Laura Donnelly, Gordon Rayner 6 hrs ago
Drivers receive a novel coronavirus test at a drive-in COVID-19 testing facility set up at the Chessington World of Adventures Resort, in Chessington, southwest of London, on October 20, 2020. - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was criticised for acting too slowly earlier in the year, favours a strategy of localised lockdowns in England to avoid worsening the historic recession sparked by the outbreak. (Photo by Adrian DENNIS / AFP) (Photo by ADRIAN DENNIS/AFP via Getty Images)
Drivers receive a novel coronavirus test at a drive-in COVID-19 testing facility set up at the Chessington World of Adventures Resort, in Chessington, southwest of London, on October 20, 2020. - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who was criticised for acting too slowly earlier in the year, favours a strategy of localised lockdowns in England to avoid worsening the historic recession sparked by the outbreak. (Photo by Adrian DENNIS / AFP) (Photo by ADRIAN DENNIS/AFP via Getty Images)
Downing Street is privately working on the assumption that the second wave of coronavirus will be more deadly than the first, with the death toll remaining high throughout the winter.
An internal analysis of the projected course of the second wave is understood to show deaths peaking at a lower level than in the spring but remaining at that level for weeks or even months.
It is understood that the projection – provided by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) – has led to intense lobbying from Sir Patrick Vallance and other Government advisers for Boris Johnson to take more drastic action.
Video: Coronavirus in numbers: UK death toll rises by 367 (Press Association)
Play Video
Coronavirus in numbers: UK death toll rises by 367
"It's going to be worse this time, more deaths," said one well-placed source. "That is the projection that has been put in front of the Prime Minister, and he is now being put under a lot of pressure to lock down again."
Separately, Sage has warned that all of England will need to be under Tier 3 Covid-19 restrictions by mid-December scuppering Boris Johnson's hopes for a normal Christmas.
It comes as countries across Europe battle rapidly rising case numbers and prepare to introduce new measures.
Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, is considering restaurant and bar closures and will hold talks with state leaders about additional restrictions on Wednesday.