Biocartis « Terug naar discussie overzicht

quote:

Rarezot schreef op 4 februari 2020 08:22:

Hey Nat,

Ik hoop inderdaad ook dat mijn voorspellingen uitkomen (of dat het beter is). En natuurlijk kan ik er flagrant naast zitten, maar je moet je ergens op kunnen baseren eh... Dus ik doe mijn best met de gegevens die ik heb gekregen en methoden die vroeger voor me werkten. That's all I can do ;)

Ik doe liever schattingen gebaseerd op onderzoek om zo tot een koersprijs te komen die me geschikt lijkt. Natuurlijk moet je voor de koersprijs niet alleen naar toekomstige verkoop kijken maar ook naar wat het bedrijf bezit aan gebouwen, materiaal, productiemachines, cash, kennis, etc.
Ik vind dat persoonlijk een betere methode dan te geloven op de koersdoelen van andere analisten. Dan besef ik tenminste de risico's die ik aanga en kan ik alleen mezelf de schuld geven als het fout gaat. Dit helpt me ook met onrustige koersen zoals hier en indien er nieuws komt herreken ik terug mijn koersdoel en pas ik, indien nodig, mijn positie aan. Geen enkele methode is perfect en niemand heeft altijd winst, dit is gewoon voor mij de betere manier. :)

Rarezot

quote:

brightlight schreef op 4 februari 2020 19:19:

FL
Of course the prediction-value of the sales volume poll is limited. Of course most of us know Nichirei could blow 2020 console estimates out of the water. The reason for the forum poll that I started was not so much to get an exact number, but to get a feel of what other members are thinking and to see if I wasn't overly optimistic in my own projections. I must say the quality and quantity of the reactions surpassed my wildest expectations, and they were very helpful to me and I suppose to others too. I strongly believe that helping other forum members better understand (the company that they invest in or want to invest) is beneficial for us all. I suppose you share this view considering the amount of effort you put into this forum. From my part a big thank you to all who participated.
BL

quote:

Flatlander schreef op 4 februari 2020 20:25:

BL

As you know I like to read how the target market was receiving Idylla. I don't know how many positive
or even glowing reviews I have read. I'm guessing maybe 50 or so. To date, only one has been lukewarm. It focused solely on liquid biopsy results for ctEGFR and was sponsored by sysmex. The review chief fault of Idylla was that the liquid biopsy was not as sensitive as the Sysmex NGS liquid biopsy assay when the circulating tumor levels were low (i.e., less than 5%MAF). I came to this board partially to see if I was overlooking something major. So far the concerns listed below that I've identified are highly correctable and as I discuss I have largely rationalized that they are not significant enough to dissuade my investment in BCART.

1) The majority of the assays are designated as RUO outside of the EU. This correction is underway to expand the registrations and open the market;

2. The time from announcement of a partnership or from completion of proof of concept verification is lengthy (3 years or so). Because Idylla is disruptive by being cheaper and faster the solutions are likely to have a lengthy market life (see the Cepheid discussions), thus having to wait is understandable given that the product life cycle is likely a long one.

3) BCART has large competitors that are better funded. As I have posted, the majority of the competitors (Grail, Illumina, Fisher, etc.) are searching for ways to reduce costs and TAT to try to compete in the POC market. The recent Illumina earnings report indicates they are experiencing problems in this market segment. In my mind this tends to validate BCARTs target market for Idylla. The cost differences are huge. I imagine that the competitors will continue to reduce costs but I think there is a pretty good runway for Idylla.

4) I have in the past worried that staff changes could zap some of the innovative life blood from BCART. My impression is that Rudi might not have been the person to oversee worldwide introduction of Idylla. To date, I have not seen where changes in management and technical personnel have significantly diminished the product or the relationships with partners. I'd be interested in local perspective on this point;

5) Cash burn - As much as I don't enjoy the dilution that occurred last year, you have to admit that it was well timed (before the Sept downturn) and that it gave them enough money to see the company through a couple years and hopefully to the doorstep of profitability.

Just a few thoughts. My take away is that most of the most serious problems are regulatory approvals and are already being addressed.

FL

quote:

Flatlander schreef op 4 februari 2020 18:33:

[...]

I tend to view the value proposition in the same way. If you look at the current market cap and then subtract off the cash could you recreate the console system, the assays currently on the market, the ones awaiting regulatory approval, the IP, the manufacturing lines, the R&D pipeline, the content partnerships, the CDx partnerships, etc. When I put numbers to the tangible and intangible assets, I come away with the opinion that BCART is a bargain.

The future growth projections are a WAG. Nichirei alone could blow any of the 2020 console estimates out of the water if they deploy the 2000 systems that the press releases suggested could be deployed. I do believe there will be a major inflection point in the growth curve this year as Idylla transitions into a diagnostic use device rather than RUO. Also, China is a huge cost sensitive market. This could be a product that gains serious traction.

Do you have any insights whether other cartridge based oncology PCR IVD companies would likely require the Phillips IP or could they easily engineer around the IP? I found it really weird that Cepheid in 2009 discussed how oncology was going to be a big growth engine and then did very little with oncology product offerings over the next decade. It looks like they ran into an impediment of some type. Do you think it was Phillips IP or some other IP? I recall that one of my first posts on this board was about a San Diego firm trying to recreate a very similar system to Idylla. At the time I joked that they were at least 5 years behind.

FL

quote:

Hans90 schreef op 4 februari 2020 20:38:

Allen,

Ik heb even naar de Japanse partner Nichirei gekeken. Wat me opvalt is dat hun biotech afdeling 45 MEur omzet draait en onder "other" valt in hun corporate resultaten/presentaties (1% van hun totale omzet). Hun Q/A van kwartaal bevat volgende verwijzingen naar de biotech afdeling. Wat is jullie idee van Nichirei als partner?

Group Overall
Q. President Okushi, it’s now been six months since you assumed your present roll. Would you
summarize the response and current issues?
A.Earnings have been mostly in line with plan, driven by the Processed Foods and Logistics
segments. However, in terms of enhancing the collective strengths of the corporate group, the
Marine Products, Meat and Poultry, and bioscience business in the Other segment have
struggled during the current term.
The food business in Japan is changing substantively. We will utilize our advantage in production,
while also strengthening our technology development and planning/solutions capabilities, to
further enhance our customer responsiveness. Outside Japan, the Asian foods market in the
United States is growing. We will delve deeper and expand in this category, and increase our
sales.
For the Marine Products and Meat and Poultry segments, we will shift from quantitative
expansion, and increase profitability by raising the level of processing, and providing added
value.

Other
Q. What are the reasons for the downward revision in the operating income forecast for the
Other segment?
A. The downward revision is due mainly to the bioscience business. Sales of molecular diagnostic
reagents and rapid diagnostic reagents fell short of initial plan, and we incurred temporary
expenses including startup costs for a new R&D center, and acquisition-related expenditures in the
U.S.

quote:

brightlight schreef op 4 februari 2020 21:09:

Om af te ronden, hier het volledige overzicht.
BL

Full year estimates for 2020:
Cons. sold Cons. Y on Y Including installed base Cartr. sold Cart. Y on Y Cart per console
Bonsjoer 610 81,01% 1920 325000 85,71% 169
Gijpie 600 78,04% 1910 275000 57,14% 144
Sheridans 350 3,86% 1660 250000 42,86% 151
XiXiX 325 -3,56% 1635 250000 42,86% 153
Flatlander 410 21,66% 1720 248000 41,71% 144
Brightlight 354 5,04% 1664 243000 38,86% 146
Pumske 400 18,69% 1710 240000 37,14% 140
Stock 379 12,46% 1689 220000 25,71% 130
Rarezot 350 3,86% 1660 220000 25,71% 133
Laup4 310 -8,01% 1620 210000 20,00% 130

quote:

brightlight schreef op 4 februari 2020 20:47:

[...]
FL
I know you don't like me saying this, but I agree on all points. Only yesterday, when you posted another positive study, I was thinking the list of positive reviews seems endless. Concerning your question in point 4, I am sure another forum member will be better qualified to answer.
BL

quote:

DAFR schreef op 4 februari 2020 21:18:

BL,

net even website van Nichirei bekeken, de Q&A dateert van 6 november 2019.

quote:

XiXiX schreef op 4 februari 2020 21:31:

[...]

Kan je aan deze ook een opbrengst/waarde vasthangen?

quote:

DRTVR schreef op 4 februari 2020 22:20:

Ik weet dat het nog vroeg is maar vangen jullie ook iets op van een mogelijke vervanging van CFO Ewoud Welten, afhankelijk van wie het is, kan dat de markt positief beïnvloeden, of is het zo dat een goed product daar weinig hinder van ondervind?

quote:

Rarezot schreef op 4 februari 2020 20:56:

[...]

FL

I think it will be extremely difficult to make a cartridge without the Phillips IP (not saying it can't be done or they can't find a loophole in the patents or something like that). I don't know the details in the current patents, but you will need a way to pump liquids in the cartridge (and choose which liquid at which time), heat up a small part of the cartridge without heating too much of the rest. And it all has to fit in a small package and you have to find a way to increase shelf life. I'm not a bio-chemical engineer, but the temperature parameters, the liquid quantities and all that are really strict.
So I would say that if you have a dedicated team, you might be able to redesign it. If there is a major flaw in the patents (which I doubt), and they are able to get their hands on some cartridges of Biocartis, it will be 'fast'. I would estimate 2-3 years to find the flaw, do some major redesigning just to get some working test cartridges and a test system (that's with a flaw in the patent). Then you have to set up production, convince people that your product is better/easier/cheaper, get the necessary approvals,...

Another way they might circumvent the Phillips IP is making the cartridges specific to the test (physically). The cartridge of Biocartis is really versatile, you have some interchangeable parts, but the core of the cartridge is always the same. That way it's 'easy' to develop different tests and the Idylla-system doesn't have to change except for some software updates. So maybe they can physically alter the cartridge so much and lose this versatility. But that would make it hard to sell...

Let's just say that, unless some Bio-engineers find a new better way, I think it's impossible (or way too expensive) to get aroud the Phillips IP. The cartridges for Idylla are too compact and versatile, and you will create too many disadvantages for yourself by altering the design enough to avoid IP-conflicts.

Rarezot