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2014 het jaar van de goudaandelen

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B_B 19 maart 2014 12:32

Gold price drops below $1,350/oz, FOMC dominates
Posted on March 19, 2014 by Eddie van der Walt

The gold price broke back below $1,350 in early European trading on Wednesday when geopolitical risk shifted to the background and the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting moved to the fore.

Having traded close to $1,390 in recent session, the spot gold price was last at $1,346.05/1,346.80 per ounce, down $9.25 or about 0.7 percent on Monday's close.

"Given the gains this year, the market may well need to spend some time consolidating so we would not necessarily be in a hurry to chase prices higher yet," FastMarkets analyst William Adams said. "But if prices do not need to consolidate for long, that will reconfirm how robust the rally is."
.....
www.fastmarkets.com/bullion-desk-news...

[verwijderd] 19 maart 2014 15:56

Gaan waarschijnlijk weer als een speer terug richting $1200 een mooi moment om weer wat goud in te slaan.

Marcus1970 19 maart 2014 16:39

Ik zie zojuist dat als ik via lynx amerikaanse aandelen in dollars koop ter waarde van bijvoorbeeld USD 5000, dat ik dan een dollarsaldo heb daar van 5000 dollar negatief , dus als de dollar dan flink onderuit gaat loop ik geen enkel valutarisico volgens mij ?

[verwijderd] 19 maart 2014 16:54

Marc zolang je dat negatieve dollarsaldo nooit niet aflost (met euro's) loop je geen valuta risico, je hebt gelijk.

B_B 19 maart 2014 17:00

India allows more banks to import gold in easing of curbs
BY SIDDESH MAYENKAR AND NEHA DASGUPTA
MUMBAI Wed Mar 19, 2014 5:11pm IST

in.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/gol...

[verwijderd] 19 maart 2014 19:42

Voor wie meer bullish is voor goud dan op zilver: www.silverseek.com/article/silver-wil...

[verwijderd] 19 maart 2014 23:03

Waarom doet goud dit? Waarom zo mee kelderen als wall street op z'n bek gaat?

DeZwarteRidder 19 maart 2014 23:04

quote:
Aymen schreef op 19 maart 2014 23:03:
Waarom doet goud dit? Waarom zo mee kelderen als wall street op z'n bek gaat?

Dien een klacht in bij de Consumentenbond.....

voda 19 maart 2014 23:32

quote:
Aymen schreef op 19 maart 2014 23:03:
Waarom doet goud dit? Waarom zo mee kelderen als wall street op z'n bek gaat?

Het "taperen" blijft nog minstens tot december doorgaan.
Geen reden dus dat de aandelen naar beneden gaan, ergo sum, daalt het goud als "veilige haven".

B_B 19 maart 2014 23:53

quote:
Aymen schreef op 19 maart 2014 23:03:
Waarom doet goud dit? Waarom zo mee kelderen als wall street op z'n bek gaat?

- Goud was rijp voor winstnemingen (bijna $200 gestegen).
- Angst voor FED.
- Shorters proberen met een langdurige daling de twijfelende investeerders te overtuigen dat de goud rally vals is.
- Daling van de beurzen ging gepaard met stijging van de rente (10-Year Note Yield) en de dollar, beiden slecht voor de goudprijs.

Alleen de Chinese huisvrouwen en/of Israel kan de goudprijs morgen steunen.

[verwijderd] 20 maart 2014 00:05

Bedankt beiden!

Zlatan2601 21 maart 2014 11:41

Goud in goede doen vandaag, heb ik iets gemist? Iemand een verklaring?

B_B 21 maart 2014 12:46

Gold Trims Weekly Decline as Ukraine Spurs Haven Demand
By Nicholas Larkin and Phoebe Sedgman Mar 21, 2014 10:31 AM GMT+0100

Gold rose for the first time in five days in London, trimming a weekly decline, as concern about the crisis over Ukraine increased demand for a haven. Silver advanced.

Bullion reached a six-month high on March 17 as turmoil over Ukraine left Russia and the West embroiled in their worst confrontation since the Cold War. The European Union followed the U.S. in intensifying sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle to pressure his government to defuse the global standoff.

Gold still headed for the first weekly loss since January after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said this week that interest rates could rise “around six months” after asset purchases end, which is expected later this year. Policy makers cut monthly bond-buying by $10 billion at the conclusion of their two-day meeting, leaving purchases at $55 billion.

“The market is concerned about the development in Russia,” Bernard Sin, head of currency and metal trading at bullion refiner MKS (Switzerland) SA in Geneva, said today by phone. “There is a lot of uncertainty ahead. Gold will be a store of value.”

Bullion for immediate delivery rose 0.8 percent to $1,338.70 an ounce by 9:18 a.m. in London. It reached $1,320.58 yesterday, the lowest since Feb. 28, and is down 3.2 percent this week, the biggest such drop since November. Gold for June delivery gained 0.6 percent to $1,339.10 on the Comex in New York, where futures trading volume was about the average for the past 100 days for this time of day, data compiled by Bloomberg showed.

Ukraine Turmoil

With Russia on the verge of annexing Crimea and massing troops near Ukraine’s eastern border, the U.S. and the EU are moving to coordinate their response as they press Putin to back down. EU leaders added 12 names to their list of Russians and Ukrainians punished with asset freezes and travel bans. The bloc acted a day after the U.S. penalized 20 Russian officials and business leaders as having ties to Putin.

Gold’s recent rally was based on “transient” factors from cold weather in the U.S., China credit concerns and geopolitical tensions, Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s head of commodities research, said in a report.

“While further escalation in tensions could support prices, we expect acceleration in U.S. growth will bring gold prices lower,” he said.

Silver for immediate delivery rose 1.2 percent to $20.4944 an ounce in London, after reaching a one-month low of $20.1456 yesterday. Prices dropped 4.3 percent this week, the most since November. Platinum gained 0.5 percent to $1,439.25 an ounce. Palladium added 0.5 percent to $774 an ounce. Prices reached a one-year high of $785.75 on March 14. Russia is the biggest producer of palladium.

“Platinum-group metals may be affected” by the Ukraine crisis, said Sin of MKS. “People may buy as a protection in case there’s a shortage of supply.”

www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-21/gol...

Brogembank 21 maart 2014 13:01

Eerder vandaag in wat turbo's long goud gestapt; ik vind de uptrend sterk ogen met banken in India die meer goud mogen importeren, de onzekerheden rond Oekraïne en de algeheel stijgende vraag naar edele metalen.

de tijd zal leren of dit wijsheid is.

B_B 21 maart 2014 14:10

Carlyle's commodity arm starts trading new gold and base metals fund
BY BARANI KRISHNAN
Thu Mar 20, 2014 3:25pm EDT

(Reuters) - Vermillion, the commodity arm of U.S. private equity group Carlyle Group LP (CG.O), started trading a new gold and base metals fund this month as it seeks to rebuild market presence after losing more than half of its capital, people familiar with the matter said on Thursday.

In a regulatory filing dated February 14, Vermillion's chief operating officer, Christopher Zuech, said the Aeris Metals Fund had raised $122.5 million from 23 investors in total. The filing did not state the launch date.

Carlyle spokesman Randy Whitestone declined comment.

Aeris, focused on both physical and derivatives trading, is one of the first commodity fund launches of the year, after a tumultuous 2013 when institutional cash left the space to chase a rally in equities. Commodity-focused hedge funds were also roiled by lower volatility last year.
.....
www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/20/us...

[verwijderd] 22 maart 2014 01:34

quote:
voda schreef op 19 maart 2014 23:32:
[...]
Het "taperen" blijft nog minstens tot december doorgaan.
Geen reden dus dat de aandelen naar beneden gaan, ergo sum, daalt het goud als "veilige haven".

Dus blijkbaar kijken beleggers niet verder dan tot het einde van het jaar? Wie ook maar een greintje verstand heeft investeert nu in goudmijnen. En over een paar jaar kassa en verhuizen naar een warm land.

DeZwarteRidder 23 maart 2014 17:50

Goldman: Goud gaat naar 1050 dollar

21 mrt 2014 om 15:00 - IEXProfs Redactie - Gerelateerde onderwerpen: Goldman Sachs, goud, recordprijs goud

Goud was een van de onverwachte sterren op de financiële markten van begin 2014, toen het terugveerde van 1200 naar 1400 dollar per ounce. Misschien stijgt de goudprijs nog wel even door. Maar er zijn geen fundamentele redenen voor een nieuwe rally zoals die van 2001-2012, toen goud gestaag klom van onder de 400 naar 1900 dollar per ounce. De kans is groter dat de goudprijs ergens dit jaar weer gaat dalen en 2014 zal afsluiten op 1050 dollar per ounce.

Dat schrijft Joe Weisenthal op het blog Business Insider. Op zijn beurt baseert Weisenthal zich op een recente publicatie van Goldman Sachs. Volgens de zakenbank is de recente stijging van de goudprijs terug te voeren op drie oorzaken die van korte duur zullen zijn. Eén: de groeivertraging in de VS door de ongenadig harde winter. Twee: Chinezen kochten meer goud als hedge tegen de Chinese schuldenbubbel. Drie: toenemende geopolitieke spanningen.

Geen van drieën zijn het structurele prikkels voor een verdere stijging van de goudprijs. Daar komt bij dat die nu al aan de hoge kant is in relatie tot zijn benchmarks, aldus Goldman. Goud zal verder dalen naar het niveau van de yield op tienjaars TIPS, treasuries met inflatiedekking. Ook de tapering door de Fed zal de goudprijs drukken. Een nieuwe rally à la 2001-2012 ziet Goldman niet gebeuren. Toen klom goud van onder de 400 naar 1900 dollar per ounce.

[verwijderd] 24 maart 2014 22:43

Qua timing zeer de moeite waard om te volgen:
seekingalpha.com/article/2104613-brea...

B_B 25 maart 2014 00:34

Hot Money Runs Back into Gold Futures

Monday, 3/24/2014 20:37
And runs straight out again as the 2014 rebound gets whacked...

Chasing it lower and higher, of course. And getting it wrong both ways.

Last year saw speculative traders take their bearish betting against gold to 15-year records, just as prices hit rock bottom in midsummer. From there, not even the bears made money in gold.

But here in 2014, and with a tidy rebound in gold prices, speculative hedge funds trading futures and options look to have called the turn once again...placing their heaviest bets on gold to go higher just as it had already done that.
Each week, US futures regulator the CFTC gets to know what position big speculators have taken in commodity contracts. The banks, refiners and miners making up the "commercial" side of the industry also spill the beans. Futures brokers have to report what the little guys...the so-called "non-reportables"...are up to, as well.

The data are reported on Tuesdays. And last Monday, the day before these latest figures were taken, gold prices hit a 6-month high...both leading and fed by hot money piling in.

Wednesday however then saw Federal Reserve boss Janet Yellen cough something about raising interest rates from zero, and earlier than the Fed had said before too.

Cue the hot money to get whacked, and get out. Hence the rush of escaping air from gold prices over the last week. Because a big chunk of that peak at $1392 came from hedge funds and other leveraged speculators betting with borrowed money.

Overall by last Tuesday, positioning data say, speculative traders in gold futures and options had hiked their bullish betting...both gross and net of the group's bearish bets...to the highest level since November 2012.

More urgently, they've clawed back half of the pre-crash peak, starting back in October 2012 when the 2013 dive got started.

And most importantly short-term, the net spec long...including the 'doctors and dentists' of small-time private traders...had grown for 11 of the last 12 weeks.

Such a long-lived run of bullish betting is unheard of, at least since January 2005. Yes, it marks a huge turnaround in sentiment on gold. But only amongst hot-money traders betting on credit. People buying and selling for full payment remain cautious, if better-disposed to buy gold than in late 2013.

The big SPDR Gold Trust for instance, the largest exchange-traded gold fund, has only crawled back to mid-December's level of bullion holdings, owning 816 tonnes to back the value of its shares. Here at BullionVault, the world's largest physical gold and silver exchange online, users as a group were net sellers at the peak last week, buying back on the following drop.

Buying gold we think is a smart idea. Chasing the price up...and then down...with gold futures and options is less clever. But it remains an ever-popular way of losing money for aggressive hedge funds and their formerly wealthy clients.

goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold-hedge-...

Analisten (Goldman Sachs etc.) zijn negatief over goud en hedge funds verlaten goud (weer).
Ik verwacht nog steeds minimaal 30% stijging dit jaar.
De Chinezen bepalen dit jaar de goudprijs (niet de analisten, niet de hedge funds, niet de dollar, niet de treasury yield en niet de FED).

B_B 25 maart 2014 08:38

3/24/2014 @ 2:08PM 185 views
Gold Options Expiry Approaches; Traders Eye Open Interest At $1,300 And Above

(Kitco News) – Traders and analysts see potential for market activity related to approaching mid-week options expiration to have some effect on gold futures, although views are mixed on the impact.

Some see potential for pressure on gold over the next two days due to the large number of open interest for strikes in April options at $1,300 an ounce, while others say there could be support at the $1,325-$1,335 area due to other options-related factors. Around 1 p.m. EDT, April gold was at $1,311.60 an ounce.

It goes without saying, of course, that if a major news event breaks or significant chart point is breached to trigger buy or sell stops, the futures in any commodity market likely would make a move irrespective of what options positioning might otherwise imply.

The consensus was for little nearby influence on silver futures from the options market, with the largest number of open interest at the $22 strike, far from current prices.

Expiration of April options for gold and silver is scheduled for Wednesday.

A call option gives the holder the right to call, or buy, a specific futures contract at an agreed-upon price during the life of the option. A put gives the holder the right to sell a specific futures contract at an agreed-upon price.

Preliminary data for Friday show that the number of open positions for puts in April gold options was 99,850. Open interest in calls was 116,244.

Large Open Interest At $1,300 Strike

There were 5,717 puts and 3,526 calls at $1,300, which held more open interest than any other nearby strike prices. This could result in some downward pressure toward the strike since it’s below current prices, said James Ramelli, trader with KeeneOnTheMarket.com, which focuses on options.

“One of the things we always look at is how much the market is implying the underlying (futures) can move by expiration,” he said. “This time around, by expiration in a couple of days, they are still implying that gold could move as much as $15. So if we see pressure to the downside, that would put us right around the $1,300 region.”

A commodity tends to gravitate toward an area with significant options open interest due to something called “pinning,” he explained. The same occurs in equities, he added.

Those who don’t want to see the market above $1,300, in this instance, might turn sellers in the futures, wanting to see the options they sold expire worthless, he explained.

Additionally, if the market were above $1,300 as of expiration, call holders would be left with a futures contract they didn’t want.

“So going into expiration, to cover their position, they either sell the calls or sell futures against it. That also puts pressure,” Ramelli explained.

Conversely, if it appears the market might be below $1,300, those with puts might have to buy the futures. “That’s what causes pins (to certain strike prices),” he said.

George Gero, precious-metals strategist with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures, said he has observed selling in the futures and buying of out-of-the-money calls over the last week. He looks for those out-of-the-money calls to expire without being exercised.

Like Ramelli, Gero said some selling is likely occurring from options traders who do not want to take on a futures contract due to factors such as margin calls, which is collateral to hold a futures position. “They’re selling ahead,” he said.

Others Eye Strike Levels Above $1,300

While there might be more options open interest at $1,300, others see details of the open interest data above that strike price that leaves them anticipating potential support for the futures from the expiration.

The bulk of the price action in the futures since late February has been between roughly $1,320 and $1,350, pointed out Jim Comiskey, senior account executive with Archer Financial Services. The futures market at one point edged above $1,390 and has also been below $1,320.

“But the bulk of the work we’ve done while these options have been trading hot and heavy in the gold was from basically $1,320 to $1,350,” Comiskey said. “So my opinion is we’re going to migrate back up into the $1,330-35 area ahead of expiration….You’ve had stronger hands scooping up the metal. They account for the bulk of the (recent new) open interest in those strikes.”

Sterling Smith, futures specialist with Citi Institutional Client Group, said there are a fairly large number of put options above $1,300 compared to what might normally be expected. Up to the $1,350 strike, put options are comparable to call options, he continued. Normally, more call options than put options might be expected at these levels, he said.

“Given the large number of put options, that will create influences that I think might prove to be a little bit more bullish than we normally might see,” Smith said. This could help gold move toward say $1,325, he said. “It depends on volatility over the next two or three days.”
.....

www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2014/0...

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