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IMF 15/06 : ergste moet nog pas komen

85 Posts, Pagina: 1 2 3 4 5 » | Laatste
Kaiser
6
Worst of Crisis May Be Yet to Come: IMF Chief
ECONOMY, RECESSION, IMF, DOMINIQUE STRAUSS-KAHN
Reuters
| 15 Jun 2009 | 06:16 AM ET

The head of the IMF questioned on Monday any debate about when to roll back stimulus spending, saying the world economy had yet to weather the worst of a recession that claimed a record number of European jobs.

The 16-country euro zone lost a record 1.22 million jobs in the first quarter, official data showed. Employment during the first quarter fell 1.2 percent year-on-year, the deepest annual drop since measurements started in 1995.

Even if some form of economic recovery is not far off, analysts say unemployment will climb for many months to come.

Underlining the fragile state of the global economy, an influential economist said China would not see a rapid rebound and South Korea's finance minister said its economy was still sliding, although the pace had slowed.

But in southern Italy, Group of Eight finance ministers meeting at the weekend described their economies in the most positive terms since the collapse of U.S. bank Lehman Brothers nine months ago heightened the world's worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

"Their (G8) stance is that we are beginning to see some green shoots but nevertheless we have to be cautious," International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said during a visit to Kazakhstan. "The large part of the worst is not yet behind us."

Pressure has been building in the G8, particularly from fiscally conservative nations such as Germany and Canada, for plans to wind down stimulus as soon as it is no longer needed.

But ministers in Lecce differed over how quickly to start rolling back state spending plans and hiking interest rates.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner indicated the United States was unlikely to tighten policy soon, saying: "It is too early to shift toward policy restraint." Most experts do not expect major tightening of fiscal and monetary policy in the developed world before next year.

According to media, France is headed in the opposite direction. Paris plans to pump an extra 3.5 billion euros ($4.92 billion) into stimulus measures earmarked for 2010 and is preparing to increase its public budget deficit forecast for 2009, Les Echos newspaper reported on Sunday.

Fragile

Li Yang, a former adviser to the People's Bank of China, said he expected China's recovery to be "W-shaped" — meaning that growth will falter once fiscal and monetary stimulus wears off, before regaining momentum.

"China should not count on a turnaround of external demand to bring about its recovery," Li, director of the finance institute at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, was quoted by the Shanghai Securities News as saying.

In Britain, a leading business group said the country would pull out of recession earlier than previously forecast, but that a sustained recovery was not assured.

South Korean Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-hyun said it was too early to consider reversing stimulus policies. "The economy is certainly still sliding, although the pace of decline is slowing," he said. "Let me make it clear that we are not at the stage for a change in the aggressive fiscal stimulus and financial easing policy stance."

Aviation leaders attended the Paris Air Show on Monday expecting only crumbs of new business to bolster an industry hurt by the crisis, which has cast doubt on the ability of airlines to pay for the roughly $800 billion of planes on order.
# Click Here for More on the Paris Air Show

"It is out of the hands of Airbus and Boeing and in the hands of the travelling public, who are voting with their feet and not getting on planes or buying tickets," said Richard Aboulafia, vice president at U.S. aerospace and defense consultancy Teal Group.

Shares Slide

Shares fell with some market players saying the cautious tone from the G8 gathering had prompted investors to cut back their bets on riskier assets.

European shares shed 1.6 percent on Monday, tracking losses in Asia. Tokyo's Nikkei closed 1 percent lower.

The European benchmark index is up 35.9 percent from the lifetime low it hit on March 9, as investors have become less gloomy on the prospects for economic recovery.

"We've verified that markets have bottomed out but we have yet to see what sort of form the recovery will take and we need clear proof that it will continue," said Masayoshi Okamoto, head of trading at Jujiya Securities.
# Check European Markets Here
Copyright 2009 Reuters. Click for restrictions.

URL: www.cnbc.com/id/31364629/
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2009 CNBC.com
terug naar niveau vorig jaar.....
Kaiser
0
Manufacturing Index Shows Drop as Factories Slump

By: Reuters | 15 Jun 2009 | 09:09 AM ET

The slumping factory sector in New York state shrank at a more severe rate in June than during the previous month, the New York Federal Reserve said in a report on Monday.

CNBC.com

The New York Fed's "Empire State" general business conditions index fell to minus 9.41 in June from minus 4.55 in May. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a June reading of minus 4.5.

www.cnbc.com/id/31366701/print/1/disp...
Kaiser
0
ECB: 'Risico's financiële systeem blijven hoog'

Jean-Claude Trichet, de voorzitter van de ECB.

De Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) waarschuwt dat de risico's die op het financiële systeem van de eurozone wegen nog steeds hoog zijn. Dat blijkt uit een rapport van de ECB.

www.tijd.be/nieuws/economie-financien...
[verwijderd]
1
"ronde drie is aanstaande"
We zullen het met ons allen moeten betalen, hoe vervelend dat ook is.
Bezitters van bankaandelen kunnen alles kwijtraken, maar dat weet iedereen via de "spelregels"
...
Kaiser
0
Charts Predict: Dow Fading, 7,500 Likely

| 02 Jun 2009 |

The recent rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is in its "final stages," Roelof van den Akker, technical analyst at ING Wholesale, said Tuesday.

The dollar is likely to strengthen in the coming weeks, while the Dow will correct, van den Akker told CNBC.

As the dollar strengthens, the Dow will end its rally, topping around 9,000 and then correcting to 7,500, and "the development of a higher low should be expected between here and the end of July," he said.

"A weak US dollar is resulting in higher commodity prices, higher equity prices and lower bond prices," van den Akker said.

The euro-dollar cross has developed a wide trading range, with a lower end of $1.245 and an upper end of $1.45, he noted.

"We could see a top around $1.45, followed by the next correction and I would say a decline towards $1.34 in the coming weeks," van den Akker said.
2009 CNBC.com

URL: www.cnbc.com/id/31058579/
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0
quote:

HerrKaiser schreef:

Worst of Crisis May Be Yet to Come: IMF Chief
ECONOMY, RECESSION, IMF, DOMINIQUE STRAUSS-KAHN
Reuters
| 15 Jun 2009 | 06:16 AM ET

[....]
Fragile

Li Yang, a former adviser to the People's Bank of China, said he expected China's recovery to be "W-shaped" — meaning that growth will falter once fiscal and monetary stimulus wears off, before regaining momentum.

"China should not count on a turnaround of external demand to bring about its recovery," Li, director of the finance institute at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, was quoted by the Shanghai Securities News as saying.

[....]

Iemand bekend met de interne markt van China en de relatie m.b.t. economische groei ex -export en de interne groeipotentie?

Denk dat dat land best wel eens een grotere aanwakkeraar van het herstel kan zijn dan de VS; hoge vraag naar grondstoffen voor de interne markt; volop profiteren van de gunstige mogelijkheden t.o.v. de strategische positie die ze hadden t.t.v. de "bubbel" (ik geloof dat die toch structureel is maar dat terzijde) op de grondstoffenmarkt en op termijn weer goede export positie en nog hogere groei dan voor de crisis...?? h.w.s. wel beter strategisch gepositioneerd; vraag wat ze met al die vs-bonds aan moeten tot de VS weer eens wat gaat verdienen, dat wordt toch havens en vliegvelden kopen...; wel goed voor het herstel!
Kaiser
0
Credit Card Default Rate Hits Record High

Reuters
| 15 Jun 2009 | 03:08 PM ET

U.S. credit card defaults rose to record highs in May, with a steep deterioration of Bank of America's lending portfolio, in another sign that consumers remain under severe stress.

Delinquency rates—an indicator of future credit losses—fell across the industry, but analysts said the decline was due to a seasonal trend, as consumers used tax refunds to pay back debts, and they expect delinquencies to go up again in coming months.

lees alles op www.cnbc.com/id/31373145/

op naar de volgende crash !!!
[verwijderd]
1
Wat een heerlijk doemscenario; we gaan echt naar de bodem!!!!!

Joepie...kopuuuh!!!!!!
Aad de Vries
1
quote:

unveiledbailoutbullshit schreef:

Wat een heerlijk doemscenario; we gaan echt naar de bodem!!!!!

Joepie...kopuuuh!!!!!!
Joepie?

The Big Collapse Could Be Very Near !

* The current bear rally is catching most people by surprise. In the 1929 depression, the market recovered 50% from the low in 1929 of 198.69 to a high of 294.07 in 1930. Thereafter, it collapsed to 41.22 in 1932. No bear or bull market moves straight up or down. It moves in waves like high tide or low tide.

* The coming collapse of the bond market and the USD collapse will make the Oct 2008 stock market crash look like a walk in the past.

p.s. low AEX dit jaar: circa 195 en onlangs hebben we even 270 aangetikt... hmmm... trend lijkt tot op heden verdacht veel op.... joepie?
mercurius-adept
1
WASHINGTON - Het Internationaal Monetair Fonds (IMF) verwacht een 'stevige groei' van de Amerikaanse economie halverwege 2010. Wel blijven de crisis op de huizenmarkt en de stijgende rente nog punten van zorg.
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2
"Het beeindigen van subsystemen bij de banken"
De nog enkele beursgenoteerde NL-bankbedrijven zullen de beurs moeten verlaten, het is niet anders!
Onder staatstoezicht, en iedereen zal er aan moeten meebetalen om deze monsters in stand te doen houden ...(of niet natuurlijk)
Kaiser
0
Hong Kong's economy shrinks annualized 7.3% in Q1

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Hong Kong's economy contracted an annualized 7.3% in the first quarter, the Census & Statistic Department said Tuesday. The city's GDP totaled HK$380.1 billion ($49 .05 billion) in the three months ended March 31.

www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print...
Aad de Vries
1
quote:

mercurius-adept schreef:

WASHINGTON - Het Internationaal Monetair Fonds (IMF) verwacht een 'stevige groei' van de Amerikaanse economie halverwege 2010. Wel blijven de crisis op de huizenmarkt en de stijgende rente nog punten van zorg.
IMF loopt bijna altijd achter de feiten aan; IMF had ook the collapse van de financials verwacht en tot op heden heb ik nog niet veel van die collapse gezien... of moet het wellicht nog komen?
[verwijderd]
0
quote:

HerrKaiser schreef:

BNP:Euro May Fall on `Imploding' Credit

www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=...
Vroeger schreef men over de "dag dat de Dollar valt",..........en nu

Euro could fall to parity with dollar

bron; various bloomberg/NYTimes, etc. (zie ook hierboven)

>--:-)-->

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0
Weet wel dat mocht het slechtse uitkomen dat je te maken krijgt uiteindelijk met een keuze tussen

WO III en reisje naar Mars.
[verwijderd]
0
Het lijkt wel oorlog hier.
ING is heeft weleens 2,30 gestaan. Een kleine correctie is aannemelijk, om vervolgens gestaagt omhoog te gaan, want het herstil is ingezet!
[verwijderd]
0
quote:

leuke gast schreef:

Het lijkt wel oorlog hier.
ING is heeft weleens 2,30 gestaan. Een kleine correctie is aannemelijk, om vervolgens gestaagt omhoog te gaan, want het herstil is ingezet!
ING heeft ook weleens 36 euro gestaan.

het herstil? lol leuke

het herstel van ING heeft niet ingezet, men is nog steeds zoekende. ING is de grootste vraagteken op de beurs van dit moment, niemand weet de waarde van dit bedrijf.

ze mogen niet kapot dus waarde is niet nul maar wat is de prijs? wat kan ING presteren met een herfinancieringsrente van 4 procent? wat voor slechte leningen hebben ze nog?

werkelijk niemand die het weet.
[verwijderd]
0
quote:

Achilias schreef:

[quote=leuke gast]
Het lijkt wel oorlog hier.
ING is heeft weleens 2,30 gestaan. Een kleine correctie is aannemelijk, om vervolgens gestaagt omhoog te gaan, want het herstil is ingezet!
[/quote]

ING heeft ook weleens 36 euro gestaan.

het herstil? lol leuke

het herstel van ING heeft niet ingezet, men is nog steeds zoekende. ING is de grootste vraagteken op de beurs van dit moment, niemand weet de waarde van dit bedrijf.

ze mogen niet kapot dus waarde is niet nul maar wat is de prijs? wat kan ING presteren met een herfinancieringsrente van 4 procent? wat voor slechte leningen hebben ze nog?

werkelijk niemand die het weet.
De intrinsieke waarde is volgens mij wel bekend, ook het EV.
Maar ook het bedrijfs potentieel, lijkt me hoog van dit bedrijf. Als alle pin kastjes van ING verdwijnen, dan moeten we ver gaan lopen.
De schulden zijn ook bekend, maar ik bekijk het maar zo dat ING een hypotheek heeft bij de staat, voornaamste reden om andere bedrijven te kunnen blijven financieren.

Ongetwijfeld dat het voor de financials een moeilijke tijd is, daarom worden dezen als eerste afgestraft. Of beter gezegd deze koersen lopen vooruit op het gehele systeem.
Ik zelf denk niet dat we een AEX van 200 gaan zien, dit is een kleine correctie tegen de top weerstand, maar uiteindelijk moeten de reële cijfers de doorslag gaan geven.

Zodra dit gebeurd, dan knalt de beurs omhoog, dan moet je er wel inzitten. Momenteel kun je zeker laag inkopen.
Kaiser
1
Joblessness Continued to Rise In May In Nearly Every State

U.S. LABOR DEPARTMENT
Reuters
| 19 Jun 2009 | 12:24 PM ET

Signs that unemployment pains may be easing in individual US states in April disappeared by May, when jobless rates jumped in 48 states andthe District of Columbia, according to data released on Friday.

Michigan again reported the highest jobless rate of 14.1 percent, followed by Oregon, which notched 12.4 percent, its highest on record, the U.S. Labor Department said.

Not only did Michigan hold the highest spot in terms of unemployment, a position it has had since October, but the state also experienced the largest monthly increase in its rate as two American auto be he moths—General Motors and Chrysler—struggled.

Michigan has had an unemployment rate of 7.0 percent or higher since April 2007, and broke past 9.0 percent in December.

Oregon, which has seen its rate spike over the last few months, had the largest increase from a year earlier, 6.7 percentage points, the Labor Department said.

The national unemployment rate last month was 9.4 percent, and 18 states recorded rates that were higher. In six states and the District of Columbia rates were greater than 10 percent, meaning that in those states at least one in 10 people does not have a job.

In Nebraska, the rate fell slightly to 4.4 percent from 4.5 percent in April, and in Vermont, the rate remained unchanged at 7.3 percent.

California registered its highest unemployment rate onrecord, 11.5 percent, and also lost the most jobs, 68,900, of all the states in May.

Southern states, too, also reached historical highs, with North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida and Georgia all registering their highest unemployment rates on record.

At the same time, the number of jobs dropped in 39 states,but increased in 11 states and the District of Columbia. California had the largest decrease in positions, 68,900,followed by Floriday, which lost 61,000 jobs. Massachusetts gained the most jobs, 4,900.
Copyright 2009 Reuters. Click for restrictions.

URL: www.cnbc.com/id/31446512/
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op naar de volgende crash !!!!!!!!!!!
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