ASML « Terug naar discussie overzicht

quote:

V-Ram schreef op 8 juli 2015 17:53:

Apple bereidt een recordproductie voor, voor zijn nieuwe serie iPhones. Wellicht een interessant verhaal, omdat Apple z'n chips toch bij TSMC laat maken en ASML onlangs nog 'diepgaande' gesprekken met hen voerde over EUV-machines. Ok, de namen van de klanten werden niet genoemd, maar ik ga ervan uit dat die twee Samsung en TSMC waren. Ondanks dit bericht Apple nu -1,7%. Alle andere techfondsen trouwens ook (NXP -5%!, Intel -2%, BESI +2% vanochtend en -0.45% gesloten). Daling is duidelijk sectorgerelateerd. Denk dat de omzetwaarschuwing van AMD de angst heeft aangewakkerd dat de outlook voor de techsector in Q3 en Q4 zullen tegenvallen.

quote:

Challange schreef op 8 juli 2015 18:08:

[...]

dus nog meer daling in het verschiet....)-; op dit moment in new york 87,97

quote:

SNSN schreef op 8 juli 2015 19:01:

The 'asml' depends not only on "chip makers"...., there are some basic (strategic) problems for asml as a part of "producer-consumer chain".

Since 'asml' does not produce "commodity" (that could be consumed by "stat-population" directly), it depends on a long-chain of "sectors-producers-consumers". People just don't need chip-making machines, they also don't need "chips" (smaller, or bigger - doesn't matter). People also don't need new advanced phones, computers, other chip-based devices if new advanced services can't be delivered (for instance, by telcos for phone/computer users).

So, all chain components - comps & electronic builders, and even more important - telcos (as cervices are more flexible) must have really bright prospects... Though, even if there is a certain (standard) "demand retardation" effect between chain-parts (also "sectors rotation" principle in financial markets), the current situation is not so bright within almost all chains (mainly because of broken basic relations between highly overvalued financial markets and real economy).

However, the 'asml-chain" has extra problems (actually it's exposed to extra risks), as the future of service provides, for instance, telcos is constrained by extra factors - not just by the state of real economy, but also by artificial (not market based) reg-constraints. For instance, eu-telcos just don't have space for further investments at current inefficient industry & sector structures (artificially constrained by the reg in addition to basic market constraints due to state of real economy).

Thus, one can expect a "strategic" delay in a need for new advanced devices (with new advanced chips produced by new advanced machines), as the services will not provide new advanced opportunities for end-users/consumers...

quote:

SNSN schreef op 8 juli 2015 19:01:

The 'asml' depends not only on "chip makers"...., there are some basic (strategic) problems for asml as a part of "producer-consumer chain".

Since 'asml' does not produce "commodity" (that could be consumed by "stat-population" directly), it depends on a long-chain of "sectors-producers-consumers". People just don't need chip-making machines, they also don't need "chips" (smaller, or bigger - doesn't matter). People also don't need new advanced phones, computers, other chip-based devices if new advanced services can't be delivered (for instance, by telcos for phone/computer users).

So, all chain components - comps & electronic builders, and even more important - telcos (as cervices are more flexible) must have really bright prospects... Though, even if there is a certain (standard) "demand retardation" effect between chain-parts (also "sectors rotation" principle in financial markets), the current situation is not so bright within almost all chains (mainly because of broken basic relations between highly overvalued financial markets and real economy).

However, the 'asml-chain" has extra problems (actually it's exposed to extra risks), as the future of service provides, for instance, telcos is constrained by extra factors - not just by the state of real economy, but also by artificial (not market based) reg-constraints. For instance, eu-telcos just don't have space for further investments at current inefficient industry & sector structures (artificially constrained by the reg in addition to basic market constraints due to state of real economy).

Thus, one can expect a "strategic" delay in a need for new advanced devices (with new advanced chips produced by new advanced machines), as the services will not provide new advanced opportunities for end-users/consumers...

quote:

alex2448 schreef op 8 juli 2015 23:19:

als het zo door gaat blijft er niets meer van asml over

quote:

Challange schreef op 9 juli 2015 09:41:

Nico PR Bakker ?@TheDailyTurbo 23 min.23 minuten geleden
Nico PR Bakker heeft Nourredean geretweet
ASML start met witte candle na de swing -9, incl. Morning Star, dus rebound naar 95 is haalbaar, nu 89,90...

quote:

V-Ram schreef op 8 juli 2015 20:59:

[...]

Ook mee eens, maar kijk naar de lange termijn doelen op het gebied van technologie. In de jaren '20 van deze eeuw: zelfrijdende auto's, intelligente robots, holografische tv etc. Ik geloof wel dat consumenten hier behoefte aan hebben. Deze keten begint de chip. Natuurlijk hangt het van de software en programmering af hoe je het maximale uit zulke geavanceerde hardware haalt, maar ik zie wel een nieuwe markt. Als de economische groei doorzet de komende jaren, krijgen consumenten eindelijk weer de koopkracht die de behoefte stimuleert.

quote:

SNSN schreef op 9 juli 2015 10:44:

[...]

Right....

That's why on "strategic" horizons (from ~10 y) we'll face really new technologies - "quantum chip", "quantum computing", etc. ....(not EUV)

On just mt/lt-horizons (where necessary consolidation within telco-sectors is essential, though practically impossible due to reg-constraints)....:

"IBM Reports Advances In Shrinking Future Chips"

"....The Dutch company ASML Holding NV develops EUV tools, which can cost $150 million compared with about $50 million for other lithography systems...."

So far, without new "strategic investments" in telcos advanced cervices & technologies (i.e. without consolidated telcos sector) the prob is really very high that .... all new "very small", "very nice, "very fast" and even "very advanced" phones, comps, etc. would become just a very expensive kind of (new) toys....(just for "children")

As for shorter horizon: the st-resistance is at ~91.20 (formed on Jul 7)

Intraday trading: PP= 88.79
Resistance: R1=89.34; R2=90.28; R3=90.80; R4=91.90

PS. As 'asml' is highly correlated with 'aex' ("beta"~1.73), the "market trends" are important for correct ex-ante risk-return trade-off evaluations:

The market/aex is in the mt-downtrend since last Mar. We are testing the lower edge of relatively wide descending channel, which is currently ~460. The upper edge is around ~495 today. That is a standard upwards "border reaction" may be expected (in order to keep current drift, should there be no new objective info)

Due to high correlations, the same upwards "border reaction" was necessary for 'asm' which just tested the s-zone ~88.30-86.70 (see recent posts)

quote:

Prince Meander schreef op 9 juli 2015 11:38:

Hedgefondsen weer uitgespeeld. Als je gewoon bent blijven zitten heb je hiervan geen centje pijn gehad.
De weg omhoog nu weer open!

Woensdag halfjaarcijfers ASML die er weer fantastisch uit zien!!
Vanaf nu tot woensdag, in zeer korte tijd, sterke koersstijging naar E110!
Een koerssprong tot woensdag van 4% per dag is zeer waarschijnlijk

En is nog maar een schijntje van wat gaat komen; ASML koers hoort E120 te zijn
Nu erbij zijn!!!!