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MisterBlues
0
quote:

ElTorro schreef op 30 augustus 2021 15:20:


MrBlues, long time no hear. Why the negative reflection.. just @ the point that the stock is receiving some positive news?

Fact that big financial player is going long and seeing future in this stock proves that we are finally seeing some returning market confidence towards BCART.
If on 2nd of September we get more feedback of the fire impact on production and numbers going the right direction, than I see no reason why the stock will go back towards the bottom.


Mijn punten zijn helder en beargumenteerd. Ik ga dingen niet dunnetjes over doen en herhalen. Bovendien ben ik voorbij predicaten als positief en negatief. Ik heb alles verkocht en verlies genomen. Ik weet dat ze de 'oorlog' verloren hebben al zullen ze hier en daar nog een slag winnen.

BioCartis over 6 jaar gezien is een drama en een hele domme belegging gebleken in vergelijking met bijna elk no-nonsense AEX of BEL aandeel. BCart heeft niet geleverd, telkens is er weer iets. Fischer die de verkoop niet goed doet in Amerika, FDA die vertraagt waardoor markt-goedkeuringen niet binnenkomen (en nog steeds niet), een CFO met familieproblemen, een brandje binnen de gelederen... de pandemie waar sommige diagnostische bedrijven wel garen bij sponnen.

Zelfs al zou het nu van de vier naar de zes gaan in komende 2 jaar dan blijft dat punt staan.

De meeste mensen hier zijn meer liefhebbers van bedrijfsvoering en de nieuwe markt voor diagnostische testen dan echte beleggers. FL heeft er naast aandelen ook zoveel tijd in gestoken dat het opmerkelijk wordt. Lees het forum terug en hij kan zo 1000 bladzijden publiceren over BioCartis. Waarom eigenlijk? Zes jaar geleden stond de koers op bijna 10 euro.

Om eerlijk te zijn zou het me niet verbazen als FL een hoge positie heeft als senior-salesman in de markt voor diagnostische testen. Zijn hele manier van doen: mensen welkom heten op het forum, ze inwijden, ze informeren dan wel met ze dialogiseren, hij lijkt er echt op uit je enthousiast te maken, hij maakt je een fan. Hij lijkt meer op online-marketeer en PR-consultant dan op iemand die investeert. Nooit heeft ie het over persoonlijke verliezen die ie maakt of over het dramatische parkoers dat BioCartis heeft afgelegd in afgelopen jaren. Altijd weer gericht op het brengen van hoop - en dat maakt me wantrouwend bij een aandeel dat zonder twijfel underperformer is.

Door verlies te nemen en het overgebleven geld te stoppen in een aandeel dat wel rendeert en still counting heb ik wel rendement. Volgens mij is dat beleggen.

Als je plezier hebt dan is dat natuurlijk ook wat waard. Het is iets anders dan beleggen. Mocht je op 3,5 zijn ingestapt dan heb je natuurlijk ook - voorlopig - een goede belegging.
Stefzele1
0
@MisterBlues, beleggers die onder de €4 aangekocht hebben zullen er wel mooi aan verdienen…
MisterBlues
0
quote:

Stefzele1 schreef op 30 augustus 2021 20:23:


@MisterBlues, beleggers die onder de €4 aangekocht hebben zullen er wel mooi aan verdienen…


@Stefzele1, zeker en dat staat ook in mijn stuk. Het is echter tijdelijk, er zijn nog steeds betere aandelen met minder risico en meer rendement.

Hier dan een prijs vraag: weet iemand hoeveel 'onder 4' onder IPO is? Weet iemand hier op dit forum nog wanneer de IPO was?
CGCDLR
0
2015 aan 11,5€ als ik me niet vergis.Nb op ingetekend maar geen(!) aandelen gekregen omdat het niet bij de begeleidende bank was.??
MisterBlues
1
quote:

CGCDLR schreef op 30 augustus 2021 20:40:


2015 aan 11,5€ als ik me niet vergis.Nb op ingetekend maar geen(!) aandelen gekregen omdat het niet bij de begeleidende bank was.??


We hebben een winnaar! Ik heb nog 1 aandeel BioCartis in mijn portefeuille (als waarschuwing hoe het niet moet). Dat geef ik over 2 jaar aan jou.
Flatlander
1
Wow Mr, Blues you are really living up to your name singing the Blues loudly today. One really has to question why you would continue to hang around and post given that you no longer have a financial stake. You are correct, I'm sitting on a large loss with my BCART position. I've made no secret that thus far, BCART is one of my worst investments. However, if you go back and read my posts I've always maintained that BCART is a highly speculative position. I have managed the position size so it was never more than a couple % of my overall portfolio. As far as being in marketing or sales for a diagnostics consulting company, I can assure you that I do not work in the MDx field. I try to be balanced and not a shill for BCART as witnessed by my outburst a couple weeks ago regarding the ML2 shutdown during a large pickup in the demand for Idylla products. Welcoming new people to the board is simply a means of trying to make someone feel comfortable to post and contribute (whether it is pro or con BCART).

I know you believe that PCR is no longer a relavant technology. Yet many labs continue to have large areas dedicated to PCR. Sanger, pyrosequensing ... still garner a significant number of analyses. Furthermore, emerging markets are likely to be dependent on PCR for the forseeable future. I believe based on publications from a multitude of users that there is synergistic relationship where Idylla can be used in conjuction with NGS. For example, MSK pointed out that Idylla is not prone to false positives, so they use the EGFR results to initiate early treatment on patients that test positive for certain EGFR mutations. This allows them to forgo the NGS testing costs on this segment of the tested population. So they system can be used to initiate faster treatment/prescription uptake and can reduce overall testing costs in this segment of the population.

The reality is disruptive innovation can have long stangnant periods. I've previously used Tesla as an example of this. However, there are many examples. Amazon was founded in 1994 went public in 1997 and produced miniscule SP gains in the first 10 years of public trading, I instead believe it is more productive to reassess my initial investment thesis and critically dissect whether my assumptions still hold or accept if factors have changed in a manner that no longer makes success possible. Hint - I have not made that determination on BCART.

The MDx marketting consultants that you speak of indicate that the Oncology segment is projected to grow at 20% annually, Furthermore, no one platform has a dominant market position. BCART just grew cartridge sales for the 1st half of 2021 at 96% so they are establishing/taking market share at a respectable clip. The platform is well suited for pandemic conditions. It has long shelf life, is available on demand, does not require much space or hands on time from technicians, This makes the system well suited for labs trying to socially distance or meet oncology testing demands on top of a high Covid testing load. There is a reason that University of Naples increased their use of Idylla in the last year relative to NGS, I suspect Credit Suisse sees the same factors as a reason to establish a position.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC...

The reality is disruptive innovation can have long stangnant periods. Personally, I can accept the fact that I'm sitting on BCART position losses. I don't think I could accept realizing the loss by selling out and then have the company go on a multi year run. As I have said before, I beleive this can turn quickly with a few registration approvals and leveraging partner (BMS, AZN, etc) field sales staff to ramp Idylla sales.

MB, Good Luck with your future investments.

FL
CGCDLR
1
Dank u wel,MisterBlues.Ik heb er ondertussen meer dan genoeg.Ik heb na het mislopen van de " in
troductie"dan maar aandelen gekocht, beetje kopen, beetje verkopen.Zo stond ik op een (kleine) winst.In de zomer van 2019 verkocht ik m'n aandelen Galapagos(150+) en investeerde een deel in Biocartis (+-11€). Toen kwamen ze met het lumineuze idee van de obligatie uit te geven en is de koers tot op de dag van vandaag niet vooruit te branden.Sta ik op verlies?Yep.Kan dit verlies goed gemaakt worden? Waarschijnlijk.De Zwitsers geloven er blijkbaar ook nog in.Ik heb 1(schrale) troost, indien ik was blijven zitten in Galapagos was het nu ook huilen met de pet op .
MisterBlues
0
quote:

CGCDLR schreef op 30 augustus 2021 21:40:


Dank u wel,MisterBlues.Ik heb er ondertussen meer dan genoeg.Ik heb na het mislopen van de " in
troductie"dan maar aandelen gekocht, beetje kopen, beetje verkopen.Zo stond ik op een (kleine) winst.In de zomer van 2019 verkocht ik m'n aandelen Galapagos(150+) en investeerde een deel in Biocartis (+-11€). Toen kwamen ze met het lumineuze idee van de obligatie uit te geven en is de koers tot op de dag van vandaag niet vooruit te branden.Sta ik op verlies?Yep.Kan dit verlies goed gemaakt worden? Waarschijnlijk.De Zwitsers geloven er blijkbaar ook nog in.Ik heb 1(schrale) troost, indien ik was blijven zitten in Galapagos was het nu ook huilen met de pet op .


Goed dat je Galapagos bijtijds hebt verkocht. Hoewel ik wel winst heb met dit aandeel bleef ik ten dele te lang zitten. Om die reden ben ik idd gestopt met Biotech. Met ICT-aandelen heb ik wel succes. Weet ik meer van.
MisterBlues
0
quote:

Flatlander schreef op 30 augustus 2021 21:38:


Wow Mr, Blues you are really living up to your name singing the Blues loudly today. One really has to question why you would continue to hang around and post given that you no longer have a financial stake. You are correct, I'm sitting on a large loss with my BCART position. I've made no secret that thus far, BCART is one of my worst investments. However, if you go back and read my posts I've always maintained that BCART is a highly speculative position. I have managed the position size so it was never more than a couple % of my overall portfolio. As far as being in marketing or sales for a diagnostics consulting company, I can assure you that I do not work in the MDx field. I try to be balanced and not a shill for BCART as witnessed by my outburst a couple weeks ago regarding the ML2 shutdown during a large pickup in the demand for Idylla products. Welcoming new people to the board is simply a means of trying to make someone feel comfortable to post and contribute (whether it is pro or con BCART).

I know you believe that PCR is no longer a relavant technology. Yet many labs continue to have large areas dedicated to PCR. Sanger, pyrosequensing ... still garner a significant number of analyses. Furthermore, emerging markets are likely to be dependent on PCR for the forseeable future. I believe based on publications from a multitude of users that there is synergistic relationship where Idylla can be used in conjuction with NGS. For example, MSK pointed out that Idylla is not prone to false positives, so they use the EGFR results to initiate early treatment on patients that test positive for certain EGFR mutations. This allows them to forgo the NGS testing costs on this segment of the tested population. So they system can be used to initiate faster treatment/prescription uptake and can reduce overall testing costs in this segment of the population.

The reality is disruptive innovation can have long stangnant periods. I've previously used Tesla as an example of this. However, there are many examples. Amazon was founded in 1994 went public in 1997 and produced miniscule SP gains in the first 10 years of public trading, I instead believe it is more productive to reassess my initial investment thesis and critically dissect whether my assumptions still hold or accept if factors have changed in a manner that no longer makes success possible. Hint - I have not made that determination on BCART.

The MDx marketting consultants that you speak of indicate that the Oncology segment is projected to grow at 20% annually, Furthermore, no one platform has a dominant market position. BCART just grew cartridge sales for the 1st half of 2021 at 96% so they are establishing/taking market share at a respectable clip. The platform is well suited for pandemic conditions. It has long shelf life, is available on demand, does not require much space or hands on time from technicians, This makes the system well suited for labs trying to socially distance or meet oncology testing demands on top of a high Covid testing load. There is a reason that University of Naples increased their use of Idylla in the last year relative to NGS, I suspect Credit Suisse sees the same factors as a reason to establish a position.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC...

The reality is disruptive innovation can have long stangnant periods. Personally, I can accept the fact that I'm sitting on BCART position losses. I don't think I could accept realizing the loss by selling out and then have the company go on a multi year run. As I have said before, I beleive this can turn quickly with a few registration approvals and leveraging partner (BMS, AZN, etc) field sales staff to ramp Idylla sales.

MB, Good Luck with your future investments.

FL


Ik mis hier zoals gewoonlijk bij jou het perspectief van de belegger. Amazone maakte de eerste tien jaar weinig onkosten en toen het begon te lopen hield omzetgroei ook niet meer op vanwege de schaalbaarheid. Het is onzinnig Amazone te vergelijken met BCART.

Opkomende landen? China is nauwelijks geïnteresseerd in PCR. Opkomende landen die het wel zijn willen het 'cheap'. Dat is niet waar je echt winst kan maken? Dat is Amerika en daar is de boot gemist. Helaas.

Verder zeg ik ook niet dat er in in beperkte mate geen rol is weggelegd voor PCR! Hoe lang wil je nog horen over enige groeiversnelling terwijl je enorme groeiversnelling nodig hebt om rendabel te worden als BCART.

Het is gewoon een slechte businesscase terwijl het wel een fascinerende markt is. Dat dan weer wel.

Flatlander
2
MB,
Amazon was chosen to point out that even the most successful disruptor companies go through long drought periods. Somehow the case does not resonate as well if I choose an obscure company, Cepheid is much closer to BCART in business model and it is my favorite analog. Strangely enough many of Danaher's (Cepheid's parent Co) earning reports cite strong growth in emerging markets. I'll agree that China does not make sense if the cartridges are manufactured in Belgium. However, they are proposing to set up ML3 in Asia which will significantly lower the costs. The alternative, Illumina and Fisher NGS systems are not exactly cheap. China may of course decide to choose more labor intensive PCR, but they want to prove to the world and their sphere of influence that they are a modern economy, so I don't think they will go with the status quo.

Where we differ is that you contend that BCART will never scale to achieve profitability whereas, I have gone on record as saying this (2021) appears to be a transition year where the growth trajectory is hitting an inflection point. For that reason, I indicated that I was going to reassess my position in another year (mid 2022). It is also the reason I was extremely mad that they suffered another setback (the fire). If BCART is not making substantial progress in ramping sales and improving margins by mid 2022, I'll be inclined to to agree with the scaling issue. The pandemic has created the conditions which favor Idylla, If BCART cannot capitalize on this tailwind, I'll be inclined to agree with you that they will never scale operations to profitability.

Let me turn your line of thinking around on you. How will you sleep, if BCART is successful in in capitalizing on the broadening shift toward POC testing, personalized medicine, CDx, automation of processes, etc. You certainly have no intention to re-enter a position since "Idylla is only suitable for viewing in a museum". Your position appears to be unretractable and written in stone. Mine is that there are signs of improvement, lets give it more time to see if it bears fruit, The future will tell which of us is right,

FL
OzDx
1
MB, understand that you can be looking at the exact same company and have different views in investing. Allocate accordingly if you can't stomach falling share price. Having a negative view on a company is OK and I highly encourage it but you shouldn't be having a go at someone who's providing useful information to the forum.
ElTorro
0
When I started looking @ this share around the end of 2019 most indicators (MACD for example) were favorable, so I started buying. Then came pandemic and some other setbacks which could/couldn’t have been foreseen, after which you land in a negative spiral that you have to sit out (and perform some damage control) or bail out (and take the loss).

If you look @ some indicators now after the ride down we had, they show this is the momentum for going up again, which we see is starting to happen.
I assume that within Credit Suisse there are some people working that have studied economics (let’s hope), so I think they also have studied some indicators and numbers, and saw an opportunity to start buying in.

On one hand I can understand the negative feelings that some have towards the BCART stock after the bad experience they had.
On the other hand you can’t blame the others for staying positive and believing in the future of startup companies (which this is).
If they wouldn’t exist, then what point would there be for startups to go to the stock market.
Flatlander
0
EL Torro
These differences in opinion are what makes markets. I would point out that the lions share of the share price destruction occurred as a result of the 1st half 2019 conference call announcement that sales in the US were not going well and that they were going to replace the Fisher distribution agreement with BCART sales and service staff. This decline occurred quickly and the SP has not yet recovered. FDA approval of the MSI registration and a CDx marketing program with BMS could go a long way to reversing the 2019 correction. I think a launch on the Nasdaq could similarly move share price while raising funds.

Momentum has been bi#@& when it has been going against BCART, lets hope this reversal has legs and the wind is at our backs for a change.

FL
Flatlander
2
Thanks Oz

I agree that tolerating differences in opinion is critical, and that we collectively are better off by free flow of information and bringing facts to light that we may not have considered. MB point that the past is prologue to the future is essentially momentum investing and there are countless examples of trends reversing.

I was more interested in his statement that Idylla is obsolete. He failed to ever flesh out the supporting argument for this thesis, Current sales trends suggest Idylla traction is increasing not waning. I spend considerable time looking at competing technologies NGS, OGM, DD PCR; etc. In such a competitive field, this is a major risk to Idylla. If someone sees technologies that will upend Idylla, we would be stupid not to listen carefully to their argument.

FL
ElTorro
0
Agree, but maybe this decision was not so bad after all.. better having your on foot on the ground then someone else's that you don't trust.
That being said, we are still waiting for approvals in US, and I’m starting to think that bureaucracy is even worse there then it is in EU, or is it deliberately being slowed down?
Launch @ Nasdaq will eventually have to take place.
Flatlander
1
El Torro,
Septicyte Rapid is long overdue MSI should come up this fall. I think Immunexpress is being pushed to quantify the value of the Septicyte assay in COVID patients. Demonstrating that Rapid replicates Lab is a slam dunk.

The 510K MDx approval process is disfunctional and needs to be revamped.

Based on todays trading, it looks like there is pressure to establish positions prior to the 1st half conference call. Seems like some are anticipating good news. Having been a long term BCART shareholder , I worry about being blindsided by a delay in reagent availability.

FL
MisterBlues
0
quote:

Flatlander schreef op 31 augustus 2021 01:28:


MB,
Amazon was chosen to point out that even the most successful disruptor companies go through long drought periods. Somehow the case does not resonate as well if I choose an obscure company, Cepheid is much closer to BCART in business model and it is my favorite analog. Strangely enough many of Danaher's (Cepheid's parent Co) earning reports cite strong growth in emerging markets. I'll agree that China does not make sense if the cartridges are manufactured in Belgium. However, they are proposing to set up ML3 in Asia which will significantly lower the costs. The alternative, Illumina and Fisher NGS systems are not exactly cheap. China may of course decide to choose more labor intensive PCR, but they want to prove to the world and their sphere of influence that they are a modern economy, so I don't think they will go with the status quo.

Where we differ is that you contend that BCART will never scale to achieve profitability whereas, I have gone on record as saying this (2021) appears to be a transition year where the growth trajectory is hitting an inflection point. For that reason, I indicated that I was going to reassess my position in another year (mid 2022). It is also the reason I was extremely mad that they suffered another setback (the fire). If BCART is not making substantial progress in ramping sales and improving margins by mid 2022, I'll be inclined to to agree with the scaling issue. The pandemic has created the conditions which favor Idylla, If BCART cannot capitalize on this tailwind, I'll be inclined to agree with you that they will never scale operations to profitability.

Let me turn your line of thinking around on you. How will you sleep, if BCART is successful in in capitalizing on the broadening shift toward POC testing, personalized medicine, CDx, automation of processes, etc. You certainly have no intention to re-enter a position since "Idylla is only suitable for viewing in a museum". Your position appears to be unretractable and written in stone. Mine is that there are signs of improvement, lets give it more time to see if it bears fruit, The future will tell which of us is right,

FL


Het voortdurend verschuiven van data naar een nieuwe horizon van vermeende voorspoed na tegenslag is structureel bij BioCartis als ook dat de echt hoge groeiversnelling uitblijft de laatste jaren. Ik ga dat niet nog een keer herhalen.

Ik slaap juist uitstekend nu ik alles anderhalf jaar geleden al heb verkocht & verlies heb genomen. Het resterende geld direct herbelegd in onder andere ASML, BioNtech en dus het verlies goed gemaakt. Ik zou nu weer opnieuw kunnen instappen als ik geloofde in de businesscase van BioCartis.

Het halsstarrig en krampachtig vasthouden van verlieslatende aandelen is niet erg slim: het is dood geld en daarnaast is wat je moet maken aan rendement accumulerend om je verlies goed te maken. De ramp is compleet als het aandeel uiteindelijk niet levert. Ik slaap dus erg goed en ik heb dus ook het inzicht en de stomach te handelen zoals een belegger zou moeten doen in plaats van deel uit te maken van een literatuurclubje gevormd rond dit aandeel.

Het is ontegenzeggelijk zo dat FL veel inhoudelijk bijdraagt maar vergeet niet dat het grootste deel van wat ie schrijft - hoe goed bedacht en met kennis van zaken opgesteld - hogelijk speculatief is en meeslepend. Pas dus op dat je niet ook een fan wordt maar een belegger blijft. Tijd kan je maar een keer spenderen net als geld.



MisterBlues
0
quote:

OzDx schreef op 31 augustus 2021 08:15:


MB, understand that you can be looking at the exact same company and have different views in investing. Allocate accordingly if you can't stomach falling share price. Having a negative view on a company is OK and I highly encourage it but you shouldn't be having a go at someone who's providing useful information to the forum.

Het getuigt juist van moed je verlies te nemen en met het overgebleven deel een betere belegging te doen. Volgens snap jij nog niet veel van beleggen.

Het halsstarrig en krampachtig vasthouden van verlieslatende aandelen is niet erg slim: het is dood geld en daarnaast is wat je moet maken aan rendement accumulerend om je verlies goed te maken. De ramp is compleet als het aandeel uiteindelijk niet levert. Ik slaap dus erg goed en ik heb dus ook het inzicht en de stomach te handelen zoals een belegger zou moeten doen in plaats van deel uit te maken van een literatuurclubje gevormd rond dit aandeel - dat een slechte business case is.

Het is ontegenzeggelijk zo dat FL veel inhoudelijk bijdraagt maar vergeet niet dat het grootste deel van wat ie schrijft - hoe goed bedacht en met kennis van zaken opgesteld - hogelijk speculatief is en meeslepend. Pas dus op dat je niet ook een fan wordt maar een belegger blijft. Tijd kan je maar een keer spenderen net als geld.
MisterBlues
0
quote:

Flatlander schreef op 31 augustus 2021 15:09:


Thanks Oz

I agree that tolerating differences in opinion is critical, and that we collectively are better off by free flow of information and bringing facts to light that we may not have considered. MB point that the past is prologue to the future is essentially momentum investing and there are countless examples of trends reversing.

I was more interested in his statement that Idylla is obsolete. He failed to ever flesh out the supporting argument for this thesis, Current sales trends suggest Idylla traction is increasing not waning. I spend considerable time looking at competing technologies NGS, OGM, DD PCR; etc. In such a competitive field, this is a major risk to Idylla. If someone sees technologies that will upend Idylla, we would be stupid not to listen carefully to their argument.

FL


Zoals gewoonlijk geen aandacht voor het zakelijke verhaal van BCart. Amerika is niet gewonnen en China zonder lokale productie werkt niet, en doe je dat wel dan ben je het kwijt.

NGS wordt trouwens zeker concurrerend - wordt steeds goedkoper en gaat sneller en gerichter, terwijl PCR min of meer gewoon stil blijft staan. Ook AI en microchips met samples komt eraan.

Dan is er nog directe PCR concurrentie van diverse bedrijven. Wat BCART maakt is niet lang meer uniek!
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