Perpetuals, Steepeners « Terug naar discussie overzicht

Groupama 6,375 perpetual callable 2024

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I would like to start discussion about the new perpetual bond issued by Groupama S.A. 6,375% callable 2024 perpetual.
Isin FR0011896513
coupon 6,375 (cumulative on regulatory base if solvency had fallen under 100%)
Rating BB
current solvency margin 200%
Market: Euronext Paris

bonds.nyx.com/en/products/bonds/FR001...
Hoover
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quote:

LittleSteven schreef op 23 juni 2014 16:16:

call date on the 2039 sub.notes is october, 27th 2019
6.7875% call 10/27/2019 geeft hoge running yield van 6.8% en YTM van 4.5% (op cashprice van 115.65%)
6.375% call 05/28/24 geeft running yield van 6.1% en YTM van 5.8% op een cashprice van 104.50

Ik ken veel mensen die alleen naar running yield kijken omdat ze toch niet blijven zitten tot de bonds op par aflossen. Op zich hou ik wel van de verre call op de nieuw lening en 5.8% tot de call is natuurlijk best ok.
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quote:

Hoover schreef op 24 juni 2014 11:47:

[...]

6.7875% call 10/27/2019 geeft hoge running yield van 6.8% en YTM van 4.5% (op cashprice van 115.65%)
6.375% call 05/28/24 geeft running yield van 6.1% en YTM van 5.8% op een cashprice van 104.50

Ik ken veel mensen die alleen naar running yield kijken omdat ze toch niet blijven zitten tot de bonds op par aflossen. Op zich hou ik wel van de verre call op de nieuw lening en 5.8% tot de call is natuurlijk best ok.

right, but you should consider Yield to Call (YTC) for both bonds.;)
About 6,375 now I see ask/offer on e.next 104.05
benito c.
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This bond seems to be interesting. The only thing I wonder about is why Groupama has to pay a lot more interest than banks who sell Coco´s? I know Groupama a little bit, it is a quiet French cooperative insurer with some banking services. In the past they had some troubles, but now it seems more stable.

benito c.
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I have bought one.

I have also the Casino 4,87%, but that one has a call in 5 years, and is now above the 105%, when I bought it was 99%.
benito c.
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quote:

Alias II schreef op 25 juni 2014 09:05:

Alleen porties van € 100.000 ??
Ja, Alex accepteert alleen orders van 100.000 of een veelvoud daarvan.
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quote:

benito c. schreef op 25 juni 2014 08:44:

This bond seems to be interesting. The only thing I wonder about is why Groupama has to pay a lot more interest than banks who sell Coco´s? I know Groupama a little bit, it is a quiet French cooperative insurer with some banking services. In the past they had some troubles, but now it seems more stable.

some trouble and no market friendlyness during the financial turmoil, but since 2013 on the way of capital consolidation: on last march fitch upgraded rating to BBB with positive outlook.

Management changed its behaviour to markets and investors offering in exchange old hybrids vs the new ones of this thread.

Solvency margin now at 200%, combined ratios to be improved from 100,9.
zeurpietje
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quote:

benito c. schreef op 25 juni 2014 09:07:

[...]
Ja, Alex accepteert alleen orders van 100.000 of een veelvoud daarvan.
ook binck alleen 100.000 of meervoud
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Hoover
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I expect this bond to underperform with a +7 yr duration to the call.
Euro rates are very low , especially when you compare to US and UK. BOE starting to change future guidance quite rapidly and Fed will continue tapering. The risk in this bond is more duration then credit.
Hoover
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Also , please keep an eye on Insurance names when rates go up. In general good for their future buisnesss and earnings potential, but short term this is a hit on their bond portfolio's. My feeling is that this bond is not good when rates rise.
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I suggest to take a look at 2014 1st half financial results:
en.groupama-sa.com/finance/financial-...

in brief:

Stable premium income of €9.2 billion
Selective development in France
International growth
Operating income in line with the Group's strategy
Strong improvement of the combined ratio in non-life insurance at 98.5% (-2.4 points)
Part of the unit-linked products increased to 16.2% of the total reserves in individual savings (+2.9 points),
Economic operating income of €100 million
Net profit of €140 million

Solvency margin of 239%

Hoover
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101.42 offered nu. Deze lange subs worden geraakt, oge correlatie met de aandelen markt, net zoals de Coco's.

Opvallend dat Groupama maar 100m winst haalt op een EV van 8 mrd. Volgens onderstaand bericht moet het kapitaal ook nog iets versterkt worden.

98) Options BFW Jul 07 2014 11:44:30
Aviva, Generali May Issue T1s on Solvency II Risks: CreditSights 91) ?
By Charles Daly
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Aviva, Generali and Groupama are
prime candidates for Tier-1 issuance as cos. prepare to optimize
balance sheets given capital needs under Solvency II, Philippe
Picagne, analyst at CreditSights, writes in client note.
• Three cos. are at risk under Solvency II owing to low amounts of shareholders’
equity and reliance of “soft and pseudo capital tiers”
• Cos. all have excessively high levels of soft capital (including Value In
Force) with Aviva at 101% of avg. shareholders’ equity, Generali at 146% and
Groupama at 167%
• Tier-1 capital that includes VIF is capped to 50% of co.’s solvency capital
requirement, under current draft of Solvency II
• NOTE: VIF is a measure of future profit from policies that an insurance
co. holds
• Tier-1 issuance will be needed to strengthen their economic/solvency capital
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