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Potential Risks
Since investment research is an imperfect science, there are always risks associated with your stock regardless of its fundamental strengths. More importantly, the risks are "growth-cycle dependent." At this point in its life cycle, the main concern for Galapagos is whether the partners can gain worldwide marketing for Filgo. As I believe in the extremely favorable chances of success, I ascribed only a 25% risk of a negative regulatory decision (i.e. complete non-approval).
In case of a non-approval for Filgo, I believe that Galapagos shares will tumble over 50% and vice versa. After all, most of the Galapagos' value resides in this molecule. Besides a non-approval, delayed approval is a possibility. And, it can cause the shares to slightly tumble. There is also the risk that other pipeline molecules like GLPG-1972 and MOR-106 might not yield good results. Notwithstanding, I doubt that Galapagos will tumble significantly because these molecules aren't the main attraction. And regardless of Filgo's strength, there is always a chance it might not generate blockbuster sales.
Final Remarks
In all, I maintain my strong buy recommendation on Galapagos with the five out of five stars rating. As special growth equity, Galapagos currently has a $12.0B market cap. Despite its mid-size, I believe there is substantial growth ahead. The company is powered by an extremely vast pipeline with Filgo and other potential blockbusters. Since it's far better than other JAK1 inhibitors, Filgo will likely dominate the autoimmune and inflammatory disease market.
Within the next couple of years, it's spaghetti to sauce that Filgo will become a mega-blockbuster. Even if it cuts only a small fraction of the RA market, you're looking at several billion dollars in sales. The strong FINCH data and the Gilead partnership are solid proofs in the pudding of Filgo's therapeutic value. As such, the next evolutionary leap for Filgo is the FDA, EU, and Japan approvals. Leveraging Gilead's robust infrastructure, Filgo has the best chances of commercialization success.