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KPN en telecom nieuws(feiten) - Februari 2016

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SpecKlaas
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As for the (overvalued) markets, some (systemic) "rising" could be expected on (systemic) real QE-expansions (not just depo-rates) from ECB (March). That would certainly push Euro further down. So far, ECB just can't implement extra QE at already "too weak" Euro, as "too strong" dollar would hit real US-economy, rising the prob for new recession in US. Actually, recent rising Euro ("hard work" for financials) makes it a bit more probable (realistic) for ECB to act, pushing extra QE a bit further.... However, the only rates at/above ~1,14 would make it really comfortable (for both CBs) to act absolutely differently, but consistently .... "as planned".

Otherwise, (at strong dollars) possible Super Mario's actions are very limited.... by just "unlimited promises".... (resulting in markets attempting restore "natural equilibrium" with real economy...., looking for a better place somewhere further to the south, i.e. towards ~375-300 for 'aex').

That's why almost "randomly revised" recent (Nov, Dec) figures from the US labor market and some inconsistences in partial & cumulative numbers generate just uncertainties (on possible Fed actions), increasing just FX volatility.... (resulting in a lower prob for extra QE-expansions from ECB at "stronger dollars").

So, take care.... , and don't forget to look at fx-rates

PS. Certainly, it's more relevant for overvalued funds with large "betas", highly correlated with markets
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For today: PP=3.466
Resistance: R1=3.537
Support: S1=3.421; S2=3.391; S3=3.349; S4=3.277

The st-support zone is ~3.30-3.32 (formed Dec-Jan)

As you know, diff d-trading strategies usually dominate the first hours... They could roughly be divided over 3 main/large groups.

Though, the 'kpn'-stock has quite a lot of "scalpers" hunting just a few cts.-profit at (very) "tight stops" and large number of trades, there are also quiet enough short/long "trend-followers" (with just a bit diff "stops" structure) ready to "support" any st/d-trend (which is easy to impose by just a bit bigger parties) providing a bit higher profit for much less trades.

At highly negative market sentiment - take a look at 'aex' (overall sentiment) and d-trending since ~9.30 today, one couldn't expect anything different for kpn. Actually the same d-trending for 'kpn' that dropped for ~3% since ~9.30 till ~10.10 at high "positive d/st-correlations" with 'aex'.

Taking into account the structure, objectives & goals of d/st-trading strategies, as well as "st/d-stops" structures, don't forget that there are still just a bit bigger parties that have capacity to impose a "necessary d-trend".... just to optimize their own returns. Don't also forget that the 0.36 Eur div (announced just too earlier) automatically creates (almost) risk-free opportunities (arbitrage trading) for very active parties in current circumstances (lt/mt/st/d-downtrending markets - downtrends on all horizons, except just "strategic" one) to get a bit higher profit (indeed, at stock priced ~3.6 the div provides ~10%, while at stock ~3.3 the div-return is just a bit higher, isn't it?).

To get it a bit more clear on the above writing, take a look at p/v/t- distributions (just gives some quant description of above picture):

- within ~09.30 - 10.10 around ~2.95 M were sold out (incl. "shorts" & "stops")

- within ~10.10 - 10.40 around ~3.05 M were "traded back" (closing shorts + new buys) with much high partial volume ~ 1 M per 10 min (!) at much lower price and low volatility (with prof trading in "big blocks" ~100 K - 250 K )

- within ~11.00 - ~14.00 --> "smooth trading" (standard partial volume ~0.2 M per 10 min, and low price volatility)

- since ~14.00 --> "positive correlations" between rising prices and partial volume.

So, business as usual....., just prof "return optimization"....

PS. Markets are begging for extra QEs in Europe..., and "NO" rising rates in the US any more this year (read last week post)

Agatan
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Goedemorgen. Japan - 5%. Het stormachtige weer nog niet over. Maar geldt dat ook voor KPN?

Fijne dag.
SpecKlaas
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Goede morgen. Rode dagen zijn het.
Het lijkt er op dat KPN het steeds een tikkeltje beter doet dan de AEX. Maar dat is dan ook alles.
De grote verwachtingen van KPN zijn na de jaarcijfers wat afgezwakt.
Dit gaat met name over het herstel van de zakelijke markt. Dus ik zie nog niet een stevige positieve correctie op korte termijn.
Agatan
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Mee eens Specklaas, als de volaliteit afzwakt, stappen er vast pensioenfondsen in, al was het maar voor het dividend.

SpecKlaas
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For today: PP=3.366
Resistance: R1=3.435; R2=3.532
Support: S1=3.268; S2=3.20

The st-support zone ~3.32-3.30

Partial volume this morning is quite high ~0.4 M per 10 min, with (prof) trades in "big-blocks" ~120-200K without price-impacts. Though, since ~10.30 the volume is twice lover - just around an average ~0.2 M per 10 min, at almost neutral d-sentiment.

PS. Following pf-policies, their trades usually do not "move markets" (i.e. NO extra volatility - trading with min. possible price-impact, taking into account liquidity, timing, etc.)
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For today: PP=3.295
Resistance: R1=3.351; R2=3.426
Support: S1=3.219

st-support is around ~3.25
Agatan
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Lees net dat noord Korea de hot line met zuid Korea heeft ontmanteld.

Dat zal ook niet positief werken op de beurs.

Kan er ook nog wel bij.

Het lijkt of alle beoogde bodems nog dieper kunnen.

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For today: PP=3.30
Resistance: R1=3.334;
Support: S1=3.248; S2=3.211; S3=3.163

The st-support zone ~3.14-3.16 is just under the R3, reinforcing it. Another good news --> the div-return rising above 11%.... (quite a lot within just a half a year)

The market is testing lt-support zone just around the 'first target' ~375 (read old posts for details).

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Don't worry...., and don't hurry, everything's in due time..., the 'fair value' ~4 as well.

(reading t&c for convert. bonds issue may help a bit in better understanding of lt-timing expectations)

As for markets' timing, fx-rates are approaching that "comfortable zone" starting just above ~1.14 (read recent & last week posts)

PS. As you understand, the Euro rises towards "comfortable zone" (as necessary) not just accidentally.... (read last weeks posts).

SpecKlaas
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KPN blijft vandaag redelijk liggen. Erg goed t.o.v. de AEX in ieder geval. Misschien zit er nog wel een plusje in vandaag.
Eén ding is zeker voor mij. Het dividend en zicht op de fairvalue gaat binnenkort een boost krijgen.

Gewoon blijven zitten met je armen over elkaar en het komt allemaal goed.
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The stock is confirming yesterday "turning point" pattern (see yesterday pots), by developing new bullish reversal signal, most likely --> "dragonfly doji" (if not modified at closing into another bullish reversal formation --> "hammer"). That is within the st-downtrend, and just above the dynamic lt-support --> the lower edge of "systemic" uptrend since Aug 2013.

Compare with that bullish reversal "dragonfly doji" from Jan 20.
SpecKlaas
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Kwetsbaarheid in Vodafone-netwerk maakt gesprekken kopieerbaar

Er zit een kwetsbaarheid in het mobiele netwerk van Vodafone, waardoor een gespreksdeelnemer kan worden "gekopieerd" zonder daarvan op de hoogte te zijn. De unieke identifier voor een telefoonnummer kan zo worden gespoofd. Dat ontdekte PCM met behulp van twee ethische hackers. Vodafone kan de kwetsbaarheid bovendien niet zomaar dichten.

Zie PCMWEB.nl
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