Mozes kriebel schreef op 29 augustus 2020 19:54:
DD_Police here to share some real DD on RLFTF and correct some of the misinformation posted here:
1. 695m warrants were exercised today and Relief will receive just under $7.2m. Warrants were issued many years ago, e.g. GEM got 600m warrants over 3 years ago, and they are exercising the remaining warrants today, as are Relief employees. Please read financial statements and prior Relief PR’s.
2. In an interview Raj explicitly stated that they have about 700m of warrants outstanding. Today all got exercised.
3. Reasons to exercise warrants:
a. You think the price will crash and want to cash out. Highly unlikely, because GEM already has 600 million shares and they would dump those first. Unless you believe they want to dump 1.1b shares ASAP (spoiler alert: not going to happen).
b. You expect the share price to increase significantly. You will pay a lot less in taxes before spike.
c. Very suspicious that all 700m warrants got exercised. IMO Relief is not going to sell to a big pharma, as it makes no sense. Would you sell a goose that lays golden eggs, before you found out how many eggs a day it can lay? No! What makes the most sense is that Relief and NeuroRX merge, and get uplisted to NASDAQ. Relief has 3b shares outstanding now and they can give NeuroRX say 1bn shares for a total of 4b shares to create a new powerhouse pharmaceutical company. No need to even raise capital, as they can get prepaid for Samivir orders right after FDA Approval. Clearing out the warrants makes sense prior to merging.
d. To fund the inhaler study (~$15m needed). Likely a tiny piece of the puzzle.
4. In Switzerland you have a 1% wealth tax, so you may see management sell a few million shares to pay their taxes. This is what Yves Sagot did when he sold 1% of his 170+m share stake a month ago. No need to panic if it happens.
5. Dr. Javitt said in a video on 8/7/20 that 70 patients have been enrolled. 5 days later in Dr. Yo interview it was up to 85/86. That is 3 patients per day. 102nd patient enrolled about 10-14 days ago. Primary end point is at 1 week time frame. Only question I have, that no one seems to have the answer to, is do they wait for secondary end point, i.e. 28 days, before looking at data? I would hope not. The committee still needs a couple of weeks to analyze the data properly. So we are 1-30 days away.
6. RLF-100 does not reduce mortality by 90%. Please stop posting this nonsense. You are assuming that all 100% of the 21 patients would have died without rlf-100, which is unlikely speculation.
7. I keep hearing that FF Searcy was given 2 days to live prior to RLF-100. I may have missed it, but I did not ever hear/read anything of sorts. I doubt a doctor would say that.
8. RLF-100 is safe! Dr. Javitt explicitly stated that they got in writing from the FDA that the product is safe. All they have to do is prove efficacy, which is what the blinded control study is designed to do.
9. The committee looked at first 30 patients enrolled and determined that RLF-100 is safe. 9 out of 21 patients had rapid recovery from respiratory failure. Sounds like they will not wait 28 days after 102nd patient got enrolled. Maybe even look at data as soon as 102nd patient got enrolled. Say they had 10 patients on RLF-100 and 11 on placebo in initial dataset, and 8 or 9 of those dramatic recoveries were on RLF-100, then a 70-patient dataset may be enough to get an EUA. If you see 30 out of 35 with dramatic improvements, and only 5 out of 35 on placebo with similar results, that will be statistically significant. As product is “SAFE”, an EUA would be a must. If data is overwhelmingly positive then Full FDA Approval would be warranted as well. E.g. 0/35 patients died vs. 10/35 on placebo.
I have a lot more information to share, including posts on valuation as well as additional DD on RLFTF. I have been in the stock since $0.04. I have done my DD on the company and I am extremely pleased with the risk/reward. Please correct me if any of my statements are incorrect. I am interested in real DD; good or bad, and not fake information.