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Hulskof
0
quote:

Tom3 schreef op 8 februari 2024 11:39:

seekingalpha.com/news/4062396-investo...

Waarom Merus wel tot de kanshebbers dit jaar wordt gerekend en Arrowhead niet ontgaat me.
Merus werd ook genoemd als niet-kanshebber... Foutje?

Merus was seen as most likely to overperform this year, followed by Sarepta (SRPT), Apellis (APLS), Axsome (AXSM) and Biohaven (BHVN). On the flip side, Arrowhead (ARWR) was picked as most likely to underperform, along with Apellis, Ionis (IONS), Sarpeta and Merus, TD Cowen said.

Van Merus weet ik niks, maar welke koerstriggerende data worden er van Arrowhead dit jaar verwacht? Longdata in Q4 misschien, al zou het me niks verbazen als dat pas Q1 volgend jaar wordt (CA heeft er intussen een handje van om de boel te vertragen).

En P3 data van APOC in FCS is interessant.
Verder zal het afhangen of CA nu eindelijk eens wat partnershipdeals weet te sluiten en hoe ze de CVOT voor APOC of ANG3 gefinancierd krijgen.
Hulskof
0
quote:

de tuinman schreef op 8 februari 2024 16:11:

Phase 3 studie zal toch belangrijk zijn. Grote boost als die ok is.
Zeker als de FCS markt veel groter blijkt te zijn dan tot nog toe gedacht.
Ik lees hier en daar 70.000 tot 100.000 patiënten. Geen idee in hoeverre dat klopt.
Pjotr
0
quote:

DeZwarteRidder schreef op 12 februari 2024 09:06:

Viking Therapeutics doet het bijzonder goed.
klopt! Ik volg dit aandeel al een tijd. Mooie winst inmiddels.
Piddy
0
Off topic
De tuinman : bestaat er echt goed middel tegen mollen in de tuin? Graag antwoordje op GRTS draadje om hier geen extra vervuiling te bekomen.Bedankt !
de tuinman
1
quote:

Hulskof schreef op 14 februari 2024 08:35:

Eindelijk een nieuwe website. Ziet er nu tenminste wat eigentijdser uit.

arrowheadpharma.com/
Veel duidelijker. Binnenkort uitslagen op het gebied van de longen?
DeZwarteRidder
1
quote:

DeZwarteRidder schreef op 12 februari 2024 09:06:

Viking Therapeutics doet het bijzonder goed.
Vandaag plus ca 93%.

Blijkbaar hebben ze goud aangeboord.
nb
0
Hulskof
2
quote:

Piddy schreef op 28 februari 2024 19:29:

Wat gebeurt er ?
Succes alvast!
Kennelijk weer geklets over een overnamebod van 45 dollar. Wat een grap.
Straks waarschijnlijk weer als vertrouwd omlaag, want 45 dollar is om te janken zo laag.
Tom3
0
quote:

Hulskof schreef op 28 februari 2024 19:40:

[...]

Kennelijk weer geklets over een overnamebod van 45 dollar. Wat een grap.
Straks waarschijnlijk weer als vertrouwd omlaag, want 45 dollar is om te janken zo laag.
De beurs lust er inmiddels wel pap van. Inleidende geruchten om de prijs op te drijven? Het Ablynx scenario staat me nog helder voor de geest. 45 dollar is natuurlijk veel te weinig. Het dubbele svp.
Piddy
0
Ik voel me klein beetje daganalist na mijn advies om vooral ARWR bij te kopen op GRTS draadje.
Geen idee natuurlijk maar anderzijds wel logisch gevolg.
Laat het vuur hier maar even in de pan.
Goed voor heel de sector.
Hulskof
1
quote:

Tom3 schreef op 28 februari 2024 20:05:

[...]

De beurs lust er inmiddels wel pap van. Inleidende geruchten om de prijs op te drijven? Het Ablynx scenario staat me nog helder voor de geest. 45 dollar is natuurlijk veel te weinig. Het dubbele svp.
Ik zou 90 ook nog veel te weinig vinden. Dan liever een jaar of 2 wachten voor 150.
de tuinman
0
quote:

Tom3 schreef op 28 februari 2024 20:05:

[...]

De beurs lust er inmiddels wel pap van. Inleidende geruchten om de prijs op te drijven? Het Ablynx scenario staat me nog helder voor de geest. 45 dollar is natuurlijk veel te weinig. Het dubbele svp.
Morphosys..
Piddy
3
AUB

BBS mail

It's been a while since my last email, and I wanted to chime in with my opinion on the latest action with Arrowhead. As you may have heard, there was a rumor that Arrowhead rejected a buyout offer of $45/share from a US-based pharmaceutical company. There were additional rumors that the offer came from Amgen. This should explain the reason for the movement in price this last week, and I suspect that this particular rumor (one of the strongest rumors the company has experienced to date) may continue on and off for the next couple of weeks.

So why the possible buyout offer? I think it's because of what Arrowhead revealed in its slide deck at the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference in early January, where Arrowhead revealed that its phase 3 trial with Plozasiran for FCS is not only targeting the <1,000 genetic FCS patients in the US, but also 70,000 - 100,000 patients with triglycerides >880mg/dl and history of pancreatitis. I understand that the phase 3 trial is about split between these two different patient population types. This substantial increase in patient population would not only greatly increase Arrowhead's revenue potential, but it would also, most likely, make Ionis's drug for FCS (Olezarsen) obsolete (not just on effectiveness, but also on price), as Ionis's drug will most-likely only be approved for the <1,000 genetic FCS patient population. How this will actually play out remains to be seen.
ir.arrowheadpharma.com/static-files/1...

I spoke to a number of people regarding the rumor, and I received many responses regarding what a potential good selling price would be. The range was between $65 - $200/share ($8B - $20B), with the average coming in the middle at around $120/share ($15B), and I'm fully on board with those that are in the middle, and here's why:

First off, I don't think Arrowhead wants to get acquired at all. The short-term (i.e. 5 years) potential is pretty massive; there is no reason this stock, given success with the current pipeline, should not reach a $20B market cap within that time. By that time Arrowhead should not only have 3 approved drugs (Plozasiran, Fazirsiran, Zodasiran), with significant data and advancement in pulmonary, muscle, adipose tissue, and its other liver targets (complement mediated diseases).

Secondly, Arrowhead's platform is the goose that lays the golden eggs. There are still dozens of more targets to go after, and each in a number of different tissues. This is not a typical biotech and I don't think it will fetch a typical biotech buyout.

Third, Arrowhead's R&D department is literally second to none. Over the last 5 years they have been able to introduce as many new drugs into the clinic as Alnylam, Novo Nordisk (Dicerna), and Silence COMBINED. Additionally, whenever there were any competing drugs, Arrowhead's knock-down data outperformed the competition at every turn [A1AT, HBV, Lp(a), Apoc3, Angptl3). A stat like this does not get overlooked, and Arrowhead knows this, and again, this is another reason why any buyout would have to be at a premium, as compared to a typical biotech buyout.

Fourth, Arrowhead has a brand new, massive manufacturing facility that is scheduled to go online next month. This is a huge deal and it will save Arrowhead not only a significant amount of time in drug development (18-24 month savings in time due to the backlog at Contract Manufacturing Organizations (CMOs)), but also in costs. This manufacturing facility received significant tax breaks, and is located in Verona, WI, next to farmland and where the cost of living is very low, thereby significantly reducing the cost to manufacture drugs, as compared to Alnylam.

Fifth, Arrowhead's Sales & Marketing team is being assembled, and has been hiring over the last year. They are on top of the latest developments and I understand that they have already been actively reaching out to providers.

Sixth, competition is much better than what most other biotech companies have to deal with. We all know that not only does RNAi work, but that it works incredibly well, in pretty much 100% of the patients, with minimal side effects. You can almost call it a wonder drug, as it's a genetically targeted drug that simply switches off genes to silence offending proteins.

Seventh, Arrowhead's corporate culture is amazing. Arrowhead now proudly posts its values on its website (https://arrowheadpharma.com/about/), as Chris has been guiding these 10 core values with his employees for a long time. I must have personally met at least 3-4 dozen Arrowhead employees over the last 6 years and they are some of the most enthusiastic, dedicated employees that are eager to be incredibly successful and the best out there.

Eighth, Arrowhead has all the intangibles to become a behemoth of a Big Pharma, and I'm pretty sure management knows this very, very well. I strongly suspect that the desire from the employees is to allow them to build out their drugs to approval on their own, and without getting bought out. Arrowhead pride is evident in their culture, and anything short of a "more than fair" buyout would be very, very disappointing.

The negatives: 1) Arrowhead's future financial position is a bit questionable. Despite the latest $450M raise, Arrowhead will most-likely still need to raise more capital before achieving profitability with its drug sales. We have heard plenty of talk on future partnerships, CVOT (cardiovascular outcome trial) financing deal, and milestones, but no new yet; and 2) Arrowhead is still undecided about which drug they intend to advance for a CVOT trial, and in the meantime, the drug isn't getting any younger - the sooner they can commit and get started, the better.

So what's a "more than fair" buyout? Assuming that drug development and trials are proceeding without issue, I really can't imagine a current sale below $15B. I know that many of you reading this would take much less, but I'm certain that if you were part of the company (especially over the last 6 years), you would probably change your mind. If, by some chance, Arrowhead were to be acquired for $15B, I am certain that the acquirer would greatly benefit over at least the next couple of decades, as they're not just buying a pipeline of drugs, and a full-fledged mfg. facility, they're buying one of the best biotech teams out there versed on the latest and greatest in genetic drug development (which we all know is the future of medicine).

On a side note, I dropped my son off in Madison yesterday after he visited over the weekend and I drove by the Verona facility on my way home. Most of the construction outside is now complete; it looks like just some cleanup, grass, and bushes are left. I snapped the night photo below. The facility looks incredibly impressive.

If you have any questions or comments, please let me know, as I'm always happy to hear from you.

Kindest regards,
Robert
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