For those who like to play m/a strategies:
Consider the timing for q2 results and e-plus deal announcements. The last one fully overshadowed not too good performance figures..., prices went up and kpn value was partially unlocked.... Then, an “imaginary offer” at 2.4 on Aug. 9 unlocked the value further...., but created a “gap”, which had to be closed anyway before further rising... The "gap" was actually closed on Aug 30..... However, that “2.4 imaginary offer” (in some extent) stipulated an “improvement” for e-plus deal creating real added-value..... unlocking kpn value further.... Since “new advantages” of “new kpn” most likely may start working in H2, or a bit later, there is a prob that the same scenario and “timing” could be used again for q3 presentations.....
So, the most probable date for another “takeover offer” is practically known.... But the prob itself strongly depends on the q3 figures.... (available to kpn and its main shareholder) If q3 results are too good – there is actually no need in any “takeover offer” – prices will rise anyway unlocking kpn value further. However, if q3 results are still not good – the prices could be "supported" again by the “same tool” - by new (most likely not realistic again) “takeover offer”.
Last week distributions and Friday closing confirmed that i) “no takeover” was priced in, ii) possible “new offer” would NOT be “unpredictable”, iii) “future expectations” could be concentrated around the date of q3 announcements, and iv) most likely the prices & volume would NOT “react” on rumors, but ONLY on new objective info.... Actually current situation is close (but not equal) to that of May-June, when prices were ~1.4-1.6 while the “min price” for new kpn was at least ~1.75
However, the main point is that kpn does NOT need to be taken over. Given that i) the fair value of new kpn is around ~4.0, ii) new financials & advantages will start working soon, iii) large volume is still sitting at > 3, and iv) market & default risks are (almost) zero - the share prices will rise anyway (with, or without any “takeover offer”)