Top steel industry executives are thought to have met with US Commerce Department secretary Wilbur Ross to discuss the section 232 investigation into steel imports.
One industry analyst predicted that a decision in the case could be imminent.
But other sources said they had left recent meetings with administration officials with little idea of when the probe, into the potential threat to national security of steel imports, might conclude or what remedies it might recommend to slow down imports.
“While the recommendation from the [US Commerce Department] to the [Trump] administration has pushed past the June-end deadline initially targeted, we understand it could be provided this week,” Seth Rosenfeld, an equity analyst at New York-based investment bank Jefferies, said in a research note on Wednesday July 19.
The US Commerce Department is expected to provide a ‘menu’ of options for the administration to select from.
“But the administration’s decision may not be made public until next week, after previously scheduled meetings with Chinese government officials,” Rosenfeld added.
The US-China discussions, as well as this week's North American Free Trade Agreement reform talks, have distracted trade officials tasked with the Section 232 investigation, Washington sources said. And those discussions could see any big developments on the Section 232 probe pushed into next week.
Nonetheless, Ross found time on Tuesday to meet with the top executives of six US steelmakers, sources told Metal Bulletin sister publication AMM.
The group was said to include Nucor's John Ferriola, US Steel's David Burritt, ArcelorMittal USA's John Brett, AK Steel's Roger Newport, TimkenSteel's Ward ‘Tim’ Timken, and Barbara Smith, who will become president and ceo of Commercial Metals Co (CMC) on September 1.
Mark Millett, president and ceo of Steel Dynamics Inc (SDI), also had meetings with Ross and the US Trade Representative, Robert Lighthizer, last week.
“They understand the issues of trade and they are working to recommend to [president Donald Trump some] restraints that will make the environment for steel healthy again,” Millet said in confirming the meeting during an interview with US business news channel CNBC.
An AK Steel spokeswoman, while declining to confirm Tuesday's meeting with Ross, said the company continued to support a robust 232.
“We urge the administration to implement a comprehensive, broad-based import remedy, covering the full range of steels, with only limited exceptions for products not currently available in the United States," she told AMM on Wednesday.
Other steelmakers contacted by AMM either did not confirm whether the meeting had occurred or did not respond to requests for comment.
A spokesman for the US Commerce Department did not respond to requests for comment about the 232 timeline or the steelmakers' meetings with Ross.
Accounts of meetings with administration officials on 232 were not uniformly positive.
One industry executive said he left a meeting with Ross with the sense that the commerce secretary wanted to take action soon, but was unsure whether action might be days or weeks away.
In contrast, another industry source said he was left with the impression that action was probably not imminent.
“The new narrative here is managing expectations and lowering expectations,” he said.
A Washington source said steel consumers who met with US vice president Mike Pence about the 232 last week came away equally short on specifics.
“It was, ‘Thank you for coming in. Appreciate your comments. A decision will be made’,” he said. “No timelines. No winks or nods or body language about whether that decision is in the pipeline or what the eventual outcome might be.”
Such mixed reactions come as the 232 faces stiff opposition from key steel-consuming industries, including the agricultural sector, which unlike the steel industry is highly dependent on exports.
“If the Section 232 investigations into steel and aluminium result in new trade barriers, the aftermath could be disastrous for the global trading system and for [the] US agriculture sector in particular,” 18 agricultural industry associations, said in a July 11 letter to Ross.
The meetings came after the US Commerce Department missed a self-imposed June deadline for the Section 232 probe, leading to growing speculation over whether and when a 232 decision might come.
While some sources insist the US Commerce Department will make a move this week, others contend that action might not come until as late as the autumn.
The latter scenario is more likely if the Trump administration decides to use the threat of the 232 decision to position US trade negotiators to roll out policies aimed at combatting global steel overcapacity ahead of a November deadline, agreed at the G20 meeting in Hamburg, Germany, earlier this month.