Exane rapport van 21 oct 15
zeg er maar even bij dat BNP gisteren al gelijk koop advies gaf voor TT, maar hier moet je even het onderscheid zien tussen BNP ( de Traders) en Exane ( de analisten)
Q3 in line, beware of OPEX Hikes in 2016
at 9,40 euro we set our new target price at 11,50 euro ( target price -4%)
we remain outperform for 2016 , upside 22%
TT was broadly in line, gross margin 60bp ahead of consensus , offset by opex 2% ahead ( marketing expenses specifically )
all numbers in line ( contrasting with Garmin's stark warning last week ) , TT reiterated its guidance for 1 bio revenue FY15 , with an adjusted EPS of 20cts , of note is euro 0,13 in year-to-date deferred earnings , multi year licensing revenue ( particularly in real time traffic) ramps up, ongoing.
Licensing and Automotive beat offset by TEMPORARY shortfall in Telematics hardware
TT's consumer revenue PND was a little ahead of consensus, which was a nice achievement.
sports revenue ( watches, camera's) was light due to the delay in new watch releases, the previous guided doubling in revenue to 100 mio seems a bit of a long shot.
this weakness was offset by TT's over-exposure on EU for PND, declinig only 8% compared to US - 20% yoy with increasing ASPs ( positive mix effects)
Licensing doing good and continues to surprise positively, while Telematics hardware fell sequentially, against all expectations, as it now appears TT shipped too high a quantity into the distribution channel, the overhang was absorbed by September and Q4 should return to normal growth patterns.
we moderate our expectations ( slightly) - OPEX Hikes ahead in Automotive
the strong revenue growth prediction for TT's Automotive is been reiterated, but Management flagged the related OPEX hike ( customisations) this may negate most of the operating leverage in this biz next year, hence our moderation in margin progression and the related EPS cuts
Our DFC now points to 11 euro/ SOTP 12 euro, leading to our value of 11,50 ( from 12)
TT remains an interesting stock for 2016 , but now with less attractive near-term operating leverage than we previously envisaged.
TT outperform 11,50 euro for 2016
dan wederom een cijferaanpassing
en dan nu even van de INVESTMENT kant gezien ( BNP)
TT has significant development potential in Telematics and Automotive: both biz can double in revenue with high gross margin and significant proportion of content/services and recurring revenue.
The stock offers solid exposure to the connected car theme trought the VALUABLE MAPS ASSET
en dan een mathematische uitleg hoe te waarderen en een valuation methodology.
OK zoals reeds eerder aangegeven 12 euro voor de komende 6 maand well possible, buy dips en succes !