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Turkish scrap prices soften on fresh bookings
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Activity in the Turkish scrap market has resumed post-Eid holiday.

A Marmara long steel mill bought two cargoes, from the EU and the US on Monday. The US cargo comprises HMS 1&2 85:15 at $381/tonne, and shredded and bonus at $399/t cfr, with HMS 1&2 80:20 corresponding to $378.5/t cfr Turkey. The European cargo was concluded at around $369/t cfr for HMS 1&2 80:20.

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U coil mills reduce prices in contract talks

In contract negotiations for coil supply in the second half-year, the positions of mills and buyers have come closer together. Mills have actually made concessions after first asking prices were rejected across the market.

The main factor for prices in such negotiations is the comparison with the figures struck last time, of course also taking into consideration the current spot market level. In June, the initial offer from mills was to ask for €100/tonne ($108) on top of the prices achieved in December/January talks for H1 2023.

Buyers dismissed that claim, in view of the overall lull in the market and given spot prices continued their downward trend. The asking price was “totally unrealistic and without reason”, one buyer at a German processor tells Kallanish.

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Indian HRC production shortage offsets prevailing sluggish sentiment

Recent breakdowns experienced at two major Indian mills, coupled with a planned shutdown, have eased excess supply of hot rolled coil in India. In fact, market participants tell Kallanish they calculate there will be a supply shortage from Indian mills of at least 150,000-200,000 tonnes.

"A major steel company in India faced issues at its blast furnace operations, which lasted for 5-7 days; it coincided with their planned shutdown, and at the same time another steel company also underwent the same kind of breakdown at its operations, which summed up to a production loss of around 150,000t of HRC," a reliable company source informs.

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China's Iron Ore Imports, Boosted by Surging Steel Output

In a reflection of robust demand from domestic steelmakers, China witnessed a 7.4% increase in iron ore imports in June compared to the same period last year, as revealed by customs data on Thursday.
The world's largest consumer of iron ore imported 95.52 million metric tons of this vital steelmaking ingredient last month, surpassing the 88.97 million metric tons recorded in June 2022, according to the General Administration of Customs.

(ingekort)

Bron Steelguru, via mail
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Buyers lower bids for Iranian billet
Due to softening US-origin scrap and Russian-origin billet import quotes in Turkey, reduced Chinese billet prices, and weak Thailand and Indonesian market dynamics, traders are preparing to lower bids for September-readiness billet tenders in Iran.

US-origin HMS 80:20 scrap is now at $355/tonne cfr Turkey, Russian billet offers to Turkey at $480/t cfr Iskenderun port, and Chinese 150mm 5sp grade billet to the Philippines at $515/t cfr. This will spur traders to bid lower in Iran’s billet tenders next week, Kallanish notes.

(ingekort, zie link)

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Tata Steel bekijkt omsmelten schroot tot staal, vrees banenverlies
THEO BESTEMAN

Aangepast: Gisteren, 21:02 Gisteren, 20:55 in FINANCIEEL

AMSTERDAM - Tata Steel Nederland bekijkt of het op een heel andere manier staal kan gaan maken. Personeel vreest voor banenverlies in IJmuiden.

Naast de eerder gewenste staalproductie met schone waterstof, eerst van aardgas en vervolgens van windenergie, onderzoekt Tata het omsmelten van schroot.

Vakbond FNV keert zich tegen die route. Bestuurder Cihan Lacin noemt de waterstofroute een ’must’. Personeel vreest anders kwaliteitsverlies en ziet werkgelegenheid verdwijnen als bedrijven milieuvriendelijk staal eisen.

De productie van staal met waterstof, dat anders dan het maken van ruwijzer uit ijzererts met kolenverhitting geen CO2 uitstoot, heeft sinds 2021 de voorkeur. De staalmaker is met 7% van alle uitstoot in Nederland de grootste vervuiler. De directie kijkt bij een serie milieuboetes ook tegen een serie rechtszaken aan na overtredingen van milieunormen.

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www.telegraaf.nl/financieel/125899808...
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Chinese domestic HRC price touches 3-month high

As the government said it would start to promote economic recovery from the private sector last week, the market mood has been boosted to a certain extent. This has pushed up Chinese hot rolled coil prices, Kallanish notes.

In Shanghai on Friday afternoon, 5.5x1,500mm Q235 hot rolled coil was traded at around CNY 3,930-3,950/tonne ($547-550/t), up CNY 60/t from a week earlier and touching the highest level since late April. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most-traded October 2023 contract for HRC gained CNY 46/t from Thursday and CNY 59/t from a week ago to CNY 3,933/t.

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Global output flatlines in June despite Indian surge

Global crude steel output was flat on-year in June at 158.8 million tonnes, with most regions seeing growth except for Europe and South America, Kallanish notes from worldsteel data. Production was down 1% versus May.

Chinese steel output inched up 0.4% on-year to 91.11mt, while Indian production surged 13% to 11.2mt. However, Japanese and South Korean output fell 1.7% and 0.9% respectively to 7.33mt and 5.53mt.

Compared to May, Chinese output rose 1%, while Indian output declined 1%.

EU27 output dropped 11% on-year to 10.6mt in June, driven by an 8.4% drop in German production to 2.93mt. Italian output actually rose 0.7% to 1.91mt. However, Spanish output fell 7% to 940,000t and French output was estimated down 33% to 775,000t.

EU output also fell 7% versus May.

Turkish production fell 1.5% on-year in June to 2.94mt, but rose from 2.88mt in May.

US production inched up 0.5% on-year to 6.8mt, but Brazilian output slumped 12.5% to 2.6mt.

Russian output is estimated to have risen 3.8% to 5.8mt in June.

Crude steel output in the 63 countries monitored by worldsteel thus fell 1.1% on-year in the first half of 2023 to 943.9mt, despite Chinese output rising 1.3% to 535.6mt.

Adam Smith | Poland

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ArcelorMittal slashes consumption growth forecast on US struggles

ArcelorMittal has cut its global ex-China apparent steel consumption (ASC) growth forecast for 2023 to 1-2% from the previous 2-3%, due to worse-than-expected performance in the US, Brazil and Europe, Kallanish notes.

In the US, as real demand growth is expected to remain lacklustre due to the lagged impact of interest rate rises, apparent steel consumption in 2023 is now expected to decline by 0-2% – versus previous guidance of 1.5-3.5% growth. US ASC forecasts have been moderated to reflect weakness in long products and pipes & tubes, whilst apparent demand for flat products is still forecast to grow, the steelmaker says.

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HRC, CRC pricing slides in the US

Pricing for domestically produced steel sheet is weakening in the US, with mills facing slower order flow than they would like, triggering aggressive discounting off their stated offer prices, Kallanish understands from market participants.

The price of hot rolled coil declined to a range of $820-850/short ton, from $870-890/st last week. Cold rolled coil slid to $1,070-1,110/st from $1,190-1,200/st.

US coil production “has so many players and that’s why we’ve seen the price deteriorating in that market,” says one service centre source, emphasizing the competitive environment among the mills.

Depending on mill output levels, cold roll may outperform hot roll for the rest of the year because of automotive-related demand.

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Automotive labour discord may hurt CRC demand, pricing
Prices for cold rolled coil may come under pressure as a result of fresh labour discord in the US automotive industry, Kallanish learns from surveying steel market participants.

Negotiations between the United Auto Workers (UAW) and the three largest automakers got off to an alarming start last week, with the union leadership presenting a long list of demands that General Motors (GM) management immediately complained would be too costly.

“UAW members are thinking big and the Big Three can afford it,” the union says in a statement, noting that Ford, GM and Stellantis reported a combined $21 billion in profit in the first half of 2023.

“Record profits mean record contracts,” UAW president Shawn Fain emphasizes in a Facebook Live message to members.

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US Steel seeks strategic alternatives after M&A offers

US Steel is seeking financial advice from Barclays and Goldman Sachs to explore stragetic alternatives for the 122-year-old Pittsburgh-based company. This development follows an unsolicited acquisition bid by one of US Steel's major competitors, Cleveland-Cliffs (see related story).

"[Our] board and management team are committed to maximising value for our stockholders, and to that end, we have commenced a comprehensive and thorough review of strategic alternatives," says US Steel's president and ceo, David Burritt.

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