukraine, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Croatia).
belsat.eu/en/news/low-quality-russian...
make a decision to acquire a seaport terminal,” Sergei Grib said. According to him, buying seaport assets is on the agenda as the country is looking for oil import alternative routes after the tax maneuver in Russia. “This issue is always on the agenda. Everything will depend on the terms and conditions that our partners from the Baltic countries will offer us. We are talking about the amount of 200,000-300,000 tonnes per month,” he added. Belneftekhim has been working on diversification of oil supply routes for a while. It has already had experience of bringing oil from various regions, gained possible partners and worked out the logistics of bringing alternative oil to the Belarusian refineries using the capacities of seaports, pipeline and railway transport,
eng.belta.by/economics/view/belarus-l...
MINSK, 23 April (BelTA) – Belarusian oil refineries – Mozyr Oil Refinery and Naftan – are expected to increase the export of gasoline by 1.3-1.6 million tonnes per annum. The statement was made by Deputy Director General for Commerce of Belarusian Oil Company Sergei Grib at a seminar-conference on exporting products of the Belarusian state petrochemical concern Belneftekhim to the European Union on 23 April, BelTA has learned. The executive said: “We see that the European Union will not be a premium market for gasoline sales. There is Africa. Gasoline is in short supply over there. We can start exporting products to America. There are markets we can sell our products on if the European Union does not need our fuel.” The modernization of Mozyr Oil Refinery and Naftan is estimated to cost $2.5 billion. It will allow increasing the crude oil conversion ratio and improving the overall performance of the oil refining industry in Belarus. Construction and installation work is supposed to be finished by 7 November. Startup and commissioning work is supposed to start after that
eng.belta.by/economics/view/belarusia...

[verwijderd] 23 april 2019 19:58

TA
a.c-dn.net/b/3w08V4/Bullish-Oil-Price...

PROP
www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-o...

[verwijderd] 23 april 2019 22:25

$
seekingalpha.com/article/4255889-odd-...
When it comes to crude oil, there is something that doesn't quite fit the picture. The PHLX Oil Service Index took out its low from 2008 and the oil price didn't. On the other hand, the oil price did take out its low from 2008 in early 2016 but the OSX index didn’t. The point is that this index houses oil service companies that are very sensitive to oil prices and drilling budgets. An oil price at $64 does not imply an OSX level of $99 but more likely north of $150. Either the OSX index will rally or the stocks in the index are sensing a weakness in the crude oil prices that is not reflected by the price of crude oil... yet.

I think the rebound in crude oil prices in 2019 is primarily driven by China. I think this strong crude oil price is very misleading, as a rebound in the Chinese economy is driven by their infamous lending quotas. That does not mean that the rest of the world is doing all that well, save for the United States.

Note: China heeft net de rem erop gezet en Trump ligt te zeuren om meer QE...

[verwijderd] 24 april 2019 09:44

TA 24apr
a.c-dn.net/b/1gmQRX/Crude-Oil-Price-C...
www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/dai...

COT Brent 23apr
fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/7/41...
www.reuters.com/article/oil-prices-ke...

[verwijderd] 24 april 2019 18:23

SUPPLY
www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-24/oil...

"We allocated May, and the programme is set - the ships are scheduled - so I think there will be very little variation in May production from the last couple of months," Al-Falih said.
Saudi oil shipments for June will be allocated early next month, he said. "We think there will be an up-tick in real demand, but certainly we're not going to be preemptive and increase production preemptively because the market is well-supplied and inventories continue to rise."
www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commo...

$
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/04/...

[verwijderd] 25 april 2019 08:55

SUPPLY oxford
www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-...

REFINERY EU/D
Belarus said its neighbor Poland stopped accepting deliveries of Russian crude oil via the Druzhba pipeline at 2000 GMT on Wednesday, according to Belarus state news agency Belta.
Druzhba can ship up to 1 million barrels per day, or one percent of global crude demand.
If the crude is not flowing through Belarus and Poland, that means it cannot reach customers further west, in Germany. Traders from oil majors operating the German refineries said the flows via Druzhba had been stopped.
“No one wants to stop the refineries in Germany. They will be operating at lower capacity now and may import some crude from the sea,” said a trader with a western oil major.
www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-oil...
is kleine pinch van korte duur. timing is wel opvallend, zeker na kritiek majors o.a. shell op kwaliteit USolie paar weken terug
tass.com/economy/1055568
polen sourcing

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