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Why ArcelorMittal Might Keep Climbing Back

By Brian Pacampara | More Articles | Save For Later
October 21, 2013 | Comments (0)

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While Fools should generally take the opinion of Wall Street with a grain of salt, it's not a bad idea to take a look at particularly stock-shaking analyst upgrades and downgrades -- just in case their reasoning behind the call makes sense.

What: Shares of ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT ) climbed 3% this morning after Deutsche Bank upgraded the steel giant from hold to buy.

So what: Along with the upgrade, analyst David Martin boosted his price target to $19 (from $13.50), representing about 19% worth of upside to yesterday's close. While value investors might be turned off a bit by the stock's steady rebound over the past three months, Martin believes that there's plenty of potential left given all the room that Arcelor, as well as the economy, still has to improve.

Now what: Deutsche thinks Arcelor's earnings could build plenty of positive momentum as the economy shows some signs of life. "While we remain skeptical on a removal of the global capacity overhang, management has worked aggressively on taking out costs which makes AM highly geared toward any improvement in fundamentals," noted Deutsche. "With a recapitalized B/S, significant earnings leverage and upgrades on a potentially strong H1 as catalyst, AM offers attractive risk/reward in a recovery scenario." With the stock still off a whopping 85% from its 5-year highs and trading at a price-to-cash flow of 6, I'd agree that Arcelor looks like a solid opportunity.


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10/21/2013 @ 10:41AM |81 views

Past Month Shows EPS Estimates Down for AK Steel

By Narrative Science

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Analysts have become increasingly bearish on AK Steel in the month leading up to the company’s third quarter earnings announcement scheduled for Tuesday, October 22, 2013. The consensus analyst estimate has moved from a loss of 10 cents a share to the current prediction of a loss of 24 cents a share.

Over the past three months, the consensus estimate has fallen from a loss of five cents. Analysts are projecting a loss of 64 cents per share for the fiscal year. Analysts look for revenue to decrease 8% year-over-year to $1.35 billion for the quarter, after being $1.46 billion a year ago. For the year, revenue is projected to roll in at $5.55 billion.

For the last four quarters, the company has reported revenue decline. Revenue declined 4% to $1.40 billion in the second quarter. The figure fell 9% in the first quarter from the year earlier, dropped 6% in the fourth quarter from the year-ago quarter and 8% in the third quarter.

Earnings estimates provided by Zacks.

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voda
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ArcelorMittal advies omlaag naar sell - Market Talk


AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--UBS heeft het advies voor ArcelorMittal (MT.AE) verlaagd maar sell van buy. Het koersdoel gaat naar EUR10,50 van EUR11,50. De analisten verlagen hun EBITDA verwachtingen voor het staalconcern in 2014 met 9% tot $7,1 miljard en voor 2015 met 8,5% tot $8,8 miljard. Het leeuwendeel van deze verlaging komt voor rekening van de mijnbouwactiviteiten aangezien de analisten hun volumeverwachtingen voor de werkzaamheden in Liberia aanzienlijk terugbrengen. Hierdoor is de waardering van het fonds minder aantrekkelijk geworden, helemaal omdat de koers na het dieptepunt van juli met 38% is gestegen. Het aandeel is maandag gesloten op EUR12,03. (LDF)


Dow Jones Nieuwsdienst: +31-20-5715200; amsterdam@dowjones.com
voda
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BHP Billiton voert productie ijzererts op

Gepubliceerd op 22 okt 2013 om 07:17 | Views: 3.137

MELBOURNE (AFN/BLOOMBERG) - BHP Billiton heeft de productie van ijzererts afgelopen kwartaal stevig opgevoerd en verwacht dit jaar meer te produceren dan eerder werd aangegeven. Het mijnbouwbedrijf reageert daarmee op de sterke vraag uit China.

BHP Billiton meldde dinsdag dat de productie van ijzererts in het eerste kwartaal van zijn gebroken boekjaar met 23 procent is gestegen, tot 48,8 miljoen ton. Analisten voorspelden een productie van 47,8 miljoen ton. De totale ijzerertsproductie neemt dit boekjaar naar verwachting toe tot 212 miljoen ton. Eerder voorspelde het concern een totale productie van 207 miljoen ton.

De import van ijzererts door China klom in september tot het recordniveau van 75 miljoen ton. IJzererts is de belangrijkste divisie van BHP Billiton. Vorig boekjaar leverde de grondstof 43 procent van de brutowinst van de mijnbouwer.
voda
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Akkoord over cao grootmetaal

Gepubliceerd op 22 okt 2013 om 16:32 | Views: 190

ZOETERMEER (ANP) - Vakbonden en werkgeversorganisatie FME-CWM zijn het dinsdagmiddag eens geworden over een nieuwe cao voor de grootmetaal. Als de kaderleden van de bonden dit resultaat woensdag goedkeuren, zijn de stakingen in de sector van de baan. Dat maakte vakbond FNV Metaal bekend.

Het akkoord voorziet in een structuele loonsverhoging van 4,2 procent in 22 maanden. Jongeren tot 23 jaar krijgen daarbovenop nog eens 3 procent. Partijen hebben verder afspraken gemaakt om oneerlijke concurrentie op arbeidsvoorwaarden tussen Nederlandse en buitenlandse werknemers tegen te gaan.

In de grootmetaal werken circa 150.000 mensen, in onder meer de automobielindustrie, metaalgieterijen, truckbouw, scheepsbouw, chips- en halfgeleiders, vliegtuigbouw en machinefabrieken.

Kleinmetaal

Op 11 oktober werd al een soortgelijk cao-akkoord gesloten voor de ruim 300.000 werknemers in de kleinmetaal.

De hele metaalsector was vanaf 20 september het toneel van stakingen en werkonderbrekingen. Op maan- en vrijdagen werd het werk neergelegd, waarbij regio's, branches en bedrijven elkaar afwisselden.

De cao-onderhandelingen voor de klein- en grootmetaal waren van de zomer stuk gelopen op de looneis van de vakbonden en andere arbeidsvoorwaarden.
voda
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China crude steel production hit 65.42 million tonnes in September

According to the figures from National Bureau of Statistic, China has produced 587.38 million tonnes of crude steel in the first nine months of this year, up 8% year on year; 539.63 million tonnes of pig iron, climbing 6.9% from a year earlier; 795.45 million tonnes of steel products, a rise of 11.7% compared to the same period last year.

Daily crude steel production was 2.181 million tonnes, up 2% month on month; daily steel products output hit 3.118 million tonnes, an increase of 5.1% from a month earlier.

Source - www.steelhome.cn/en
China steel information centre and industry database
voda
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Chinese iron ore futures fall on subdued steel demand outlook

Reuters reported that Chinese iron ore futures fell more than 1 percent on Monday as restocking by steel mills in the world's top consumer remained tepid on a sluggish demand outlook for the alloy in the Q4.

Steel demand typically slows down in November and December as construction activities in China's northern regions are hampered by the cold temperatures, which limits steel mills' appetite for building inventories of the raw material.

An iron ore trader in Shanghai said that "Mills' sales orders are weaker and they are short of cash flow which has restrained iron ore buying, wiping out upside for prices, though purchases in small volumes have kept prices relatively steady for now."

The most active 62% grade iron ore futures for May settlement on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 1.5% to a session low of CNY 960 per tonne. It traded at CNY 968 by the midday break.

The new contract closed 1.8 percent higher at CNY 977 on its debut on Friday. The contract price includes a 17% value added tax and other costs.

According to provider Steel Index, by comparison, the benchmark spot price for same grade iron ore .IO62-CNI=SI stood unchanged at USD 134.4 per tonne on Friday.

Traders said that in the absence of a pick up in orders from end users, Shagang, China's top privately owned steelmaker, kept prices unchanged for late October bookings. That means rebar will fetch CNY 3,580 per tonne and wire rod CNY 3,640 per tonne.

The most-traded January rebar contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood almost unchanged at CNY 3,563 per tonne by the midday break after falling for three consecutive sessions.

An iron ore trader in Beijing said that the cash flow will remain a big issue for mills until there is a big improvement in steel demand and some billet producers are cutting prices to withdraw cash.

Source - Reuters
voda
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China to buy up more iron ore

China will up the amount of iron ore it acquires from the global seaborne iron ore market in the coming months as investment in infrastructure, particularly railways picks up speed. Currently, China consumes more than 60% of total global iron ore.

Annual consumption of iron ore by China is tipped to be a massive 1 billion tonnes as higher steel production, fuelled a record 74.58 million tonnes of the ore in September up 8% from August and an increase of 15% from a year earlier.

Investment will remain a major driver of China's economy as a result of the government's mini stimulus and experts forecast that capital driven growth will continue to accelerate for the rest of the year as the economic outlook brightens.

The Bureau of Statistics said that as of the end of September, fixed asset investment was up 20.2% YoY to CNY 30.9 trillion. Interestingly, private investors ploughed CNY 19.6 trillion into fixed asset investment, almost twice as much as State owned investors.

Investments in the less developed central and western provinces grew at a faster pace than those in the eastern coastal provinces.

Source - Proactive Investors

voda
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China pig iron production hit 59.04 million tonne in September 2013

According to latest bulletin from National Bureau of Statistics, China produced 59.04 million tones of pig iron in September, up 11.2% year on year.

Total pig iron ore output in the first nine months of the year was 539.63 million tonnes, up 6.9% year on year.

Source - www.steelhome.cn/en
China steel information centre and industry database

voda
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Ruukki's new Z600 metal coating provides enhanced corrosion resistance

Ruukki is to launch a new Z600 metal coating for applications requiring excellent corrosion resistance. The thick Z600 coating has a mass of 600 g/m2 of zinc and can withstand complex forming. Typical applications for Z600 coating include silos, culverts, traffic sign poles, crash barriers, electrical cabinets, frame structures and cable trays.

Z600 coating can significantly extend the lifespan of products. For example, compared to the Z450 coating widely used in silos, the new Z600 coating can prolong the useful lifetime of a silo by up to a third.

Mr Olli Hurskainen VP coated products special steels of Ruukki said that "The surface quality of Z600-coated steel ranks among the best on the market and coating appearance is consistent. In applications where no welded structures are required, Z600 coating can guarantee the longer lifetime of the applications at a considerably lower cost than batch hot dip galvanised products, for example.”

Ruukki supplies Z600-coated steel as strip and tubular products for all metal-coated steel grades manufactured by Ruukki.

Ruukki's range of metal coatings also includes Galfan and Galvannealed coatings.

Source - Strategic Research Institute
Candelll
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Arnaud Montebourg, France's notorious minister for Industrial Renewal, has revealed that U.S. tire manufacturer Titan, whose outspoken CEO said a Goodyear factory was "not worth saving", might be on the verge of proposing a deal to take it over after all.

The Amiens plant in France is a very prickly issue for Goodyear. Since 2007, the American group has been battling to restructure the struggling factory, only to run into lawsuits, union protests and industrial action.

Earlier this year, after Goodyear announced it was planning to close the plant, the French socialist government wrote to Titan, suggesting the company buy the plant.

(Read more: Adieu! How France could be losing its elite)

"How stupid to you think we are?" wrote Titan's CEO, Maurice Taylor, to Montebourg in February 2013.

"The French workforce gets paid high wages but work only three hours", he added, "they get one hour for breaks and lunch, they talk for three and work for three".

Criticizing both the French and U.S governments and citing subsidies in China and India, he wrote that the group would rather buy Chinese and Indian tire-makers due to the cheap labour costs and concluded: "You can keep the so-called workers. Titan has no interest in the Amiens North factory".

Montebourg — who has gained a combative reputation when it comes to safeguarding French jobs, including telling steelmaker ArcelorMittal it was no longer welcome in the country after it announced plans to close several furnaces — swiftly replied to Maurice Taylor, describing his comments as "as extremist as they are insulting".

However, by Monday, according to Montebourg, Titan might be willing to take over the plant and invest over $100 million, $40 million of which would go to the site, and maintain 330 jobs (out of the 1,100 strong workforce) for at least four years.

(Read more: Vive la robotic revolution? Hollande's 10-year plan)

But while Montebourg has announced Titan's renewed interest, he appears to be the only one.

"I know nothing regarding your country [France] of formidable wines and beautiful women," said Taylor to the French news agency AFP. Meanwhile Goodyear said it had "received no new offers" for Amiens.

However, Taylor's Facebook update appeared to add fuel to the speculation.
France's strict labor protection laws have often been criticized as a barrier for foreign investment. However, in its 2012 report, "Job-creating foreign investment in France", the government's Invest in France agency reveals that in the past 10 years, the country had attracted over 6,500 new foreign investments, and that the trend showed no sign of waning.

(Read more: Why the French may say 'non' to 'Made in France')

In fact, it says, that despite a global decline of foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2012 and a 35 percent fall in European Union inflows, France was the world's fifth leading recipient of FDI flows in 2012, ahead of Germany.

It also highlights "how American companies continued to choose France as the location for new job-creating investments in 2012, consolidating the United States' position as France's leading foreign investor".

New American investments accounted for 23 percent of the 693 new foreign projects in 2012, with a significant rise in the number of first-time investors in the country.
Candelll
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Tuesday, Oct 22

9:53 AM

UBS offers mildly optimistic view of steel, stocks to buy and sell
UBS steel analysts are cautiously optimistic on a return to growth for the steel industry (SLX), believing steel demand is heating up and the auto and manufacturing sectors can drive growth forward.
UBS actually sees steel prices falling next year, but producers that have lowered costs and restructured are poised to perform well; the firm likes Nucor (NUE +0.4%) and Steel Dynamics (STLD +0.3%) as stocks to buy.
However, higher fixed and legacy type costs will have a severe impact on other well-known names in the sector; the firm downgrades U.S. Steel (X -0.8%) and Reliance Steel (RS -0.1%) to Neutral while AK Steel (AKS +0.2%) and ArcelorMittal (MT -1%) are cut to Sell due to deteriorating fundamentals
Candelll
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US Steel, Alliance Steel Drop, as UBS Picks Winners, LosersEmail Print smaller Larger By Ben Levisohn
“Steel demand is heating up” in the US, says UBS analyst Matt Murphy. Some steel stocks, however, are ready to cool down, he says


Reuters When it comes to steel demand, the world is looking good. Murphy explains:

We anticipate strong steel demand growth in 2014, led by a pick-up in nonresidential construction as well as ongoing growth in automotive and manufacturing sectors. Growth will continue in 2015 and reach pre-recession levels by 2016.

Prices, however, do not:

On the supply side, the global steel industry will remain overcapacity, and given our falling iron ore price forecast we expect steel prices to fall from the current $650/t spot price to less than $600/t by H2/14 while metal spreads to scrap should generally be maintained near-term and begin expanding in 2016.

That dynamic means that companies that can benefit from construction strength and cut costs will outperform others. For that reason, Murphy keeps Nucor (NUE) and Steel Dynamics (STLD) at Buy. He wasn’t so kind to Reliance Steel (RS), US Steel (X) and AK Steel (AKS), which were all cut, though for different reasons.

When it comes to Reliance, it’s all about valuation. Murphy writes:

Its model of consolidating service centers has consistently been accretive, as RS normally buys smaller companies at lower multiples using low-cost debt. Within the metals service center industry, RS is a best-in-class operator with a top-tier management team, high inventory turns and EBITDA margins. However, we view the current stock price as fairly valued given our falling steel and aluminum price outlook and its impact on absolute profits. We rate Reliance Steel a Neutral and our $75 PT is based on an 8.0x EV/EBITDA (2015) multiple.

US Steel gets a downgrade to Neutral from Buy thanks to an increase in competition. Murphy explains:

As an integrated steel producer, X has been burdened by high fixed costs in the weak steel markets of recent years and high legacy liabilities due to low discount rates. We expect US Steel to benefit from reduced pension liabilities in 2014, while also improving margins through cost reduction and revenue maximization efforts currently underway. However, we remain concerned about increasing competition in X’s most profitable segment, Tubular goods, and we only see sector capacity utilization reaching higher levels in 2016, meaning margins could remain weak in the medium term.

And AK Steel? It gets cut to Sell from Neutral:

The company has suffered from weak margins and high leverage, compounded by debt and high legacy liabilities. AKS is benefitting from an improving US auto sector; however, it will be some time before it can realize any benefit from its raw materials integration strategy, which is underway. The largest issue we see for AKS is the cash drag from required pension payments notwithstanding an improving economy and rising interest rates

Nucor has gained 1.2% to $51.32 and Steel Dynamics has risen 0.6% to $18.40, while Reliance Steel has dipped 0.5% to $75.11, US Steel has dropped 2% to $23.52 and AK Steel has fallen 2.7% to $3.95.

voda
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Despite breathtaking September steel market slated for decline in China

September will be remembered as sole bright spot in the recent past with an all-round effervescence. A glance at the gamut of economic indicators amplifies feel good factor in the Q3 and September in particular in China.

China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.8% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2013 was the highest quarterly growth so far this year. The impressive performance kindled hopes of achieving the annual GDP target of 7.5%. Steel sector grew 10.5% which was above the industry average of 9.6% during the first 3 quarters.

Over January-September, China’s crude steel output raised 8% on-year to 587.4 million metric tons while finished steel production was up 11.7% to 795.5 million mt, In September alone, the nation’s crude steel output stood at 65.42 million tonnes, spiking 11% YoY. Fixed asset investment grew by 2.6% during the same period.

A whirlwind growth in investment in railway infrastructure by 12.5% YoY to reach CNY 328.7 billion (USD 53.9 billion) in first 3 quarters has kept the economy and steel industry chugging along at modest pace.

However after the National Holiday (8th October) market seems poised for sobriety with winter setting in leading to lull in construction activity. Steel production by China, the world's biggest producer and consumer, slipped in early October. Crude steel output by China, the world's biggest producer and consumer, dropped to an average 2.128 million tonne in the first 10 days of October from 2.152 million tonne in the last 10 days of September.

Steel price levels have maintained downtrend losing 1% during the last fortnight. It is learnt that most of the major mills have already announced roll over price into November. Trader’s stockiest sensing unlikely pick up in price levels has coerced mills to dole out discount.
voda
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US Weekly raw steel production update

In the week ending October 19, 2013, domestic raw steel production was 1,835,000 net tons while the capability utilization rate was 76.6%. Production was 1,692,000 net tons in the week ending October 19th 2012, while the capability utilization then was 68%. The current week production represents a 8.5% increase from the same period in the previous year.

Production for the week ending October 19, 2013 is down 0.6% from the previous week ending October 12, 2013 when production was 1,847,000 net tons and the rate of capability utilization was 77.1%.

Adjusted year to date production through October 19, 2013 was 77,708,000 net tons, at a capability utilization rate of 77.2%. That is a 2.5% decrease from the 79,737,000 net tons during the same period last year, when the capability utilization rate was 76.1%.

Broken down by districts, here's production for the week ending October 19, 2013 in thousands of net tons:
North East – 204
Great Lakes – 654
Midwest – 219
Southern – 673
Western – 85

Source – Strategic Research Institute
voda
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BHPB updates on iron ore production

Iron ore – Iron ore production increased by 23% in the September 2013 quarter to 49 million tonnes.

WAIO achieved record production of 54 million tonnes (100% basis) for the September 2013 quarter. Continued strong operating performance across the supply chain and the successful delivery of first production from the Jimblebar mine, ahead of schedule, contributed to the record result. The ramp up of phase one capacity at Jimblebar to 35 million tonne per annum is expected to be completed by the end of the 2015 financial year.

The optimisation of the supply chain in the Pilbara continues to unlock substantial value and WAIO is now expected to produce 212 million tonnes (100% basis) in the 2014 financial year, a five million tonne increase on prior guidance. Longer term, a low cost option to expand Jimblebar to 55 million tonnes per annum and the broader debottlenecking of the supply chain is expected to underpin further capital efficient growth in capacity to approximately 260 million tonnes per annum to 270 million tonnes per annum (100% basis).

Samarco’s (Brazil) three pellet plants continued to operate at capacity during the period. Total iron ore production for the 2014 financial year, which includes Samarco, is now expected to increase to 192 million tonnes (BHP Billiton share).

Source – Strategic Research Institute
s.lin
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Caterpillar wacht op mijnbouwers
23 oktober 2013 14:11
Caterpillar verwacht dat zijn winst en omzet dit jaar voor het eerst sinds 2009 zullen dalen. 's Werelds grootste machinebouwer krijgt nog altijd weinig bestellingen binnen van mijnbouwers en zag zich daarom voor de tweede keer dit jaar genoodzaakt zijn verwachtingen voor 2013 te temperen.

Mijnbouwers hebben hun productie de afgelopen tijd weliswaar weer opgeschroefd, maar ze blijven terughoudend bij het bestellen van nieuwe machines.
Dit is slecht voor Caterpillar, aangezien mijnbouwmachines als kiepwagens en bulldozers vorig jaar goed waren voor bijna een derde van de omzet.

Omzet
Caterpillar rekent nu op een omzet van 55 miljard dollar en een winst per aandeel van circa 5,50 dollar over het hele jaar. In juli werden nog opbrengsten van 56 tot 58 miljard dollar en een winst van 6,50 dollar per aandeel voorspeld.
In het derde kwartaal zakte de omzet met 3 miljard dollar tot 13,4 miljard dollar. De nettowinst ging met 44 procent omlaag tot 946 miljoen dollar.Omgerekend daalde de winst per aandeel tot 1,45 dollar, tegen 2,54 dollar een jaar eerder. Zowel de omzet als de winst was lager dan analisten hadden verwacht.
Door: AFN
voda
0
quote:

ttroo schreef op 23 oktober 2013 17:07:

Voda, bedankt weer voor alle postings!!!
Bedankt Ttroo, jouw posting lees ik ook altijd met plezier.
Er zijn hier een aantal goede posters, die elkaar met allerlei nieuws/feiten aanvullen.

Kortom, een plezierig forum!

Met name ook dank aan o.a. de Volharder, Rene I, etc.
Candelll
0
Stratman Robert J who is Executive Vice President at Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE), sold 15,397 shares at $51.37 per share for a total value of $790,888. The shares recently traded at $51.42, up $0.05, or 0.1% since the insider sale.
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