SJURVM schreef op 17 jan 2016 om 15:35:
Energy is only 6.5% of the S&P weighting with Exxon Mobil or Esso over her.
Look at the expeted P/E in the file.us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500
You will see that so far this year it is not necessarily the energy sector that has gone down the most. See the biotech sector (J&J). www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockperf.pdf
I expect ( or more to the point, I hope)that we will have rebound at 1868 for the S&P 500. THa will have been a 12.5% correction. Otherwise there is another downside to 1745 or so.
However Iran is going to receive their $100bn frozen assets back. They will pump oil by June too. They will spend that money over time for infrastructure and basic necessities. That will help aleviate the slack from China. Given time also China will get back to a normal growth for them.
Metal ores are way down in price and so is the oil needed for energy to smelt the ore
The deal with Airbus is just the beginning. So I personally feel we are really close to the end of the downturn.
We do not live in a bubble as far as Galapagos is concerned unfortunately.
Institutional investors want to see a "calm" markt returning before investing again.
So maybe we will see the €45 mark (which is touching the long term trend line.
HoweverI really believe that it is the bottom for Galapagos this year.