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September 19, 2016, 12:41 P.M. ET
U.S. Steel: When the Facts Change, I Change My Mind
By Ben Levisohn
The back and forth between the bulls and the bears on steel stocks continued today as KeyBanc’s Philip Gibbs upgraded U.S. Steel (X) and AK Steel (AKS) to Sector Weight from Underweight after downgrading it just once month ago. He explains why:
United States Steel Corp. (X, Sector Weight from Underweight): We upgrade shares of U.S. Steel to SW from UW (previous $18 PT) to reflect what we believe is a stronger investor appreciation for near-term and sheet supply/demand risk in ’17. We reduce our ’17 EPS forecast to $0.48 (from $0.65) to reflect higher coal costs ($30/ton of upside from $20/ton) and lower sheet pricing. At the current share price of ~$16, U.S. Steel trades at ~5x EV/EBITDA on our ’17 forecasts vs. a normalized multiple of ~5x despite still-negative EBITDA contribution from its [energy] Tubular business. Key risks include upside to our current ’17 coal cost assumptions, weaker global/domestic demand, lower steel prices (including ’17 automotive contract pricing) and a more delayed recovery in oil & gas markets…
AK Steel Holding Corp. (AKS, Sector Weight from Underweight): We upgrade shares of AK Steel to SW from UW (previous $4 PT) to reflect what we believe is a stronger investor appreciation for near-term and sheet supply/demand risk in ’17. Our ’16 estimate becomes $0.42 (from $0.40) based on lower raw material costs, benefits of lagging galvanized sheet pricing. We reduce our ’17 EPS forecast to $0.54 (from $0.62) to reflect higher coal costs ($30/ton of upside from $20/ton) and lower sheet pricing, partially offset by lower iron ore costs (following the shutdown of Magnetation). At the current share price of ~$4, AK Steel trades at 5.8x EV/EBITDA on our ’17 forecasts vs. a normalized multiple of ~5.5x. Higher valuation vs. that of U.S. Steel reflects higher value-added mix – stainless, grain-oriented steels. Key risks include upside to our current ’17 coal cost assumptions, weaker global/domestic demand, and weaker steel prices (including ’17 automotive contract pricing).