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Coal Production in Powder Basin in US Shrinks by 9% YoY

According to latest data from the Mine Health and Safety Administration, Q4 coal production in the Powder River Basin in US fell 9.6% QoQ and 13.8% YoY to 72.3 million short tons. Annual production from Powder River fell 9.3% YoY to slightly more than 294 million short tons

Peabody Energy's North Antelope Rochelle mine, the basin's largest mine, produced 21.4 million short tons in Q4, down 11.7% QoQ and 13% YoY, with full-year production 13.2% lower at 85.3 million short tons.

Arch's Coal Black Thunder mine, PRB's second-largest mine, produced 17.6 million short tons in Q4, down 17.4% QoQ and 0.1% YoY, and 72 million short tons for the full year, which was 1.2% higher than the prior year.

Cloud Peak Energy's Antelope mine produced 6.3 million short tons during Q4, down 8.1% QoQ but up 7.7% YoY.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Terracom to buy Universal Coal

Australian coal miner TerraCom Ltd through its wholly owned subsidiary TCIG Resources Pte has offered to buy peer Universal Coal PLC for about AUD 175 million. Under the cash-and-stock deal, a Universal shareholder will get 10 cents in cash and about 0.6026 new TerraCom shares for each Universal share held. The offer values each Universal share at 33.5 cents, a premium of 42.6% to Friday’s close. “The offer will allow both companies to continue to run successful coal operations with the improved benefit of geographic diversity and an expanded production footprint,” TerraCom said in a statement.

TerraCom’s primary operating mine Blair Athol is in Queensland, while Universal’s top operations are in South Africa.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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US North Dakota Coal Production Drops 8% in 2019

According to Lignite Energy Council, North Dakota’s five coal mines produced 27.2 million tons of lignite in 2019, an 8% drop from the previous year. Council's president and CEO Jason Bohrer said “The lower tonnage in 2019 also resulted partially from electricity produced from other sources including natural gas, wind generation and the Garrison Dam, which put pressure on lignite-based power plants in the state.”

North Dakota has seven lignite-based power plants, which consist of 12 individual units. Normally, each unit has a major outage every three years. Plants that had major outages last year included Coyote Station, Heskett Station, Antelope Valley Station, Milton R. Young Station and Coal Creek Station. Coal production in North Dakota has held steady over the past decade despite the national decline of the coal industry.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Thermal Coal Prices to Fall on Coronavirus Outburst in China

International thermal coal prices may fall following outburst of the coronavirus in China. Wood Mackenzie said “We expect February would take the biggest hit by the coronavirus as the Chinese government implements various controls against the accelerated spread of the virus, including public holiday extensions and travel bans. On 25 January, Linfen city of Shanxi province announced a delay to production restart and only maintenance work is allowed. Weakening economic and industrial activities would hurt both thermal coal demand and Chinese domestic production.”

According to the firm, thermal coal imports into China are also likely to slow for a time. Already there are reports of Indonesia coal producers being asked to delay loadings. As the largest supplier of coal to China, Indonesia has the most to lose if the situation worsens and electricity demand weakens.

The impact on prices, though, is likely to be muted. Prices have already fallen so significantly through 2019 that many producers across the globe are in a negative margin situation. Market sentiment could certainly drive the price lower, but this will be temporary until China began importing again

The overall near-term impact on thermal coal is largely determined by how effective the control measures taken are through March, and when the recovery of macro-economic activities and power demand will occur.

Trade and prices could both remain volatile depending on where the impacts are concentrated. Should the outbreak continue to accelerate into March and more heavily impact coastal areas, restocking interest from Chinese traders may be muted for longer weighting on the seaborne market.

However, if the impacts are limited to the interior, domestic supply could be disrupted allowing for more imports. The upside to prices though is likely not that significant given the abundant availability of Indonesia production.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Indian Coal Import Rises 8% in Apr-Dec 2019

According to provisional data by mjunction services India's coal import increased by 7.6% to 185.88 million tonnes in the April-December 2019, up by 7.66% compared to 172.65 million tonnes in the same period last year. Coal imports in December rose by 13.3% to 20.52 million tonnes compared to 18.10 million tonnes in the year-ago month, Non-coking coal imports were at 14.21 million tonnes in December 2019 against 12.5 million tonnes in December 2018. Coking coal imports were at 4.47 million tonnes against 3.76 million tonnes imported in December 2018.

mjunction MD and CEO Mr Vinaya Varma said "There was slight uptick in import activities during the month, thanks to the recovery in steel prices and steady demand from sectors like cement and sponge iron. Going forward, import demand may subside a little due to current volatility in non-coking coal prices and increased supply of coal from domestic sources.”

India imported 235.2 million tonnes of coal in 2018-19 valued at INR 1.7 lakh crore.

Source : Strategic Research Institute,
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Indonesia Promoting Coal Gasification Plants

Indonesia’s Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Mr Arifin Tasrif told reporters that Indonesia plans to set cheaper prices for coal to be sold to future gasification facilities as part of incentives for investors. Mr Tasrif said “The government will direct coal prices to USD 20 to USD 21 per tonne for future plants that will process coal into gas. If possible, we even want the price to be below USD 20 per tonne."

Indonesian government is promoting the development of the coal gasification industry to take advantage of Indonesia's large coal output and is offering incentives to attract investments. State coal miner PT Bukit Asam is currently planning to build a gasification plant in South Sumatra that is expected to start operation around 2023-2024. The country's largest coal miner PT Bumi Resources is conducting a feasibility study on potentially investing over USD 1 billion in a gasification facility.

Indonesia's government coal benchmark price is currently set at USD 65.93 per tonne.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Chinese Coking Coal and Coke Futures Recover on Supply Concerns

Coke and coking coal futures in China on Wednesday as worries over supply of the steelmaking ingredients intensified due to the coronavirus epidemic. The most-traded coke contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 1.2% to CNY 1,788 a tonne, up 0.3% and the most-active Dalian coking coal contract was up 1.7% at CNY 1,209 a tonne, up 0.6%.

The coronavirus epidemic has also prevented factories from resuming operations after the Lunar New Year holiday that ended on Sunday. Also, due to the shortage of raw material supply, coke companies have stopped production in a wide range. Coke stocks at steel mills and ports have fallen, pushing spot prices higher. Spot prices of coking coal, the main raw material to produce coke, have also risen as some coal mines in China struggle to restart operations

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Chinese Coking Coal Imports in 2019 Surge by 15% YoY

According to Chinese customs data, China imported 74.6 million tonne of coking coal in 2019, up by 15.3% from 64.7 million tonne in 2018. Stricter import policies towards the end of the year meant that a significant amount of coking coal was denied customs clearance, with clearance of many cargoes delayed to January 2020. This delay has occurred for the past two years.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Japanese coking coal Imports in 2019

Despite a slowdown in steel production, Japan's coking coal imports were largely unchanged in 2019 at 69.39 million tonnes, a drop of just 0.2% from 69.54 million tonnes in 2018.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Bhatia Group's Assets Seized in Coal Loan Scam

State Bank of India stressed Asset Management Branch has initiated seizure of Indore based Bhatia Coal Group, having its regional offices in Nagpur, Chandrapur, Mumbai, Hyderabad and few cities of Gujarat 70 properties, and notices have been pasted on 29 properties located in Indore for the loan default on INR 1800 crores. The company's headquarter is located in Manorama Ganj in Indore where the SBI team led the action on Monday.

Bhatia group has its business interests spread beyond national boundaries in Singapore, Indonesia and South Africa. The properties worth crores belonging to promoters - Gurvind Singh Bhatia, Surinder Singh Bhatia, Kulwant Singh Bhatia, Indrajeet Kaur Bhatia, Amandeep Singh Bhatia have been attached. The said properties are located in various posh localities of Indore including Navratan Bagh, Piplyarao, Siddharth Nagar and Mangal Nagar.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Indonesia Increases Benchmark Coal Reference Price for February

Indonesia has slightly increased its coal reference price known as coal benchmark reference price for February amid the lower supplies and rising demands. The Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry set the coal reference price for the month at USD 66.89 per tonne, up 1.45 percent from the price for January. Ministry spokesman Mr Agung Pribadi said “The lower supply of coal in China after the country celebrated the Spring Festival and bushfires in Australia dragged outputs of the commodity. However, demands for coal increase during winter in China, Japan and South Korea.”

The coal price has weakened since September 2018 and for 2019, the Indonesia's coal reference price only averaged at USD 77.89 per tonne. The Indonesian reference price for thermal coal is the basis for setting up the prices of the country's 77 coal products and measuring the royalty producers have to pay for each tonne of coal sold.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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NSW Greens Climate Protection Bill to Quit Coal

Greens Member for Newtown Jenny Leong MP gave notice of a Private Member’s Bill in the NSW Legislative Assembly to take the action needed to protect our climate and put our communities’ needs first. The Bill will immediately prohibit the approval or expansion of new thermal coal mines in NSW and prohibit thermal coal mining in NSW by 2030, making it an offence under the Mining Act after this date. The Bill also provides just transition provisions to protect workers employed in thermal coal-related industries.

Mr Leong MP said “We have known for decades that burning coal is the single biggest contributor to climate change. We must and we will phase out coal mining. The scientific community knows it, the emergency responders know it, the Greens know it and our community – from student strikers to regional Mayors are calling for political leadership to make it happen. We abhor the NSW government’s coal addiction – there are currently 14 new and expanding coal mine projects which if approved, could produce more coal and greenhouse pollution than Adani’s controversial Carmichael coal mine in Central Queensland. This Bill provides a pathway for the exit from coal to happen, while providing a just transition for the workers currently employed in those mines, so that no one is left without a livelihood. We have no doubt that NSW has to quit its addiction to coal, that the old parties need to break their toxic relationships with the big polluters and that coal mining will one day be prohibited in our state.”

The NSW Greens Mining Amendment (Climate Protection-Prohibition of Thermal Coal Mining) Bill 2020 will amend the Mining Act 1992 to:
prohibit the granting of new thermal coal mining leases
prohibit the variation of existing thermal coal mining leases to increase mining area size
prohibit thermal coal mining by 2030
protect the interests of employees affected by the prohibition of thermal coal mining.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Coronavirus Hits Coal Mining in China and Import Logistic Chain

Reuters noted columnist Mr Clyde Russell wrote that China’s domestic coal mines are struggling to ramp up production in the face of the on going coronavirus epidemic. While there may be increased demand for imported coal in China in coming weeks, the problem for major exporters such as Indonesia, Australia and the United States is going to be one of logistics. The coronavirus is starting to have an impact on supply chains and will make it more challenging for shippers to find vessels to go to China. And even if exporters do get their goods to Chinese ports, they will likely face headaches in unloading cargoes and transporting them from docks to end-users.

The challenge of shipping coal to China was illustrated by the Australian government’s decision to impose a 14-day quarantine on vessels leaving mainland China after February 1. This means such vessels will face delays upon reaching Australian ports, as the sailing time between China and both the east and west coasts of Australia is generally less than 14 days. Vessel queues outside Australian coal ports are already lengthening. Argus Media reported on February 4 that the number of ships waiting outside Newcastle, the world’s largest coal export harbour, was at an 18-month high of 20 vessels. There are some other factors that may be contributing to longer vessel waiting times, such as weather and port and rail maintenance, but the overall trend is clear: Shipments to, as well as from, China are becoming more complicated to arrange.

One thing that is working in exporters’ favour is a sharp decline in shipping rates. At these freight prices, shipping companies will be losing money on every voyage, while they are also facing higher costs from the mandatory switch to cleaner fuels that kicked in last month as part of a change in global shipping regulations known as IMO2020. While the cost of shipping may be depressed, the main challenge will be securing vessels with owners prepared to send them to China.

The coal market appears to be reacting with caution to the coronavirus, with still considerable uncertainty over how much domestic output has been lost, what transport bottlenecks exist currently in China and whether more imported coal will be needed. Even if it is, can it get there efficiently?

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Teck Provides Q1 2020 Coking Coal Sales Update

Teck Resources Limited announced that steelmaking coal sales for the first quarter of 2020 are being affected by bad weather in British Columbia causing rail and terminal performance issues. Among other issues, heavy snow and extreme cold in January and rock and mud slides have affected rail lines and adjacent highways. Ongoing heavy rains have delayed remediation work. The estimated impact on first quarter sales is expected to be approximately 1 million tonnes, resulting in sales in the quarter of 5.1-5.4 million tonnes.

High mine site clean coal inventory levels are also expected to limit first quarter coal production if weather conditions do not improve. Separately, the raw coal feed belt at Elkview mine experienced a mechanical failure which is expected to prevent raw coal processing through the plant for approximately two weeks. Teck is implementing plans to supplement Elkview production from its other operations during this outage.

Further guidance on coal production and sales will be provided in Teck's regular quarterly results news release.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Peabody Reports Q4 and 2019 Results

Peabody announced its fourth quarter 2019 operating results, including revenues of USD 1.12 billion; loss from continuing operations, net of income taxes of USD 290.2 million; net loss attributable to common stockholders of USD 289.8 million and Adjusted EBITDA of USD 204.9 million. President and Chief Executive Officer Glenn Kellow said "During the fourth quarter, Peabody made a number of operational improvements in Australia, reduced costs in four of five operating segments, opportunistically repurchased bonds to reduce debt, generated substantial cash from commercial settlements and progressed the regulatory process for the proposed PRB/Colorado joint venture. For 2020, we are targeting improved met coal volumes and costs, lower SG&A and reduced North Goonyella holding costs. Those benefits are expected to partly offset current lower pricing in all segments, lower US thermal volumes, and the loss of some $200 million in contributions from the closing of the Kayenta and Millennium Mines."

The seaborne thermal segment exported 3.3 million tons at an average realized price of USD 64.83 per short ton, with the remainder delivered under a long-term domestic contract in the fourth quarter. For the full year, Peabody's export thermal sales totaled 11.5 million tons with domestic shipments totaling 8.0 million tons. During the quarter, the Wambo complex had improved production, which contributed to strong segment cost performance of $30.68 per short ton and underpinned fourth quarter seaborne thermal margins of 33 percent. In addition, the Wilpinjong Mine had record railings in 2019.

Fourth quarter PRB shipments declined 8 percent from the prior year to 27.6 million tons, reflecting the challenging demand backdrop across the United States. Continued strong cost performance, along with the settlement discussed above, contributed to 23 percent PRB Adjusted EBITDA margins in the fourth quarter. The Midwestern segment cut costs per ton by 10 percent from the prior year to USD 31.61 per ton even as volumes declined 20 percent, following reduced production from less uneconomic mines. Costs improvements reflect higher productivity across several mines as well as favorable mix from ongoing mines.

2020 Outlook Seaborne Thermal Coal - The United Wambo joint venture was formed in the fourth quarter of 2019 following final federal permit approval. Joint production is targeted to begin late in 2020 and allow for optimized mine planning, improved strip ratios, enhanced quality and the potential to extend the life of the open-cut operations beyond 2040. Costs will be temporarily elevated in 2020 as the mine transitions to the joint venture structure. Peabody expects to spend approximately USD 60 million in capital expenditures in 2020 in conjunction with the joint venture. The Wilpinjong Extension Project, which extends the life of one of the lowest-cost thermal coal mines in Australia and offers attractive returns, continues to progress. Capital expenditures associated with the project are expected to total approximately USD 40 million in 2020.

2020 Outlook Seaborne Metallurgical Coal - Peabody is implementing actions to increase metallurgical coal volumes and lower unit costs. 2020 seaborne metallurgical volumes are expected to be approximately 8.3 million tons. Volumes are anticipated to be weighted to the back half of the year as Shoal Creek is expected to return to normal production levels, following a several-week outage in the first half of the year to finalize an upgrade of the main line conveyor system. Following a significant reduction in holding costs, Peabody is commencing a commercial process for its North Goonyella Mine in parallel with the existing and ongoing mine development plan. The process comes in response to substantial expressions of interest in this valuable asset from potential strategic partners and other producers. Commercial outcomes could include a strategic financial partner, joint venture structure or complete sale of North Goonyella. At this time, Peabody is in discussions with the Queensland Mines Inspectorate regarding ventilation and re-entry of Zone B. Based on the success of discussions with QMI and/or progression of the commercial process being launched, Peabody will determine the appropriate level, if any, and timing of capital expenditures.

2020 Outlook US Thermal Coal - Following an extensive review, and in line with the agreed upon timeline, Peabody anticipates a decision from the U.S. Federal Trade Commission regarding the formation of the highly synergistic proposed PRB/Colorado joint venture in the first quarter. In addition, Peabody and Arch are engaged in permitted integration planning for the proposed joint venture. Following the announced closure of the Kayenta Mine and several other mines in the Midwest in 2019, Peabody will consolidate the former Midwestern and Western segments into 'Other US Thermal' for purposes of segment reporting in 2020 and beyond. Committed volume of approximately 20 million tons in 2020 reflects the combined effects of these closures.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Transnet and Eskom Form Team to Explore Doubling Coal Volumes

African News Agency reported that Transnet plans to almost double Eskom coal volumes next year as part of boosting the reliability of its freight services. Transnet said it would haul 11.5 million tonnes of coal in 2020-21, up from 7.5 million tonnes in the 2019-20 financial year by providing reliable freight services to Eskom. Transnet’s group executive for markets Mr Mike Fanuchi told delegates that Transnet was working with Eskom chief executive Andre de Ruyter and his team to address underlying issues. He said “I spoke to him just before we walked into this room. We have established a joint Eskom Transnet task team looking at how we can drive that coal up. We are looking at how we are going to move 11.5 million tonnes next year and 14 million tonnes thereafter to reach 32 million tonnes in the next five years.”

He said Transnet wanted to understand what would happen to coal demand over the next decade or two, adding that the aim was to move coal cheaply and effectively. He said “We have aligned with Eskom in terms of looking at different operating models. We regard them as our siblings, our objective is to reduce the cost of doing business. Our objective is to reduce the cents per kilowatt-hour, because if we do that, we reduce the cost of doing business in this country. We are reducing our costs because we are buying a lot of electricity.”

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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CIL Profit in Q4 Dips 14% YoY

India’s state owned Coal India Ltd’s quarterly profit fell on the back of lower realisations from online auctions and higher operating expenses. Net profit fell 14.1% YoY to INR 3,923.9 crore in the quarter ended December 2019. That was because e-auction volumes of the world’s largest coal miner fell 33% over the previous year to 9.84 million tonnes and realisation from the online auctions fell nearly 8% over the previous year to INR 2,623 per tonne. Revenue fell 7.4% on an annual basis to INR 23,190.5 crore, operating profit fell 26.8% YoY to INR 4,968.5 crore and operating margin narrowed to 21.4% from 27.1% a year ago.

An official said “Coal production this year will exceed that of last year, though there was some impact due to rains, by the end of the current fiscal it will be covered up. So we will be exceeding the last year production numbers with a healthy surplus. There has been a setback because one of the largest mines and the largest mine in Asia Deepika that has been flooded. So that has impacted the production. But the coal scenario is very healthy in the country. Stocks at the power plants and mines are much higher than the same period last year.”

In 2018-19, Coal India produced 606.89 million tonnes while dispatch was 608.14 million tonnes.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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EIA Forecasts 14% Dip in Coal Production in US in 2020

Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts that US coal production will total 595 million short tons in 2020, down 95 million short tons or 14% from 2019. Lower production reflects declining demand for coal in the electric power sector and lower demand for US exports. EIA forecasts that electric power sector demand for coal will fall by 81 million short tons or 15% in 2020. EIA expects that coal production will stabilize in 2021 as export demand stabilizes and US power sector demand for coal increases because of rising natural gas prices.

EIA expects the share of US utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants will remain relatively steady; it was 37% in 2019, and EIA forecasts it will be 38% in 2020 and 37% in 2021. Electricity generation from renewable energy sources will rise from a share of 17% last year to 20% in 2020 and 21% in 2021. The increase in the renewables share is the result of expected use of additions to wind and solar generating capacity. Coal’s forecast share of electricity generation will fall from 24% in 2019 to 21% in both 2020 and 2021. The nuclear share of generation, which averaged slightly more than 20% in 2019 will be slightly lower than 20% by 2021, consistent with upcoming reactor retirements.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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BMA Caval Ridge Sets World Record for Largest Electronic Blast

BHP Mitsubishi Alliance’s Caval Ridge Mine in the Bowen Basin now holds the title of the world’s largest electronic blast completed using Dyno Nobel DigiShot technology. The blast in December saw 4.7 million cubic metres of overburden shifted in a blast fired with 2,194 tonnes of bulk explosives across 3,899 holes. Caval Ridge Drill and Blast Superintendent Dallas Gostelow said the blast was loaded over 14 days, involving engineers, schedulers and the E and F Blast crews and involved a combination of four related blast patterns, using 8,144 detonators

He said there were significant safety, efficiency and cost improvements to be made using the electronic technology. He said “Timings for the detonators are fully programmable and each blast hole is physically connected to the surface by a wire, but the systems is less complicated and fully digitised, which means higher fidelity of tie in to reduce misfire potential. The ability to fire larger blasts, or multiple blast patterns in one event, means downtime for equipment is kept to a minimum.”

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Defying UN Resolutions North Korea Smuggles Coal to China,

An annual report on North Korea sanctions violations revealed that North Korea exported 3.7 million tonnes of coal from January to August 2019, with more than 70 percent of it likely smuggled to China through ship-to-ship transfers. The value of the illicit coal trade during the period is estimated to be USD 370 million.

Amid an escalating series of sanctions resolutions against Pyongyang, the UN Security Council in 2017 passed a measure banning key exports including coal in a bid to reduce funding for North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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