SNSN schreef op 16 december 2013 15:17:
[...]
The nature and timing of our “mid-term” trading pattern is based on risk-return optimization at given price/volume distributions (see last week writings).
Take a look, for instance, at 2 month daily graph. You’ll see that :
- within 4 days (Oct. 17-22) one could buy ~90 M within the range: ~2.18-2.25
- within 7 days (Oct. 23-31) one could buy ~60 M within the range: ~2.25-2.35
So, the max volume could be bought in the range ~2.18-2.25-2.35 was ~150 M
- within 8 days (Nov. 10-19) one could sell ~50 M within the range: ~2.44-2.50 (strategic technical resistance zone - see old writings)
At the average traded volume on the way down ~10-12 M/day, the rest of 100 M could be sold with reasonable profit within ~17-20 days above ~2.25
So, one can easy find that today is the 19th day after Nov. 19, and not too much time left to go .....
Taking into account that ~25 M shares were bought (Oct. 17) within the range: ~2.180-2.225 - one could still count on some profit even under ~2.25 ....
Actual trading strategy by small/mid-size prof parties was a trivial technical risk-reward optimization. Of course, this is a very rough picture - one should not forget shorters and many other “trading effects” (like selling & buying by the same parties, etc.)