op dft postte iemand het al, zal het hier even neerzetten. Koopadvies van SNS- koersdoel 22,60
"we change our rating on Tele Atlas to BUY with a price target of EUR 22.60 per share."
Research Morning Notes
Tele Atlas (16.90), Rating: BUY, 2006A: -0.13 2007E: 0.04 2008E: 0.44
Event
Rating change: from Under Review to BUY, price target of EUR 22.60
Comment
Although Tele Atlas (TA) is guiding for only a 10% ASP decline in FY07 (based
on the outcome of negotiations with TomTom and Mio), we take into account more
substantial declines in both the North American and European market of 17% and
16% even though it seems as though TA and Navteq are more than happy with the
current situation with modest price competition.
However, PNAV penetration in all market is set to continue to accelerate while
TA's market share is expected to remain high (Europe) or even expand (North
America and other regions), resulting in a substantial increase in unit sales,
offsetting the higher ASP declines.
We also take into account substantial growth in FY07 of the Mobile solutions
market (albeit from a small base), which holds great potential even when
taking into consideration the possibility of lower ASPs than those in PNAV.
This market will take off in FY07 and will grow into a major revenue stream
for TA given its partners, which include TomTom, Nokia, RiM and a large group
of navigation software providers and mobile operators.
As a result we forecast significant sales growth in the near and medium term
while TA's high fixed cost basis ensures rapid increases in profitability.
For FY07 we forecast sales of EUR 343m and an adjusted EBITDA of EUR 80m,
substantially higher than company guidance of sales EUR 315m and adj. EBITDA
of EUR 65m respectively as welll as consensus estimates.
We believe the company is simply too cautious.
Conclusion
In other words, our fears have been assuaged with regards to ASP developments
in personal navigation (the main reason why we kept Tele Atlas on a Hold
before putting it under review) while we have become more positive about
market growth (including the Mobile segment) and Tele Atlas' share thereof.
As higher top-line growth immediately results in improved profitability,
because of Tele Atlas' inherent operational leverage, we change our rating on
Tele Atlas to BUY with a price target of EUR 22.60 per share.
The update above was published in our Research Morning Notes for
28/03/2007HTML and PDF