Een analyse van Jan De Kerpel. Met dank aan Sanderus (beursig - forum).
CONCLUSIES:
- De nieuwe deal zal minstens 250 milj. waard zijn
- De kans op een overname is zeer reëel momenteel
- Filgotinib is beter dan ABT-494
KBC Securites (Jan De Kerpel)
OVER DE DOSERING IN FASE 3
In terms of preferred dosing, Galapagos believes that efficacy must be maximised and plans to start with a bi-daily dosing of 100mg during the first 12 weeks, followed by a once-daily 200mg dose, demonstrating its firm belief in the 200mg dosing regimen.
NIEUWE DEAL
Because Galapagos has sufficient cash and has demonstrated its strength in big pharma deal-making, we expect an upfront inlicensing fee of $ 250m to be a minimum (with AbbVie, it was agreed to pay $ 200m for RA and an additional $ 50m for Crohn’s). However the reality may be higher, especially because Galapagos has no financial stress and can again organize a bidding process amongst the interested parties as the product is totally unencumbered.
OPPORTUNITY AND THREAT
Galapagos is now a take-over target. With the most valuable asset fully-owned and uncertainty expected in the coming months, any party interested in filgotinib will calculate the cost of acquiring this cash-rich company.
The other early clinical projects may also suddenly have a value for a potential acquirer as those interested in JAK-inflammation are probably also interested in the early clinical stage projects (GLPG1690 in IPF and GLPG1205 targeting GPR84 with the phase 2a ulcerative colitis readout expected in 1H16). For some, a take-over would be considered as a threat, but for many others a bid accompanied by a good premium would be considered as an opportunity.
De VERGELIJKING VAN DE RESULTATEN VAN ABT-494 en FILGOTINIB
The best way to compare the ACR results of ABT494 with those of filgotinib is via the placebo correction. The table below lists these corrections for the three highest doses of ABT494, the four highest doses of filgotinib, and the working doses for humira, Xeljanz and baracitinib.
From this data it is clear that filgotinib 2x100mg systematically has better numerical values than all 4 JAK inhibitors for both ACR20, 50 and 70. Only Humira does better for ACR20, though this TNF-blocker underperforms at ACR70. AbbVie indicated that it is proceeding with the once-daily dosing while Galapagos said it wants to start with the twice-daily 100mg dosing, so we believe the results of ABT494 24mg QD should be compared to filgotinib at 100mg BD.